1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

[Bigbald]

[fountainguy97]

Just now, Hurricaneguy said:

Anyone got the EastTN weatherbell or pivotal 18z euro snowfall?

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[Bigbald]

Just now, Bigbald said:

Taken from Mtn thread southeast, 18z euro

[TellicoWx]

6 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Not gonna lie..Will be a huge disappointment if the Euro goes to nothing in 12 hrs lol

[bearman]

2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

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I will take 7.2 inches over my, less than one inch possible point forecast. To bad, we really can't lock it in.  It is strange to me that the NWS would have me under a WS warning and be calling for less than one inch of dry snow that will blow away with the wind.  I know that they don't even believe their own forecast or the warnings would not be out. Whats is the point.  Maybe I am being too hard, but I think it is partly why they are ridiculed so much.  Ok I promise I will not complain anymore.

[Hurricaneguy]

5 minutes ago, bearman said:

I will take 7.2 inches over my, less than one inch possible point forecast. To bad, we really can't lock it in.  It is strange to me that the NWS would have me under a WS warning and be calling for less than one inch of dry snow that will blow away with the wind.  I know that they don't even believe their own forecast or the warnings would not be out. Whats is the point.  Maybe I am being too hard, but I think it is partly why they are ridiculed so much.  Ok I promise I will not complain anymore.

We've all been there before so I feel ya! I was fightin mad in the Jan 24 storm to get slush and sleet. Totally failure when all systems were a go. MRX may bump totals back up overnight. They may be waiting for more hi res trends first. I wouldn't be surprised if they are a little conservative than usual after they jumped on the hype train a little early on last week's storm. Which I thought was unusual for them. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I will take 7.2 inches over my, less than one inch possible point forecast. To bad, we really can't lock it in.  It is strange to me that the NWS would have me under a WS warning and be calling for less than one inch of dry snow that will blow away with the wind.  I know that they don't even believe their own forecast or the warnings would not be out. Whats is the point.  Maybe I am being too hard, but I think it is partly why they are ridiculed so much.  Ok I promise I will not complain anymore.

The point forecast has zero human element to it.


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[Reb]

1 minute ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

The point forecast has zero human element to it.


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I always use zone area forecast personally. It’s probably computer generated too tho

[GBOVolz]

Taken from Mtn thread southeast, 18z euro

There’s a mountain sub thread?


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[bearman]

6 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

The point forecast has zero human element to it.


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And I am told we will be able to trust AI.  I guess my point is why even do it if it just muddies the water.

[Greyhound]

There’s a mountain sub thread?


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2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink/topic?share_fid=13197&share_tid=62156&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Eamericanwx%2Ecom%2Fbb%2Findex%2Ephp%3F%2Ftopic%2F62156-2025-2026-Fall-Winter-Mountain-Thread&share_type=t&link_source=app


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[Save the itchy algae!]

There’s a mountain sub thread?


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It’s a good sub forum! Don’t expect any/much Tennessee mountain talk though. Their clime dynamics are almost literally the opposite of ours so there’s rarely much crossover unless there’s a big storm that encompasses the entire southern apps.

[Icy Hot]

55 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

At 20/1, i gotta think we get more than .1 tenth of an inch of liquid.


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In their forecast discussion, MRX said 15/1 and they do love the NBM.

[TellicoWx]

Maybe you guys can remember...when has the Euro been this far off (if what NBM shows is accurate) before? I cant remember.

 

Over this wide of an area.

[TellicoWx]

0z HRRR is still out of range, but looks to be coming around so far

[MattPetrulli]

[TellicoWx]

Extremely rare to get the DGZ almost all the way to the surface, and one of the reasons I believe this may bust high. 

 

0z HRRR...