2026-2027 El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes.

1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with....

My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe something like this?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, this would be the first time we have had three consecutive -PDO El Nino events. If it did flip, I think it would go back after the El Nino subsides....I'm not saying the cold phase is over. I don't think that ends until beyond the turn of the decade.

Come to think of it, 2015-16 is the only el nino post 2002-03 that is a +PDO.

2004-05 -PDO

2006-07 -PDO

2009-10 neutral PDO (November December -PDO; January February +PDO)

2015-16 +PDO

2018-19 -PDO

2023-24 -PDO

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Come to think of it, 2015-16 is the only el nino post 2002-03 that is a +PDO.

2004-05 -PDO

2006-07 -PDO

2009-10 neutral PDO (November December -PDO; January February +PDO)

2015-16 +PDO

2018-19 -PDO

2023-24 -PDO

Good all on 2009-2010...that was a slight -PDO......so there was three consecutive prior to 2014. I feel like if we remain negative PDO again, it's going to be more like 2004 and 2009 in that it won't be severely so. I could see something like that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2004-2005 may be a fine analog if you account for the fact that El Nino will be stronger.

[snowman19]

Given the PDO changes since 2023-24 I very seriously doubt the PDO stays negative if we see a strong to super El Niño. Here is a really informative series of tweets from a Met out in Colorado. He is completely neutral and has zero bias for cold or warmth:

[snowman19]

We have also had three consecutive El Ninos that have been shitty for snowfall in the NE....I would have to look, but I'm not sure we have ever had four consecutive. Some of this stuff is a bit anecdotal, but I think it does have value in hedging towards more likely outcomes.
1987-1988, 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 is the only other example of three consecutive that I can come up with....
My early hunch is moderate to strong (sub 2.0) likely basin-wide El Nino with Modoki a lesser possibility.

I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

[michsnowfreak]

I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. 

Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

 

 

 

 

We'll see. I'd bet against it, but my early guesses are often wrong because they're just that....guesses.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.

IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive 

[40/70 Benchmark]

People saying "I don't see any sign of the PDO flipping"...no shit, we don't see any sign of the El Nino yet. It's like convincing yourself on the ocean that it's going to remain snowing before the low comes closer and the wind flips onshore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

PDO was only -1.01 for February....I don't get the reluctance to fathom a flip in the face of a strong El Nino.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Feb 2002 -1.51, Feb 1957 it was -1.57....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

PDO isn't as strongly connected to ENSO as you would think.. here are the Strongest El Nino's. 2 other areas in the globe have bigger anomalies

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. 

Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one.

The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot:

1) 2014:

It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified

It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified

Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified

 

2) 2012:

It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified

It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified

It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified

3) 2017:

In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified!

In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified!

—————

I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI.

———————
Sources:

Euro progs

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
 

ONI:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot:

 It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified

It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified

Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified

It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified

It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified

It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified

 

I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI.

Sources:

Euro progs

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table
 

ONI:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

 

 

Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time.

I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina.

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time.

I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina.

The Euro also repeatedly (April through August) predicted a moderate El Niño ONI in 2012 and ONI ended up peaking at only +0.4.

In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified!

In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified!

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. 

Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one.

14-15. Models went strong or super to begin with. But that one hinged on strong WWBs in the summer and early autumn that never materialized. This one is building much earlier. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PDO isn't as strongly connected to ENSO as you would think.. here are the Strongest El Nino's. 2 other areas in the globe have bigger anomalies

Well, they are correlated....and I feel it will flip with a strong El Nino on the heels of two consecutive -PDO El Nino events.

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time.

I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina.

I called BS on that early on.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

two consecutive -PDO El Nino events.

Feels like another superstition. If anything 2 consecutive -PDO El Nino events should favor another one vs something opposite. Weather can be cyclical.  I do think the fundamentals of PDO state may have started to change with the Solar Max/aurora borealis the last 2 years, since May 2024. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Feels like another superstition. If anything 2 consecutive -PDO El Nino events should favor another one vs something opposite. Weather can be cyclical.  I do think the fundamentals of PDO state may have started to change with the Solar Max/aurora borealis the last 2 years, since May 2024. 

Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay.....I bet you $100 the PDO averages positive this winter if El Nino peaks at 1.5 or higher this coming fall.

It probably will average positive.. but I think it could be in the ~+0.50 range vs the +1/1.5 that you might think goes with Stronger El Nino. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It probably will average positive.. but I think it could be in the ~+0.50 range vs the +1/1.5 that you might think goes with Stronger El Nino. 

Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay, you agree with me because I never stated the second half of that. Sounds like a delusion. jk

Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO in El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Well obviously Winters are better if the PDO is strong vs near neutral. You can still get a NE warm Winter in near neutral PDO

I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If it's an uber-even over 2.0, yes...we're screwed.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I understand that....you have a preconceived notion of my expectation for the coming winter. All I'm saying is that if El Nino is robust, the PDO will flip. Agree it will be warm, but I doubt that it will be prohibitively so for the northeast.

Let's see.. it will be interesting to see if it goes with El Nino and pulls a 2014-2016, or if it continues to meander near neutral despite strong ENSO forcing like 23-24.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It will absolutely be warmer than this past winter, regardless.