The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[SnowHabit]

Winter Storm Watch issued just before 3am…

[BornAgain13]

@eyewall or another Met, how do I get the graphic showing total event snowfall all the way through and not just through 7 pm Saturday? I can't find it from NWS in Blacksburg 

[BornAgain13]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@eyewall or another Met, how do I get the graphic showing total event snowfall all the way through and not just through 7 pm Saturday? I can't find it from NWS in Blacksburg 

Nevermind I see it now. Thank you

[JoshM]

6z NAM had a damn seizure, I hope. 3k NAM looks OK

[BornAgain13]

6z Nam solid hit for most of NC and up this way. 

[JoshM]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

6z Nam solid hit for most of NC and up this way. 

High res looks good, but regular 12 km has dry slots and spots of QPF. Just looks weird.

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

High res looks good, but regular 12 km has dry slots and spots of QPF. Just looks weird.

Very true. Hopefully just convective feedback issues 

[SnowDawg]

NAM and GFS Continue to worry me greatly for NE GA and the upstate. I want to lean on king Euro but NAM and GFS match up with what the GSP discussion had to say about the western half of the forecast area.

[JoshM]

MBY gets ~ 7 inches of snow on the Kuchera through hour 60 on high res NAM and it’s still snowing

[suzook]

1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

NAM and GFS Continue to worry me greatly for NE GA and the upstate. I want to lean on king Euro but NAM and GFS match up with what the GSP discussion had to say about the western half of the forecast area.

Going to be a sharp cut off on the western side. Definitely going to be close for you.

[lilj4425]

Surprised this many people are awake right now.  

[JoshM]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

Surprised this many people are awake right now.  

Hey, we can sleep during the spring. 

[WiseWeather]

Hey, we can sleep during the spring. 

Spring cancelled. Forever winter.


.

[BornAgain13]

This storm is such a big deal to most of the forum. I hope we all get in on a good amount even @Brick Tamland!! Lol Where are you Brick?

[LakeNormanStormin]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

This storm is such a big deal to most of the forum. I hope we all get in on a good amount even @Brick Tamland!! Lol Where are you Brick?

Reverse psychology

It's working

[JoshM]

11 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Spring cancelled. Forever winter.


.

Well, the euro has a storm for Thursday and Friday next week

[BornAgain13]

6z ICON not quite as good as 0z but not a huge difference. 

[timnc910]

Here are the 06z icon totals

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Gotta say, that coastal plain dry slot is concerning. One of these analog storms, cannot remember which, did that bad over central NC. Starting to see it on most modeling. Could really screw someone in this setup as the coastal takes over

[CentralNC]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gotta say, that coastal plain dry slot is concerning. One of these analog storms, cannot remember which, did that bad over central NC. Starting to see it on most modeling. Could really screw someone in this setup as the coastal takes over

I highly doubt the coastal plain would be the screw zone this time.  Think western piedmont and foothills is where we need to be MOST wary of that.  Coastals always have a screw zone somewhere on the NW flank.  Always.

[Silver Meteor]

3 hours ago, ADB83 said:

0z Euro


.

This is not the first time I've seen that modeled gap between Raleigh and the Coast. Greenville less snow than anyone? What the hell is going on!

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

I highly doubt the coastal plain would be the screw zone this time.  Think western piedmont and foothills is where we need to be MOST wary of that.  Coastals always have a screw zone somewhere on the NW flank.  Always.

Yep that is my concern. It is why I posted. It’s damned close to triangle areas and would be an absolute kick in the nads to get 1” with 8”+ on either side 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

This is not the first time I've seen that modeled gap between Raleigh and the Coast. Greenville less snow than anyone? What the hell is going on!

It’s been showing up to varying degrees on different runs across most modeling. If you’re between Greensboro and Greenville that is this storms *potential* fail mode 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

High res looks good, but regular 12 km has dry slots and spots of QPF. Just looks weird.

3k has a vicious dry slot Raleigh to coastal plain 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS drier

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS big hit for coastal areas. Drier pretty much everywhere inland. Also has the dry slot over Raleigh 

[lilj4425]

25 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

This is not the first time I've seen that modeled gap between Raleigh and the Coast. Greenville less snow than anyone? What the hell is going on!

It’s due to the transfer occurring. 

[timnc910]

Not as good as the runs it has been putting out. The 6z wasn't terrible

 

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS big hit for coastal areas. Drier pretty much everywhere inland 

I knew it. Party is over.  Probably will be lucky to see flurries now.

[JoshM]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

I knew it. Party is over.  Probably will be lucky to see flurries now.

lol, your QPF actually went up. So did MBY