February 2026

[Weatheriscool]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, that is a pretty big pattern reversal being shown across 12z modeling.  Both the 12z GFS and Euro are close to something decent.  At the very least, winter temps are back on the map by next Sunday....and then more thereafter.  It is uncanny how close that is to this last cold evolution from Christmas to January 11th.  

Looks like we are getting closer to something next weekend

[Vol4Life]

12z GFS is still showing potential for next weekend….slider that turns into a Nor’easter 

[BNAwx]

FWIW, the ICON has it as well. 

[Golf757075]

Without the euro on board, probably not happening. Still hopeful we have one last chance in March.

[Vol4Life]

4 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

Without the euro on board, probably not happening. Still hopeful we have one last chance in March.

The Euro was close.  GFS kind of led the way for the last storm from a storm signal standpoint (about 6-8 days out).

[Carvers Gap]

The problem w/ the Euro all winter is that it's too dry.  With both the GFS and CMC showing the strong potential for strong amplification....I think we at minimum see an upslope event for northwest facing slopes.

BTW....go check out the Mammoth webcams.  4-8' w/ this storm.  100mph winds on top.  Even by there standards, this is decent gig.

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

 

[Carvers Gap]

I am beginning to think that there is some connection between snow and Mammoth and cold temps here about 1-2 weeks later.

[John1122]

The Mammoth webcam right now is the hardest wind driven snow I've ever seen. The visibility is zero essentially. 

[Carvers Gap]

Mammoth was WILD last night!!!  

The 6z AIFS Euro has a "north of I40" track for the storm we have been discussing.  I think it is likely more of a KY storm w/ wrap around, upslope snow here....but that is a pretty big shift.  It went from nothing to something for snow.

[Math/Met]

Weathernext 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM and GFS are portraying a track which wouldn't take much to make it really interesting.  Thanks @Math/Metfor the Google AI run.  Wow.

[Carvers Gap]

Check this Mammoth cam out....

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

[KakashiHatake2000]

wow just checked  one hour later and the snow is really coming down and blowing all over the place blizzard like conditions

[Weatheriscool]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Check this Mammoth cam out....

https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam

That is crazy they cannot possibly let people ski in weather like that I mean you could easily get disoriented and lost in that kind of snow. 

[*Flash*]

Pretty wild to think BNA just went above average on its CF6, a testament to the air mass behind Winter Storm Fern. Lows still a degree below normal as of today.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Weatheriscool said:

That is crazy they cannot possibly let people ski in weather like that I mean you could easily get disoriented and lost in that kind of snow. 

Yes, they are closed today.  Other than the obvious, the real danger is skiing in deep snow on ungroomed trails.  Tree wells and falling off the edge of groomed areas....one can just get buried and suffocate. Plus, right now, they won't operate lifts with that wind.  It is absolutely insane right now.  We stayed (this summer) about four apartment complexes down the road from the Mammoth cam and it is just crazy how little you can see in that wind driven snow.  Pretty much whiteout conditions at 9,000'.  I can't imagine what it is between 12,000-14,000' in the Sierra. 

[Jed33]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yes, they are closed today.  Other than the obvious, the real danger is skiing in deep snow on ungroomed trails.  Tree wells and falling off the edge of groomed areas....one can just get buried and suffocate. Plus, right now, they won't operate lifts with that wind.  It is absolutely insane right now.  We stayed (this summer) about four apartment complexes down the road from the Mammoth cam and it is just crazy how little you can see in that wind driven snow.  Pretty much whiteout conditions at 9,000'.  I can't imagine what it is between 12,000-14,000' in the Sierra. 

I’ve never been to Mammoth, but have skied in extreme conditions in Montana and New Mexico. The heaviest snow I’ve ever seen was actually in Taos NM. 4 feet of snow in 2 days. The powder was surreal! They will likely get double that or even more at Mammoth this week! You seriously have to be extremely careful even more so after a snow of this magnitude once the snow ends. Like you said Carver, you can’t see anything and you don’t know what obstacles or tree wells, holes, etc you might encounter. Plus the resistance from the powder is difficult to navigate when it’s that deep. It’s fun to experience it but it’s hard to do anything much with it. It’s hard to imagine that there’s too much snow to ski on, but that is kinda what happens. Now give it a few days and it will be epic! However, with the forecast looking like a steady atmospheric river of snow, it might be more than a few days before they can reopen it!

[John1122]

Mammoth is up to 45 inches today on the mountain and 31 in town. 

