February 2026

[GBOVolz]

I was just told… because of the snow, our groundhog is running on a two hour delay tomorrow morning.


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[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, noticed that in later modeling. I have saw that advertised and still wind up with accumulaing Snow before changeover as the nose was slower getting 850 Temps above 0C in the NE Valley than Model's Forecasted.  

Thats a inverted trough,its always the worse Nightmare into our

forum

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Thats a inverted trough,its always the worse Nightmare into out forum

Yeah, I know about those. I've saw some pretty good thumpings ahead of those when deep cold is ahead of them . Model's many times have underestimated the mixing from low level CA upsloping up the Great Valley. Not talking of the whole Forum area here.

[BNAwx]

As Carvers has mentioned, LC has had about as good a grasp on this winter’s pattern than anyone and I don’t really see a flaw with his thinking the rest of the way.  I think we transition back to winter around Valentines Day or shortly after.  It seems like V-Day has brought storms or rumors of storms the past few years.

All in all, I do think we’ll have at least one more winter storm to track before we break for spring.  I’ve always given it until March 15th.  After that, I’m ready for spring and warmth.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yeah, I know about those. I've saw some pretty good thumpings ahead of those when deep cold is ahead of them . Model's many times have underestimated the mixing from low level CA upsloping up the Great Valley. Not talking of the whole Forum area here.

Maybe your right,but even the NAM is showing a inverted trough with LP into the lower OV with the STJ around 30-40 kts,good luck with this for snow in Tn,sorry no model shows this will happen

[Daniel Boone]

21 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe your right,but even the NAM is showing a inverted trough with LP into the lower OV with the STJ around 30-40 kts,good luck with this for snow in Tn,sorry no model shows this will happen

Oh, I agree the Track is too far North for Tn. I was suggesting the possibility up in my area, blunderstorms and maybe TRI,  onset and maybe a little back lash. 

[jaxjagman]

28 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Oh, I agree the Track is too far North for Tn. I was suggesting the possibility up in my area, blunderstorms and maybe TRI,  onset and maybe a little back lash. 

Not trying to discount you,but when you have decent warm nose advecion with a STJ 30-50 kts into Tn,it really seems  impossible to get snow into Tn,it really dont matter what side of the mountain you look at,this is a weak LP it forms where ever it forms,even the WAA looks worse into East Tn

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Not trying to discount you,but when you have decent warm nose advecion with a STJ 30-50 kts into Tn,it really seems  impossible to get snow into Tn,it really dont matter what side of the mountain you look at,this is a weak LP it forms where ever it forms,even the WAA looks worse into East Tn

Yes, I know that . I'm saying the possibility at onset or ending as Snow in basically the SWVA Part of the Great Valley as the Euro and RGEM indicated earlier. Black Mountain and High Knob Massif Area.

[Daniel Boone]

Rgem still showing possibility for SWVA.

[Daniel Boone]

Here's end of 0Z Run 12Z Thursday.

[BlunderStorm]

Soundings in Russell county for tuesday night.