2026-2027 El Nino

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are currently on track for a very strong event potentially recording an ONI of +2.0 or greater like we recently experienced in 23-24 based on current OHC and WWB intensity unless it’s interrupted by EWBs next few months.

The biggest factor will be getting the WWBs to continue through June in order for the subsurface El Niño signal to become fully established at the surface.

We can remember the strong EWB in June 2014 which halted the El Niño development when the models had been forecasting +2.0 for 2014-2015. It’s funny how we eventually got the super El Niño a year later. So it was delayed but not denied. 

That was the last time that the models forecast a +2.0 event that didn’t verify. So unless this process gets derailed by EWBs next few months, there won’t be anything to slow the development going forward.

We will need about 3 more months of observations to know if this one can reach its top potential. 
 

https://news.yale.edu/2016/02/08/new-insights-stalled-el-ni-o-2014

 

Yea, the only El Niño in the last 45+ years even remotely comparable to this one is 1997-98. Even the 1982-83 and 2015-16 Nino’s weren’t this far advanced in March. If those twin TC’s verify next week, and that’s starting to look likely, IMO, this is a “high-end” strong El Niño at minimum with prospects for a super event going up a lot…..

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is interesting.. this is March before a later in the year El Nino. Nice south-based +PDO orientation in the N. Pacific. 

Nino 4 also starts warming early, which we are seeing now

Could be basin-wide

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Let's see how this plays out. Imo, it's amping Nino 3/3.4 vs the far east

[mitchnick]

The Stormsurf link that I included in my post the other day has just added CFS2 Relative Nino plumes to its links, both raw and bias corrected. They are a little past half way down. Updated daily, they'll at least give us trends, which should make for a nice roller coaster ride over the next 9 or 10 months. Lol

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/27/2026 at 9:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought I recall you posting something to the effect of a "typical front-loaded La Nina winter"? Perhaps I'm mistaken.

Yea, I mixed up February and March, but other than that...one of my better efforts in the aggregate.

This wasn't a typical la nina at all, but when looking at the season as a whole, it definitely was front-mid loaded here. It was great to have plenty of snow/snowcover right at kickoff during the coldest, darkest days. But I could've used one more snowstorm in late Feb/Mar, sun angle be damned.

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/27/2026 at 9:38 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I know, I'm not looking forward to the 1,000 posts about how "everything's warming in this new climate"

Neither am I. And after 2 cold winters (even though the cold surely would've been colder if this was 15+ years ago) its bound to be at a fever pitch.

[TheClimateChanger]

On 3/27/2026 at 8:43 AM, GaWx said:

 This summer forecast is from pro-met Travis Hartman of Vaisala Xweather. I received this yesterday free of charge as I’m not a paying client.

 “What kind of summer are we walking into?

For 2026, the early answer is: another warmer-than-normal season in the US and Europe with important regional caveats.

Ocean signals point to warmth
A major driver of the expected heat is the ocean. Global sea surface temperatures remain historically warm, and the North Atlantic is firmly in its positive multidecadal phase, also known as warmer-than-average Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (+AMO). In plain terms, the Atlantic has been running hot for decades, and warm oceans amplify heat on land. A warmer Atlantic tends to pump up the Bermuda High, helping lock in warmer conditions across the Eastern US.

Enter El Niño—but with nuance
Models suggest that El Niño will develop through the summer. Historically, El Niño can take some of the edge off the heat in the Midwest and East by shifting the jet stream. But whether that cooling influence is realized depends on an unlikely character: West Pacific typhoons. Their recurving paths can tug on the jet stream in ways that promote cooler conditions across the US. Fewer typhoons, on the other hand, leave the hotter background state unchallenged. And recent decades have seen a trend toward fewer summer typhoons overall.

So, what does this mean for 2026?
The forecast calls for summer 2026 to rank as the 11th-hottest since 1950, with the strongest confidence in significant heat across the West and South. The Midwest and East are the wild cards—torn between ocean-driven warmth and the possibility (but not the guarantee) of El Niño-related moderation.”

Interesting. He says another warm summer but then explicitly predicts the 2nd coldest summer since 2019, and only slightly warmer than 2023. Especially if the heat is out west as he suggests, I think most people will consider that to be one of the coldest summers in recent memory.

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. He says another warm summer but then explicitly predicts the 2nd coldest summer since 2019, and only slightly warmer than 2023. Especially if the heat is out west as he suggests, I think most people will consider that to be one of the coldest summers in recent memory.

They forecast based on population weighted because their forecasts are for the purpose of forecasting AC usage as opposed to what you look at, which isn’t pop weighted. Does that relate to your post?

[TheClimateChanger]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

They forecast based on population weighted because their forecasts are for the purpose of forecasting AC usage as opposed to what you look at, which isn’t pop weighted. Does that relate to your post?

No, I just meant they are forecasting it as 11th warmest since 1950. I wouldn’t call that “another warm” summer. That’s colder than 5 of the last 6 summers, so I think most here would consider that to be a pretty cool summer.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, the only El Niño in the last 45+ years even remotely comparable to this one is 1997-98. Even the 1982-83 and 2015-16 Nino’s weren’t this far advanced in March. If those twin TC’s verify next week, and that’s starting to look likely, IMO, this is a “high-end” strong El Niño at minimum with prospects for a super event going up a lot…..

There also seems to be a type of underlying pattern with pairs of winters sharing similar overlapping locations of where their primary ridge and trough locations are found. We can take this back to at least the 09-10 to 10-11 winters. Same story for the 2020s so far.

So in a very general sense perhaps the next few winters will find a way to share this similarity also. Obviously, this is all in hindsight and we will need to see how things evolve heading into next winter and beyond.

