February 2026

[GBOVolz]

I was just told… because of the snow, our groundhog is running on a two hour delay tomorrow morning.


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[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, noticed that in later modeling. I have saw that advertised and still wind up with accumulaing Snow before changeover as the nose was slower getting 850 Temps above 0C in the NE Valley than Model's Forecasted.  

Thats a inverted trough,its always the worse Nightmare into our

forum

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Thats a inverted trough,its always the worse Nightmare into out forum

Yeah, I know about those. I've saw some pretty good thumpings ahead of those when deep cold is ahead of them . Model's many times have underestimated the mixing from low level CA upsloping up the Great Valley. Not talking of the whole Forum area here.

[BNAwx]

As Carvers has mentioned, LC has had about as good a grasp on this winter’s pattern than anyone and I don’t really see a flaw with his thinking the rest of the way.  I think we transition back to winter around Valentines Day or shortly after.  It seems like V-Day has brought storms or rumors of storms the past few years.

All in all, I do think we’ll have at least one more winter storm to track before we break for spring.  I’ve always given it until March 15th.  After that, I’m ready for spring and warmth.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I know about those. I've saw some pretty good thumpings ahead of those when deep cold is ahead of them . Model's many times have underestimated the mixing from low level CA upsloping up the Great Valley. Not talking of the whole Forum area here.

Maybe your right,but even the NAM is showing a inverted trough with LP into the lower OV with the STJ around 30-40 kts,good luck with this for snow in Tn,sorry no model shows this will happen

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe your right,but even the NAM is showing a inverted trough with LP into the lower OV with the STJ around 30-40 kts,good luck with this for snow in Tn,sorry no model shows this will happen

Oh, I agree the Track is too far North for Tn. I was suggesting the possibility up in my area, blunderstorms and maybe TRI,  onset and maybe a little back lash. 

[jaxjagman]

28 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Oh, I agree the Track is too far North for Tn. I was suggesting the possibility up in my area, blunderstorms and maybe TRI,  onset and maybe a little back lash. 

Not trying to discount you,but when you have decent warm nose advecion with a STJ 30-50 kts into Tn,it really seems  impossible to get snow into Tn,it really dont matter what side of the mountain you look at,this is a weak LP it forms where ever it forms,even the WAA looks worse into East Tn

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Not trying to discount you,but when you have decent warm nose advecion with a STJ 30-50 kts into Tn,it really seems  impossible to get snow into Tn,it really dont matter what side of the mountain you look at,this is a weak LP it forms where ever it forms,even the WAA looks worse into East Tn

Yes, I know that . I'm saying the possibility at onset or ending as Snow in basically the SWVA Part of the Great Valley as the Euro and RGEM indicated earlier. Black Mountain and High Knob Massif Area.

[Daniel Boone]

Rgem still showing possibility for SWVA.

[Daniel Boone]

Here's end of 0Z Run 12Z Thursday.

[BlunderStorm]

Soundings in Russell county for tuesday night.

[BlunderStorm]

-A little fun for east TN peeps with 6z on the GFS and Canadian later into Wednesday for some bonus flakes after the washout.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3D SPV maps started updating again. Below just for imagery purposes, but it still looks like there will at minimum be a major disruption to the SPV around or just before Valentines day:

[Jed33]

The rgem continues to bring a Lee Side Low through on Wednesday night into Thursday. A sneaky little system, typical of this time of year.

[Daniel Boone]

Few flakes falling here now.

[Carvers Gap]

We have snow flurries as well.

[Carvers Gap]

54 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

3D SPV maps started updating again. Below just for imagery purposes, but it still looks like there will at minimum be a major disruption to the SPV around or just before Valentines day:

Great find.

[GBOVolz]

Mike Witcher has his own little private weatherboard that I’m a part of and some people in West Knoxville reported they had a little dusting this morning when I got up. It’s flurrying at my house now.


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[Carvers Gap]

The 12z RGEM puts half a foot in some areas one SW VA Weds-Thursday.  @Daniel Boonehas been all over this.

[GBOVolz]

3D SPV maps started updating again. Below just for imagery purposes, but it still looks like there will at minimum be a major disruption to the SPV around or just before Valentines day:

Do you use Sharppy the dot com site for your soundings or do you get them from a sit like Pivitol?


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[GBOVolz]

I got bored yesterday afternoon and so went across the street and cleared the driveway and sidewalks off for a lady that’s 85 years old and I did the same to my driveway. I am filling it this morning.


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[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, GBOVolz said:

I got bored yesterday afternoon and so went across the street and cleared the driveway and sidewalks off for a lady that’s 85 years old and I did the same to my driveway. I am filling it this morning.


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Cleared mine and am feeling it too. Glad it wasn't the heavy stuff.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, GBOVolz said:

Do you use Sharppy the dot com site for your soundings or do you get them from a sit like Pivitol?


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I usually just try for whatever site I'm on, COD (College of Du Page), Pivotal, or Tropical tidbits. If I can't get it on there, it's usually not worth it for me.

[John1122]

Things look to be trending NW for Wednesday/Thursday time frame with a low popping east of the Apps.

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Friday afternoon into Saturday....the 12z Euro continues to advertise a NW flow event.  The RGEM at 18z definitely looks snowier...see John's post immediately above this.  Is that the 18z RGEM?

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Friday afternoon into Saturday....the 12z Euro continues to advertise a NW flow event.  The RGEM at 18z definitely looks snowier...see John's post immediately above this.  Is that the 18z RGEM?

That's the 18z NAM. 

[Bigbald]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That's the 18z NAM. 

RGEM is killing it this year.