Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Ratios are really getting up there now. I'd guess 17:1 or maybe 20:1  I've had just over .25 liquid equivalent so far. Most modeling had me maxing out around that amount. 

 

 

19 here as well. 4" Accumulated now. 

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Yeah I think most modeling showed light snow before midnight and after 10 am or so tomorrow, and most of our accumulation came from the midnight to 10 am period. The question is, do I stay up late to see it or do I get up early? Or do I just make some more coffee and go from there? haha

I strongly recommend never sleeping as long as snow is falling. It's what I do. 

[bearman]

a

Now that I look at it again it looks like it is drying up to the West.  The hope is that the returns in and near Maryville will need to fill in or we will be done for the evening. They are backing up I just don't know it they will make it back to us or not.

[WintryMixmaster]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I strongly recommend never sleeping as long as snow is falling. It's what I do. 

Growing up, I remember staying up late and watching the radar and the rain/slow line creep towards my backyard, setting an alarm for 3 am or whenever the changeover was supposed to occur, and going out to measure right beforehand. My mom (who had to get up at 6 am for work) absolutely hated it, but I had the most accurate snowfall measurement around! haha

The fact that snow is more rare here actually makes it even more magical. It really feels like every second of it is special and I just want to look out the window and daydream

[bearman]

6 minutes ago, bcxVoL05 said:

 At least I got 2 happy boys out of it haha...

Nothing more important enjoy!

[Vol4Life]

5 minutes ago, bearman said:

a

Now that I look at it again it looks like it is drying up to the West.  The hope is that the returns in and near Maryville will need to fill in or we will be done for the evening. They are backing up I just don't know it they will make it back to us or not.

Yep..noticed the same thing too.  By the way, looks like we live really close to each other.

[WintryMixmaster]

3 minutes ago, bearman said:

a

Now that I look at it again it looks like it is drying up to the West.  The hope is that the returns in and near Maryville will need to fill in or we will be done for the evening. They are backing up I just don't know it they will make it back to us or not.

I feel like I remember looking at the simulated radar last night and watching it look exactly like that, but then slowly filling in to the west and being like "I need to remind myself tomorrow not to panic and that when the ULL gets closer, the snow will pick up"

... now that I said that, watch that just end up being the cutoff haha

[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, bearman said:

a

Now that I look at it again it looks like it is drying up to the West.  The hope is that the returns in and near Maryville will need to fill in or we will be done for the evening. They are backing up I just don't know it they will make it back to us or not.

Yeah the gradient is gonna be rough according to the models (and what has me nervous about this system) any wobbling can have big impacts here 

[Hurricaneguy]

Pushing 3'' now. No way am I sleeping tonight with the heaviest bands yet to arrive. I think areas east of I81 are in for something special. I'm normally thrilled to have what I have now and it still could be snowing 12 hrs from now. Just unreal 

[Jed33]

Really coming down now. Closing in on 2in! Temp 23

[bearman]

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Yeah the gradient is gonna be rough according to the models (and what has me nervous about this system) any wobbling can have big impacts here 

Yeah, I am in the 3 to 4 according to NWS, but it is close.  I was hoping for more, but I would love to get that.  I know you have had it rough for a while as well, hope we both score tonight.

[bearman]

8 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

I feel like I remember looking at the simulated radar last night and watching it look exactly like that, but then slowly filling in to the west and being like "I need to remind myself tomorrow not to panic and that when the ULL gets closer, the snow will pick up"

... now that I said that, watch that just end up being the cutoff haha

Here's hoping for the fill in.  Glad you shared, that gives me some hope. Yes, we do live close.

[Tucker1027]

I think the first batch of snow is all we are gonna get in Chattanooga to be honest


.

[WintryMixmaster]

Just now, bearman said:

Here's hoping for the fill in.  Glad you shared, that gives me some hope. Yes, we do live close.

The last HRRR has us actually getting no snow at the moment (it's still coming down lightly at my house), and building back to our side of town around 2 AM and hanging around through 2 PM, with 3-4" on top of what we already have. Which I think would put us about on schedule for the median model result for our area 

[WintryMixmaster]

I feel like the timing of this storm was really lucky... with such light/moderate rates over a long period, I feel like the sun angle could've eaten a good chunk of our totals had this hit during the day even with the cold temps. But with the bulk of the remaining snow arriving for Knox County between 2 AM and noon, we should've have to worry about that (just have to worry about that sharp gradient wherever it ends up setting up shop). I think I'm going to set an alarm for 4 am or so and check back in then to see how things are progressing, the light snow has tapered to flurries in my backyard at the moment with 0.3" on the ground so far

[ShawnEastTN]

19 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

The last HRRR has us actually getting no snow at the moment (it's still coming down lightly at my house), and building back to our side of town around 2 AM and hanging around through 2 PM, with 3-4" on top of what we already have. Which I think would put us about on schedule for the median model result for our area 

Yeah that's kind of what I anticipate is a lull until around 2-3 when snow fills back in and then hangs around.  Hangs around longer the further east you are.  For most all of this is really bonus snow.

[Stovepipe]

16 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

The last HRRR has us actually getting no snow at the moment (it's still coming down lightly at my house), and building back to our side of town around 2 AM and hanging around through 2 PM, with 3-4" on top of what we already have. Which I think would put us about on schedule for the median model result for our area 

2 AM is the magic hour.  If the HRRR is right we'll be entering the teens with QPF broadly over us, I'm interested to see what that's gonna look like.  I'm currently 23.9 with steady light snow, the wind has picked up.

[Jed33]

Current view from upstairs looking out over the winter wonderland.

[BlunderStorm]

Getting frigid out there! 16.5F. Rates have picked up yet flakes are falling individually like grains of sand. 3 1/2 inches on the measurement surface and a snowpack of 4 1/2 inches in the grass. Sledding should be fun tomorrow! I'm calling this event a win

 

[bearman]

Yep it is time to try and go to sleep we have stopped here with the snow.  Hopefully we will wake up to some big rates.

[Reb]

What’s everyone doing to stay up all night? We could’ve all rented out a Gatlinburg air bnb for this one but our luck it would have busted lol

[Scottie16]

ULL finally moved and allowed the cold air to come off the plateau. You can see it on the lower level water vapor. I just dropped from 28.8 to 26.2 in under 10’mins


.

[Scottie16]

.

[Scottie16]

Went into a light flurry lull for 30ish minsZ light snow has returned. 1/2 inch so far


.

[1234snow]

Average of 3 inches. Hard to get a good measurement when it is coming a mini blizzard. Now I know why the birds were going crazy this morning.

[Stovepipe]

The band from Norris to Maynardville is expanding south and might sweep through here.  23 degrees.

[John1122]

The radar cleared over me, but I'm in a thick fog of small flakes. Think the snow is falling from below radar range here. 

Midnight update. 

 

[Jed33]

Just measured 2.5 it’s coming down now. I’m gonna try to sleep yeah right, we all know how that’s gonna turn out! 

[bearman]

5 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Just measured 2.5 it’s coming down now. I’m gonna try to sleep yeah right, we all know how that’s gonna turn out! 

We are still just getting non radar light snow and I can not sleep Who are you kidding. I am really wanting this to fill in and see snow at these temps and Ratios.

[GBOVolz]

The band from Norris to Maynardville is expanding south and might sweep through here.  23 degrees.

I’m getting it now… absolutely puking it


.