It’s interesting that the models are indicating a potentially robust El Niño development in 26-27 following two winters with strong blocking across the North Pacific into Western North America like we saw following 13-14 and 14-15. 

 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

The big WWB has begun to show up on visible satellite

[snowman19]

 

“Epic reversal of winds in the equatorial Pacific immediately east of the 180° line.
This condition, which would extend until completing the second half of April, is and will continue producing a massive warm Kelvin Wave that will arrive at the South American coastal edge toward the end of autumn.
It's the stuff of legends.
It could compromise the winter season on the Peruvian coast. By warming it.
#ElNINO”

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm curious to see if the N. Pacific PNA pattern corresponds with this April Kelvin wave. Research I have done in the pasts says there is some time-0 correlation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

This wasn't a typical la nina at all, but when looking at the season as a whole, it definitely was front-mid loaded here. It was great to have plenty of snow/snowcover right at kickoff during the coldest, darkest days. But I could've used one more snowstorm in late Feb/Mar, sun angle be damned.

it was mid-loaded with regard to snowfall here.

I agree about needing one more major storm to be considered a great season...I said the same, exact thing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ah.....it's the time of year when @snowman19begins scanning the globe ....he's finally come upon hieroglyphics scribbled on a pyramid that when translated, offers conclusive evidence that El Nino will in fact be east-based, and winter is doomed. Love the dude's passion.....he's very eclectic and cultured in the he finds a way to ram it up the keister of winter enthusiasts in 17 different languages between spring and fall.

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ah.....it's the time of year when @snowman19begins scanning the globe ....he's finally come upon hieroglyphics scribbled on a pyramid that when translated, offers conclusive evidence that El Nino will in fact be east-based, and winter is doomed. Love the dude's passion.....he's very eclectic and cultured in the he finds a way to ram it up the keister of winter enthusiasts in 17 different languages between spring and fall.

I love how it triggers you. It’s honestly hilarious 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, snowman19 said:

I love how it triggers you. It’s honestly hilarious 

I'm not triggered at all....just having fun.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

There also seems to be a type of underlying pattern with pairs of winters sharing similar overlapping locations of where their primary ridge and trough locations are found. We can take this back to at least the 09-10 to 10-11 winters. Same story for the 2020s so far.

So in a very general sense perhaps the next few winters will find a way to share this similarity also. Obviously, this is all in hindsight and we will need to see how things evolve heading into next winter and beyond.

It’s interesting that the models are indicating a potentially robust El Niño development in 26-27 following two winters with strong blocking across the North Pacific into Western North America like we saw following 13-14 and 14-15. 

 

 

 

 

I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have said it before, but I will be STUNNED if we pull do go on to have a bonafide El Niño AND the -PDO persists....I just don't see that happening. It will be interesting to dive into which El Niño seasons were very mild across the east in the absence of a -PDO and Uber-strong intensity. I think it may be a relatively short list of awful winter seasons with a RONI below 2.0 and +PDO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have said it before, but I will be STUNNED if we pull do go on to have a bonafide El Niño AND the -PDO persists....I just don't see that happening. It will be interesting to dive into which El Niño seasons were very mild across the east in the absence of a -PDO and Uber-strong intensity. I think it may be a relatively short list of awful winter seasons with a RONI below 2.0 and +PDO.

Just to be clear, I am NOT suggesting that a RONI over 2.0 cannot materialize....I just do not think that it will. However, too early to rule anything out.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree concerning the pattern of stagnating patterns....I've noticed that, as well. Obviously if the data continues to support it, that's one thing, but at this early juncture I reman skeptical of an uber El Niño in such rapid succession with 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. If this winter is a mild, it's going to have to be due to the warm ENSO overwhelming because I just can not envision reverting to the cold west/warm east configuration of the 2020s with he tropical Pacific moving the direction that it is.

The Winter US Temp pattern is like this coming El Nino has been building for 2 years.. At +3std's 2 cold Winters in the NE/Warm SW and Rockies precede an El Nino temp pattern year 3

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The Winter US Temp pattern is like this coming El Nino has been building for 2 years.. At +3std's 2 cold Winters in the NE/Warm SW and Rockies precede an El Nino temp pattern year 3

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, I'm not debating El Niño.....what is in question is intensity and persistence of -PDO. I think the largest concern for winter enthusiasts is a 1991-1992 type of outcome....whereas the PDO recovers to near neutral and it's still awful as the PV is very strong constricted, but I think Pinatub may have played a role there.

Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there. 

[GaWx]

Impressive activity ITT so early with already page 12 while still in March! How does this compare to when prior ENSO titled annual threads reached page 12? All of these started in Feb:

2025-6: well into April

2024-5: May

2023-4: April

2022-3: can’t find

2021-2: September 

 

 So, 2026-7 is the most active of these so early thanks in part to the anticipated amazingly strong WWB, which better happen this time or else…

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there. 

I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location.

Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think there are other factors that made 92-93 through 95-96 colder.....volanic impacts vary greatly depending on location.

Yea, IDK....I find it hard to believe the N Pacific is going to maintain -PDO for a third consecutive El Niño and revert back to cold west/warm east configuration.

The SW heat ridge/drought started in 1995, and 1998 is when the -PDO began.. that SW pattern is amped max right now. I personally think we are still in -PDO general and the Southwest pattern also goes with +AMO. Solar Max may have changed things a bit though. 

I've looked at what 2 cold NE Winter's in a row means for year 3.. it's neutral, 50/50. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Very positive +NAO this March

33 of the last 46 March's have been +NAO (78%)

It has been an anchor month for the decadal state. Jan, Feb, Dec have all been positive in the last 46 years too. Europe's skew of snowless Winters, and especially Germany, has been a little altered by the decadal NAO progression.