February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But that comp would also show a massive -pna trough along the west coast. THAT is what causes the ridge in the east.  It hasn’t happened YET there. It’s coming. A day later and then 2 days after that yes the east will ridge. Not every situation is the same. You’re ignoring that the central pacific ridge has not yet had the downstream impact on the pna that comes BEFORE what happens here. You’re just applying a general mean. Well if that was the case we might as well always say it won’t snow because snow is an anomaly not normal and not the likely outcome ever.  

We have -PNA 3-4 days before that, it's not +450dm, but there is a ridge with trough over top. You see this starting to effect us in the next few days, as we warm up to 40s in +EPO. After that, I'm going to say there isn't any cold air reinforcement, it's not actually 1-2-3 with WC trough either, sometimes you will have a SE ridge without the 2nd part, but either way there is WC trough to some extent after 1st part of PNA establishes. It's just not a good pacific pattern man. It's not because of "our luck and global warming", it's a really easily identifiable pattern anomaly in the pacific. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It's pretty different. the position of the west coast trough and Aleutian ridge is much worse. More Pac puke. Although I am about to puke myself watching this game. So yeah. 

But what’s happening out in the central pacific hasn’t impacted the North America longwave pattern YET. It will. We are going to pay the price for that ridge out there eventually. The nao might mute it some but payment will come due. But what’s happening over N Amerca matters more.
 

That ridge out there matters because it will cause the next pac trough to really dig and amplify into the west. THAT is what will jump a ridge in the east. There are steps. Because the antecedent pattern was good and there is some residual blocked nature to the N Amer flow the downstream impacts are delayed some, not as immediate as in recent years when things were already bad and that kind of ridge would torch is right quick.  But there the location and depth of the trough our west is similar to the Hudson Bay high comp. Yes the central pacific ridge is different but they only matters once it causes the pna to tank imo. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But what’s happening out in the central pacific hasn’t impacted the North America longwave pattern YET. It will. We are going to pay the price for that ridge out there eventually. The nao might mute it some but payment will come due. But what’s happening over N Amerca matters more.
 

That ridge out there matters because it will cause the next pac trough to really dig and amplify into the west. THAT is what will jump a ridge in the east. There are steps. Because the antecedent pattern was good and there is some residual blocked nature to the N Amer flow the downstream impacts are delayed some, not as immediate as in recent years when things were already bad and that kind of ridge would torch is right quick.  But there the location and depth of the trough our west is similar to the Hudson Bay high comp. Yes the central pacific ridge is different but they only matters once it causes the pna to tank imo. 

If you plot N. Pacific ridges most extreme, in that spot, there is a Day-0 effect. I've done it before, gone through the whole dataset and made custom indexes. There is a Day-0 correlation. It's strongest 2-3 days later, but there are rising heights in the SE right as the N. Pacific ridge starts setting up. Plot it sometime. 

Either way though, the PNA is going negative in the next few days. 

[Weather Will]

0Z ICON has a low moving  through the Ohio Valley bringing a wintry mix quickly changing over to rain this weekend.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0Z ICON has a low moving  through the Ohio Valley bringing a wintry mix quickly changing over to rain this weekend.

And 12z will have it in NC. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We have -PNA 3-4 days before that, it's not +450dm, but there is a ridge with trough over top. You see this starting to effect us in the next few days, as we warm up to 40s in +EPO. After that, I'm going to say there isn't any cold air reinforcement, it's not actually 1-2-3 with WC trough either, sometimes you will have a SE ridge without the 2nd part, but either way there is WC trough to some extent after 1st part of PNA establishes. It's just not a good pacific pattern man. It's not because of "our luck and global warming", it's a really easily identifiable pattern anomaly in the pacific. 

