Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps

[WEATHER53]

This concept is solid but lack of participation exemplifies the model hugging and loving 

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

This concept is solid but lack of participation exemplifies the model hugging and loving 

We still rely on model guidance itt, but no snow map hugging, and no bitching and complaining after every 'bad' op run.

[CAPE]

Not enthused about this storm potential overall, but given the 6z run and that 12z was close- it just missed a phase(occurs too late offshore) and so off the coast the primary shortwave goes without gaining enough latitude. Main takeaway even with a miss at 12z, the best physics based model we have access to thinks its cold enough to snow in much of the region given a strong LP and track to our south, at least for now.

 

[Ji]

I didnt love the long range EPS--seemed a bit warmer. Trough was deeper on west coast. Not a shutout pattern but this would favor 40N more i think

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I didnt love the long range EPS--seemed a bit warmer. Trough was deeper on west coast. Not a shutout pattern but this would favor 40N more i think

maybe its a delay but not denied but we cant really afford a delay lol

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe its a delay but not denied but we cant really afford a delay lol

Yeah its actually 'caving" a bit to the GEFS, which hasn't been as enthusiastic about the favorable look in the NA or the western trough weakening/progressing eastward after the 20th. We shall see.

[Ji]

DT is ending winter based on the GFS MJO that takes it strongly into 4,5,6

meanwhile Euro loves the non impact neutral circle

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

DT is ending winter based on the GFS MJO that takes it strongly into 4,5,6

meanwhile Euro loves the non impact neutral circle

lol DT. He is still relevant?

[Ji]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

lol DT. He is still relevant?

He still has a huge following so yes!

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol DT. He is still relevant?

I work with a lot of Richmond folks and whenever they know I like snow or weather they ask about DT.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I haven't really paid much attention to the somewhat longer range in awhile.  But is the previously thought more favorable NA later this month and early March now looking less likely?  I recall there was some discussion awhile back about a PV split, and being on our side of the hemisphere, with a good shot at a return to more blocking around that time period.  Not sure of the details though.  It doesn't seem like the Pac side is going to do much to become better.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I haven't really paid much attention to the somewhat longer range in awhile.  But is the previously thought more favorable NA later this month and early March now looking less likely?  I recall there was some discussion awhile back about a PV split, and being on our side of the hemisphere, with a good shot at a return to more blocking around that time period.  Not sure of the details though.  It doesn't seem like the Pac side is going to do much to become better.

i think there will be mini windows for winter weather. I dont think a cold or a warm pattern is going to lock in. Lot of variability.....perhaps we score once or twice

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Ji said:

i think there will be mini windows for winter weather. I dont think a cold or a warm pattern is going to lock in. Lot of variability.....perhaps we score once or twice

Well, getting into the time of year when we typically don't "lock in" on any cold/warm setup so I guess that's not a surprise.  I still think we don't get shut out the remainder of the season, and perhaps not even the rest of this month.  A decent moderate event, maybe on the order of a SECS-MECS, would still have to be on the table I'd like to believe, between now and early-mid March.  And perhaps a second event of some sort too if lucky.

[osfan24]

53 minutes ago, Ji said:

DT is ending winter based on the GFS MJO that takes it strongly into 4,5,6

meanwhile Euro loves the non impact neutral circle

Kinda weird since he would just regurgitate anything the Euro spits out.

[bncho]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Not enthused about this storm potential overall, but given the 6z run and that 12z was close- it just missed a phase(occurs too late offshore) and so off the coast the primary shortwave goes without gaining enough latitude. Main takeaway even with a miss at 12z, the best physics based model we have access to thinks its cold enough to snow in much of the region given a strong LP and track to our south, at least for now.

what does that that insinuate? there are better models out there that aren't available to us?

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

what does that that insinuate? there are better models out there that aren't available to us?

No. Some prefer the AI models(also accessible). They aren't physics based in the traditional sense. So I am referring to the 'traditional' model guidance. Euro imo is superior to GFS, CMC, etc.

[cbmclean]

Some background on AI models.  https://x.com/i/status/2021333729088585882

[Ji]

Yeah its actually 'caving" a bit to the GEFS, which hasn't been as enthusiastic about the favorable look in the NA or the western trough weakening/progressing eastward after the 20th. We shall see.

And we back

[CAPE]

@Ji

Unlike the 6z run yesterday which had a perfect phase with the NS vorticity digging southward in behind the SS energy at the right time, the latest 6z run has a 'bad' phase. That NS piece is strong and gets involved too late, but rapidly intensifies what was a weak surface low, and its initially too close to the coast.

Next panel-

 

[CAPE]

The other problem with this run is, where's the 50-50 low? If it were in place, as that low strengthens and moves off the coast a bit it would probably snow.

[CAPE]

The 0z CMC is pretty much what we want- the 50-50 low is strong and somewhat displaced southward, locking in HP to the north. There is no phase and the developing coastal low is relatively weak, but good enough and the track is close to ideal.