This is the hourly forecast from 7est/4pst until 4am est/1am pst.  Yes, that is a 4 inch per hour rate predicted at 6pm pst, and multiple hours at 3 inches per hour. They are supposed to get 20+ more tonight, 9-12 tomorrow, 18-20 on Thursday. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Jed, I would love to see four feet of snow in two days.  One day, I am gonna make the trip when the atmospheric river cuts loose out there.  I have already told my family that exact thing!

John, 4" per our is just incredible.  It is humming right now.

 

[Jed33]

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Mammoth is up to 45 inches today on the mountain and 31 in town. 

This is the hourly forecast from 7est/4pst until 4am est/1am pst.  Yes, that is a 4 inch per hour rate predicted at 6pm pst, and multiple hours at 3 inches per hour. They are supposed to get 20+ more tonight, 9-12 tomorrow, 18-20 on Thursday. 

 

 

If that 10PM observation for tonight comes to pass, it would be so epic to be there!

[Jed33]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jed, I would love to see four feet of snow in two days.  One day, I am gonna make the trip when the atmospheric river cuts loose out there.  I have already told my family that exact thing!

John, 4" per our is just incredible.  It is humming right now.

 

It was unreal cars and trucks in people’s yards completely covered over by snow! The crazy thing was they tried to keep the resort open as long as they could by shutting down the top of the mountain and allowing mid and lower elevation skiing, but even that got shut down early and was closed the next day. Had to wait a couple days to be able to get back on the slopes. Fortunately for me it was Spring Break and I had the whole week! I did get a refund for the days they were shut down, so that was good! That was my first experience with thundersnow. It was literally snowing so hard on the lift rides up you would have over an inch of snow on your jackets or the seats by the time you would reach the dismount! They closed it shortly thereafter this and I have to believe it was probably close to 6in per hour rates. The ride on the lift was only around around 10min or so.

[Daniel Boone]

This was from March 2, 1942 Norton, VA. 

[John1122]

51 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

If that 10PM observation for tonight comes to pass, it would be so epic to be there!

They get thundersnow multiple times each winter. It's hens teeth in the East but more common in the high mountain west. It's just a different world, there, particularly in Mammoth. I watched a video about it and the founder of the resort, studied all the available public mountain areas and found basically what he saw as the absolute perfect location for natural snow in the country. The only place that gets more snow is national park areas in the Pac NW in Washington. Mammoth had 950 inches a couple years ago. The world record is 1140 inches in a year. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Mammoth is up to 45 inches today on the mountain and 31 in town. 

This is the hourly forecast from 7est/4pst until 4am est/1am pst.  Yes, that is a 4 inch per hour rate predicted at 6pm pst, and multiple hours at 3 inches per hour. They are supposed to get 20+ more tonight, 9-12 tomorrow, 18-20 on Thursday. 

 

 

Right on time.  Absolutely white out conditions on the Wooly cam.

[John1122]

The guy who lives there around 9k feet, that puts videos out, got 12 inches Monday in the pre-event. He's also the one who called 8 inches a dusting.  He said his forecast was for 10 feet by Thursday. 

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The guy who lives there around 9k feet, that puts videos out, got 12 inches Monday in the pre-event. He's also the one who called 8 inches a dusting.  He said his forecast was for 10 feet by Thursday. 

Is that Fiebiger?

[Carvers Gap]

I want an 8" dusting of snow.  Seriously, we have been watching this cam all day, and just amazed.  I cannot imagine the Donner Party in that.  Sadly, I think they have a bunch of skiers

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

This was from March 2, 1942 Norton, VA. 

We just need a "wow" response.

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is that Fiebiger?

Life in the Eastern Sierra. 

[John1122]

Probably the wildest thing you'll ever see. This is an SPS that's also covering the Winter Storm Warning area near Mammoth.

"If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service."

The forecast attached to that, this is at 9000-10000 feet.

"Tonight: Snow showers before 1am, then snow, mainly after 1am. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -16. Windy, with a west southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible."

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, John1122 said:

Probably the wildest thing you'll ever see. This is an SPS that's also covering the Winter Storm Warning area near Mammoth.

"If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service."

The forecast attached to that, this is at 9000-10000 feet.

"Tonight: Snow showers before 1am, then snow, mainly after 1am. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 5. Wind chill values as low as -16. Windy, with a west southwest wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 37 to 43 inches possible."

Wow.  Weather is such an amazing thing to follow.