But you’re acting like we can’t snow with a shitty pacific. Early in the season the season that’s true.  Back when I looked at every 5”+ Baltimore snow I did note there are almost no December or early Jan snows without PNA EPO help. None. But Feb and March have a ton of snows with a hostile EPO PNA. And in most of those it was a setup very similar to this.  A split flow and The Atlantic helped suppress a pac wave that ejected from the southwest and it had to work with marginal pace puke air. None of them were cold storms. Some were storms where it was 50 the day before and after the storm and it snowed with temps of 33 degrees during the storm.   But we had a ton of those storms. 
 

Now I have also noted there been extinct for a while now. And the last several examples of an attempt at these ended up perfect track rainstorms. One was that storm around the Super Bowl in 2023. These haven’t been working anymore. Lately the pacific puke air masses have been too warm to overcome even when a storm is suppressed under us. It’s just a 38 degree rainstorm.  Maybe that’s the new reality. Maybe I’m stubborn and don’t want to admit this doesn’t work anymore because some of these storms were my favorites. Wet snow paste bombs in otherwise garbage patterns. 

Take a look at the Feb 1987 storm.  The pac was utter garbage but the Atlantic forces that wave under us and we had a snowstorm with temps of like 32-34 degrees the whole storm!   
 

Also historically you can’t use the same heights  the overall heights are much much higher now.  A +250 ridge in 1960 would be a +400 now!  

 

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

If you plot N. Pacific ridges most extreme, in that spot, there is a Day-0 effect. I've done it before, gone through the whole dataset and made custom indexes. There is a Day-0 correlation. It's strongest 2-3 days later, but there are rising heights in the SE right as the N. Pacific ridge starts setting up. Plot it sometime. 

Either way though, the PNA is going negative in the next few days. 

Have you plotted them when there isn’t a strong PNA?  A mean will miss anomalies or exceptions to a rule. 

[psuhoffman]

NAO is trending negative again toward the end of Feb. Pac ridge is becoming a WPO poleward ridge linking to the AO. Yea the pna sucks but in late Feb and March we should be able to overcome that. At least we have in the past. PNA is the most important index the first 1/3 of winter, equal with AO the middle 3rd, and dropped in importance once past Feb 15 in my snowstorm analysis. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But you’re acting like we can’t snow with a shitty pacific. Early in the season the season that’s true.  Back when I looked at every 5”+ Baltimore snow I did note there are almost no December or early Jan snows without PNA EPO help. None. But Feb and March have a ton of snows with a hostile EPO PNA. And in most of those it was a setup very similar to this.  A split flow and The Atlantic helped suppress a pac wave that ejected from the southwest and it had to work with marginal pace puke air. None of them were cold storms. Some were storms where it was 50 the day before and after the storm and it snowed with temps of 33 degrees during the storm.   But we had a ton of those storms. 
 

Now I have also noted there been extinct for a while now. And the last several examples of an attempt at these ended up perfect track rainstorms. One was that storm around the Super Bowl in 2023. These haven’t been working anymore. Lately the pacific puke air masses have been too warm to overcome even when a storm is suppressed under us. It’s just a 38 degree rainstorm.  Maybe that’s the new reality. Maybe I’m stubborn and don’t want to admit this doesn’t work anymore because some of these storms were my favorites. Wet snow paste bombs in otherwise garbage patterns. 

Take a look at the Feb 1987 storm.  The pac was utter garbage but the Atlantic forces that wave under us and we had a snowstorm with temps of like 32-34 degrees the whole storm!   
 

Also historically you can’t use the same heights  the overall heights are much much higher now.  A +250 ridge in 1960 would be a +400 now!  

 

I don't know why, but the PNA is more uniform now than it was in the 1960s and 1970s. 3-wave patterns that almost always carry through. I get this from tracking just about every Winter since 2017. I've said it before, storms that models have snow around Day 7-8 with a strong -PNA or +EPO end up rain >90% of the time. Maybe the jet stream is north, maybe it's something with the AMO, but I don't see this storm threat as a close call at all. And I know as we get closer it will trend toward more of a snow miss and rain or nothing. Now if we end up 30 degrees and sunny on that day, I will say you were right - the SE ridge was not underestimated, but that's a strong anomaly in the Pacific! It's not just PNA, it's like 3 standard deviations. In March we get more neutral heights with -PNA but in Feb the SE ridge correlation is still pretty strong:

[default of map below is positive, so negative pna is opposite]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Have you plotted them when there isn’t a strong PNA?  A mean will miss anomalies or exceptions to a rule. 

