Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps

[WEATHER53]

This concept is solid but lack of participation exemplifies the model hugging and loving 

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

This concept is solid but lack of participation exemplifies the model hugging and loving 

We still rely on model guidance itt, but no snow map hugging, and no bitching and complaining after every 'bad' op run.

[CAPE]

Not enthused about this storm potential overall, but given the 6z run and that 12z was close- it just missed a phase(occurs too late offshore) and so off the coast the primary shortwave goes without gaining enough latitude. Main takeaway even with a miss at 12z, the best physics based model we have access to thinks its cold enough to snow in much of the region given a strong LP and track to our south, at least for now.

 

[Ji]

I didnt love the long range EPS--seemed a bit warmer. Trough was deeper on west coast. Not a shutout pattern but this would favor 40N more i think

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I didnt love the long range EPS--seemed a bit warmer. Trough was deeper on west coast. Not a shutout pattern but this would favor 40N more i think

maybe its a delay but not denied but we cant really afford a delay lol

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe its a delay but not denied but we cant really afford a delay lol

Yeah its actually 'caving" a bit to the GEFS, which hasn't been as enthusiastic about the favorable look in the NA or the western trough weakening/progressing eastward after the 20th. We shall see.

[Ji]

DT is ending winter based on the GFS MJO that takes it strongly into 4,5,6

meanwhile Euro loves the non impact neutral circle