February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[nycsnow]

The GRAF is a pretty big storm, saw it on x 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

The GRAF is a pretty big storm, saw it on x 

can you share?

[weatherpruf]

24 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Tis the season when it can be 50° or higher and then snowing 6 hours later.  From about mid-February on its fairly typical.

believe we had a couple march events back to back in 2019? melted right away, also feb 2018 iirc...

[MJO812]

Snowy gfs run

[eduggs]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Snowy gfs run

Verbatim one of the best 10-day runs of the season. Several snow threats in there. But there are no slam dunks or easy wins in that run. Could be several hits or several misses. Low margins as usual. Before I get excited about the mid- or long-range I'm pulling for a 2-4" event Sunday night.

[RU848789]

Even the UK is waking up at least a little...

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Verbatim one of the best 10-day runs of the season. Several snow threats in there. But there are no slam dunks or easy wins in that run. Could be several hits or several misses. Low margins as usual. Before I get excited about the mid- or long-range I'm pulling for a 2-4" event Sunday night.

The negative PNA should help us out as long as the blocking also helps.

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The negative PNA should help us out as long as the blocking also helps.

you see that arctic blast on the gfs around the 27th? that's some serious cold. GFS doesn't give no warm up besides tomorrow and next week for a couple of days!

[nycsnow]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can you share?

https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022438348405481832?s=46

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022438348405481832?s=46

dude that's a 6-12 inches! amazing thank you

[MJO812]

[WeatherGeek2025]

GEFS with a big north shift !

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

TORCH!!!!

[RU848789]

In case folks didn't see the big snowstorm on the GRAF; courtesy of Jeff Berardelli...

https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022432636526883311

 

[Monty]

20 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

https://x.com/weatherprof/status/2022438348405481832?s=46

The self appointed WxTwitter hall monitor does not approve. 

https://x.com/i/status/2022447652550402496

[RU848789]

AIFS not as robust, but still a nice hit...

[nycsnow]

[Brian5671]

18z Euro north but very light

[MJO812]

18z Graf is 12 plus for NYC north. 

[Franklin0529]

Just now, MJO812 said:

18z Graf is 12 plus for NYC north. 

Come on Ant? Really? The Graf? 

[Brian5671]

Just now, MJO812 said:

18z Graf is 12 plus for NYC north. 

never happening but if it did it would go down as one of the biggest positive 48 hr busts of all time

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

never happening but if it did it would go down as one of the biggest positive 48 hr busts of all time

boxing day would top that

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Come on Ant? Really? The Graf? 

A few TV meteorologists posted on Twitter lol

[RU848789]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Come on Ant? Really? The Graf? 

Tons of professionals use IBM's GRAF model - not sure what your issue with it is.  I wish Pivotal/TT and others had it and Weathernext (Google's AI model) available.  

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Come on Ant? Really? The Graf? 

They are already showing it on TV.

[weatherpruf]

what the heck....a few days ago people were in here talking about how winter is over, or snow is done, its too dry, and i even read a piece in nj.com that we are near drought conditions....well we shall see...

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

They are already showing it on TV.

now i know it won't happen....

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They are already showing it on TV.

[Franklin0529]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A few TV meteorologists posted on Twitter lol

Trying to get clicks. At most it's a sloppy 2-3" 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

what the heck....a few days ago people were in here talking about how winter is over, or snow is done, its too dry, and i even read a piece in nj.com that we are near drought conditions....well we shall see...

we are in drought conditions-that's a face-some places moderate drought.