Well yeah, there are 6 main patterns:

1. WPO

2. EPO

3. Gulf of Alaska

4. PNA 

5. NW-based NAO (Could call it AO)

6. south-based NAO

Most impactful to our temps is EPO. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

NAO is trending negative again toward the end of Feb. Pac ridge is becoming a WPO poleward ridge linking to the AO. Yea the pna sucks but in late Feb and March we should be able to overcome that. At least we have in the past. PNA is the most important index the first 1/3 of winter, equal with AO the middle 3rd, and dropped in importance once past Feb 15 in my snowstorm analysis. 

PNA has highest correlation with our temps in January (0.40 correlation) and February (0.35 correlation). It has a 0.15 correlation in December and March. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

PNA has highest correlation with our temps in January (0.40 correlation) and February (0.35 correlation). It has a 0.15 correlation in December and March. 

Most of our snowstorms with a hostile PNA were warm storms that were barely cold enough to snow with warm temps on either side of the storm. Lots of examples where it was 48 the day before and 47 the day after and like 55-60 within a few days either side. At least the Jan Feb ones. March we have more examples of colder regimes with a hostile PNA due to shorter wavelengths. But we have snowed in “warm” regimes before if we get a perfect storm track. Feb 1987 being the best example! 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Most of our snowstorms with a hostile PNA were warm storms that were barely cold enough to snow with warm temps on either side of the storm. Lots of examples where it was 48 the day before and 47 the day after and like 55-60 within a few days either side. At least the Jan Feb ones. March we have more examples of colder regimes with a hostile PNA due to shorter wavelengths. But we have snowed in “warm” regimes before if we get a perfect storm track. Feb 1987 being the best example! 

I've never seen a +450dm N. Pacific High and negative heights in Alaska and snow!

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't know why, but the PNA is more uniform now than it was in the 1960s and 1970s. 3-wave patterns that almost always carry through. I get this from tracking just about every Winter since 2017. I've said it before, storms that models have snow around Day 7-8 with a strong -PNA or +EPO end up rain >90% of the time. Maybe the jet stream is north, maybe it's something with the AMO, but I don't see this storm threat as a close call at all. And I know as we get closer it will trend toward more of a snow miss and rain or nothing. Now if we end up 30 degrees and sunny on that day, I will say you were right - the SE ridge was not underestimated, but that's a strong anomaly in the Pacific! It's not just PNA, it's like 3 standard deviations. In March we get more neutral heights with -PNA but in Feb the SE ridge correlation is still pretty strong:

[default of map below is positive, so negative pna is opposite]

Omg we are talking past each other. Yes since 2017 -pna hasn’t worked. I’ve said that. But that’s one of the reasons since 2017 has been the worst 9 year snow drought in our history. You’re using the absolute worst 9 years EVER as your baseline!  If that’s what you’re saying is normal we’re Fooked and I might as well find a new hobby. I’m saying I am assuming things go back to normal (or at least better than the last 9 years have been) at some point. Baltimore is only averaging 12” if snow since 2016!  
 

There are 2 reasons for that.  1) we’ve been in a hostile PDO pac regime. Past periods like this were low snow periods. But this one has been worse. Much worse!  Why?  Because we aren’t even getting the fluke occasions snows we used to get in a crap pacific pattern. You think that continues?   You think 12” is what is normal in Baltimore now?  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've never seen a +450dm N. Pacific High and negative heights in Alaska and snow!

