1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[Bigbald]

[fountainguy97]

Just now, Hurricaneguy said:

Anyone got the EastTN weatherbell or pivotal 18z euro snowfall?

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[Bigbald]

Just now, Bigbald said:

Taken from Mtn thread southeast, 18z euro

[TellicoWx]

6 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Not gonna lie..Will be a huge disappointment if the Euro goes to nothing in 12 hrs lol

[bearman]

2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

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I will take 7.2 inches over my, less than one inch possible point forecast. To bad, we really can't lock it in.  It is strange to me that the NWS would have me under a WS warning and be calling for less than one inch of dry snow that will blow away with the wind.  I know that they don't even believe their own forecast or the warnings would not be out. Whats is the point.  Maybe I am being too hard, but I think it is partly why they are ridiculed so much.  Ok I promise I will not complain anymore.

[Hurricaneguy]

5 minutes ago, bearman said:

I will take 7.2 inches over my, less than one inch possible point forecast. To bad, we really can't lock it in.  It is strange to me that the NWS would have me under a WS warning and be calling for less than one inch of dry snow that will blow away with the wind.  I know that they don't even believe their own forecast or the warnings would not be out. Whats is the point.  Maybe I am being too hard, but I think it is partly why they are ridiculed so much.  Ok I promise I will not complain anymore.

We've all been there before so I feel ya! I was fightin mad in the Jan 24 storm to get slush and sleet. Totally failure when all systems were a go. MRX may bump totals back up overnight. They may be waiting for more hi res trends first. I wouldn't be surprised if they are a little conservative than usual after they jumped on the hype train a little early on last week's storm. Which I thought was unusual for them. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I will take 7.2 inches over my, less than one inch possible point forecast. To bad, we really can't lock it in.  It is strange to me that the NWS would have me under a WS warning and be calling for less than one inch of dry snow that will blow away with the wind.  I know that they don't even believe their own forecast or the warnings would not be out. Whats is the point.  Maybe I am being too hard, but I think it is partly why they are ridiculed so much.  Ok I promise I will not complain anymore.

The point forecast has zero human element to it.


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[Reb]

1 minute ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

The point forecast has zero human element to it.


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I always use zone area forecast personally. It’s probably computer generated too tho

[GBOVolz]

Taken from Mtn thread southeast, 18z euro

There’s a mountain sub thread?


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[bearman]

6 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

The point forecast has zero human element to it.


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And I am told we will be able to trust AI.  I guess my point is why even do it if it just muddies the water.

[Greyhound]

There’s a mountain sub thread?


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2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?share_fid=13197&share_tid=62156&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eamericanwx%2Ecom%2Fbb%2Findex%2Ephp%3F%2Ftopic%2F62156-2025-2026-Fall-Winter-Mountain-Thread&share_type=t&link_source=app


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[Save the itchy algae!]

There’s a mountain sub thread?


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It’s a good sub forum! Don’t expect any/much Tennessee mountain talk though. Their clime dynamics are almost literally the opposite of ours so there’s rarely much crossover unless there’s a big storm that encompasses the entire southern apps.

[Icy Hot]

55 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

At 20/1, i gotta think we get more than .1 tenth of an inch of liquid.


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In their forecast discussion, MRX said 15/1 and they do love the NBM.

[TellicoWx]

Maybe you guys can remember...when has the Euro been this far off (if what NBM shows is accurate) before? I cant remember.

 

Over this wide of an area.

[TellicoWx]

0z HRRR is still out of range, but looks to be coming around so far

[MattPetrulli]

[TellicoWx]

Extremely rare to get the DGZ almost all the way to the surface, and one of the reasons I believe this may bust high. 

 

0z HRRR...

[John1122]

39 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

0z HRRR is still out of range, but looks to be coming around so far

It's because they used many of the 0z Euro ensembles for that 18z NBM and the 0z Euro was very dry compared to all runs today. 

[TellicoWx]

0z NAM looks like its going to get interesting south of 40

[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's because they used many of the 0z Euro ensembles for that 18z NBM and the 0z Euro was very dry compared to all runs today. 

Yeah, just think offices are becoming to reliant so to speak on the NBM...instead of going with what makes most sense.

[John1122]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

Yeah, just think offices are becoming to reliant so to speak on the NBM...instead of going with what makes most sense.

I don't know why it's so far behind. I'd heard it was one cycle, but they used the Euro from 3 cycles back, and the GEFS from 2 back, plus the SREF/RAP and a few others. I'm not even sure if they used the NAM at all, or the OP Euro or OP GFS. 

[TellicoWx]

NAM still a little wonky with the lift but slowly getting there

[TellicoWx]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't know why it's so far behind. I'd heard it was one cycle, but they used the Euro from 3 cycles back, and the GEFS from 2 back, plus the SREF/RAP and a few others. I'm not even sure if they used the NAM at all, or the OP Euro or OP GFS. 

Doesn't make alot of sense..would think within the normal 36 hr window would want to use the most up to date data

[Reb]

1 minute ago, TellicoWx said:

NAM still a little wonky with the lift but slowly getting there

3km looking juicy compared to 12km

[TellicoWx]

7 minutes ago, Reb said:

3km looking juicy compared to 12km

Definitely getting there

[John1122]

I'll say this. I have rarely seen the Euro bust badly from 24-36 hours out. Granted, it's normally being dr no at this range. But it's normally excellent with QPF at this distance.  

Also keep in mind, the Euro is a high resolution model essentially. It's resolution is better than the 12k nam by quite a bit. 

[John1122]

The 0z NBM was pretty much a repeat of the 18z. Gonna see what models they used. It literally has 1/2 inch for me. 

[Scottie16]

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[John1122]

Well, for some reason when I select the 00z Jan 30th 2026 NBM 6 hr snow fall at hr 36, it says it's using model runs from Dec 17, 2025 on the NBM dashboard. So I'm not sure which runs of what model they are using but I can't find any model that gives me a half an inch besides the UK. 

[Vol4Life]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 0z NBM was pretty much a repeat of the 18z. Gonna see what models they used. It literally has 1/2 inch for me. 

Yea…I miffed by the NBM.  It’s interesting that it looks like it uses old data/model runs.  Please let us know what you find out.