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February 2026 General Discussion


Spartman
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It's pretty surprising how a couple weeks ago this month was looking to be cold, and now we're in full blown torch mode. February sure has been one of extremes in recent years. Either it's our snowiest month, or we cook. 

The system on Thursday has my attention. If this trends well it may be my first chase of the year. 479222569_Screenshot2026-02-16at08-31-50day4prob.gif(GIFImage815555pixels).thumb.png.7b3358b6c207ca5da85650bdcf41bed8.png

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2 hours ago, outflow said:

Never seen air quality alerts for melting snow before, this a new thing?

They issued because snow thats been on the ground all winter traps pollutants like road salt/exhaust/etc and its melting without aid of any wind and instead a temperature inversion, so those pollutants are hanging in the air instead of mixed out from the wind.

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With the incoming stm, the forecast for stiff E/ENE winds is going to blow a large mass of ice right into the W shore of the Lake. By Thurs into Friday, that will probably open up the waters where the ice currently sits. If that happens, with an ENE/NE wind, a long fetch of marine air over the ice, with lower pressures, could produce some good LES. Models are all over the place for that scenario, tho. Will be interesting to watch. I've seen 1-2' of LES hit under the right scenario. Last time was over DLH in 2022 I believe. More specifically over Park Point into the SW burbs of DLH below the hill.

Feb 16 sat ice W Lake Superior.gif

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34 minutes ago, Brian D said:

With the incoming stm, the forecast for stiff E/ENE winds is going to blow a large mass of ice right into the W shore of the Lake. By Thurs into Friday, that will probably open up the waters where the ice currently sits. If that happens, with an ENE/NE wind, a long fetch of marine air over the ice, with lower pressures, could produce some good LES. Models are all over the place for that scenario, tho. Will be interesting to watch. 

Feb 16 sat ice W Lake Superior.gif

What is hard to see, is the clear, thin ice nearer the W shore. All that ice will break up, and pile. The ice you see is older, med thick ice that will plow into the W areas.

Here's todays ice maps using the thickness colors, with egg codes. BTW, that ice in S L Michigan shouldn't be around much longer under warm conditions, with only 20% along the SW shore. May take a little longer with the other ice along the S/SE areas at 90%, and a little thicker. 

W Lakes ice Feb 16.gif

E Lakes ice Feb 16.gif

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