There are some examples of +200-250 N pad ridges and snow…but a +250 ridge in 1960 is probably a +400 now!  Heights are higher!  So you won’t see that because a +400 ridge was unheard of in the past and would have been so anomalous for that period it would have dominated the pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Omg we are talking past each other. Yes since 2017 -pna hasn’t worked. I’ve said that. But that’s one of the reasons since 2017 has been the worst 9 year snow drought in our history. You’re using the absolute worst 9 years EVER as your baseline!  If that’s what you’re saying is normal we’re Fooked and I might as well find a new hobby. I’m saying I am assuming things go back to normal (or at least better than the last 9 years have been) at some point. Baltimore is only averaging 12” if snow since 2016!  
 

There are 2 reasons for that.  1) we’ve been in a hostile PDO pac regime. Past periods like this were low snow periods. But this one has been worse. Much worse!  Why?  Because we aren’t even getting the fluke occasions snows we used to get in a crap pacific pattern. You think that continues?   You think 12” is what is normal in Baltimore now?  

Positive PNA is working, look at how cold January was. And Jan 2025 in +PNA there was 10" of snow in Florida.. our deep freeze we just had and are still experiencing is heavily +pna driven! Now in the next few days the Pacific does a fast pattern flip. 

[psuhoffman]

We pop a +400 ridge in the pad multiple times every damn winter now. You can’t hardly find any examples of that even in the absolute worst PDO winters in the past prior to 2000 so of course there are no examples. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Positive PNA is working, look at how cold January was. And last Jan in +PNA there was 10" of snow in Florida.. our deep freeze we just had and are still experiencing are heavily +pna driven! Now in the next few days the Pacific does a fast pattern flip. 

I think what PSU is trying to say is that the fast pattern flip in the pac takes a few days to affect the east. I know you said the time lag is 0 days, but I don’t agree. There is a limited window of time where we can still get a snowstorm before the warmup happens. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Positive PNA is working, look at how cold January was. And Jan 2025 in +PNA there was 10" of snow in Florida.. our deep freeze we just had and are still experiencing is heavily +pna driven! Now in the next few days the Pacific does a fast pattern flip. 

We’re still talking past each other Chuck. I’m saying we used to be able to snow without PNA help. We used to get some snowstorms with a hostile pacific. YES you’re right since 2016 that hadn’t been true. Lately when the pac is bad we got to absolute shit and torch so bad there is no hope. But I am saying historically that wasn’t true. Especially if you go back prior to like 2000!  Bet there were some examples even up to 2015. But since…the last decade the pac has been impossible to overcome. When the pac is bad it torches us. I’m asking you if you think that’s just the new normal and getting snow despite a pad pac pattern is a thing of the past. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I think what PSU is trying to say is that the fast pattern flip in the pac takes a few days to affect the east. I know you said the time lag is 0 days, but I don’t agree. There is a limited window of time where we can still get a snowstorm before the warmup happens. 

Lol that’s definitely one of my points. Also trying to get him to answer if he thinks the 2017 on period (which has been our worst stretch ever and by a large margin) is the new normal because he seems to be using this current total fail period as his baseline for what is normal. And if so our disagreement makes sense because all my examples of this pattern working are from before 2017

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think what PSU is trying to say is that the fast pattern flip in the pac takes a few days to affect the east. I know you said the time lag is 0 days, but I don’t agree. There is a limited window of time where we can still get a snowstorm before the warmup happens. 

It's already flipping the script at Hr36

[winter_warlock]

49 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

0Z ICON has a low moving  through the Ohio Valley bringing a wintry mix quickly changing over to rain this weekend.

That will change lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re still talking past each other Chuck. I’m saying we used to be able to snow without PNA help. We used to get some snowstorms with a hostile pacific. YES you’re right since 2016 that hadn’t been true. Lately when the pac is bad we got to absolute shit and torch so bad there is no hope. But I am saying historically that wasn’t true. Especially if you go back prior to like 2000!  Bet there were some examples even up to 2015. But since…the last decade the pac has been impossible to overcome. When the pac is bad it torches us. I’m asking you if you think that’s just the new normal and getting snow despite a pad pac pattern is a thing of the past. 

I think a uniform +PNA works just as good. Maybe in El Nino +PNA won't be as cold, but lately we've had some good opposite examples of -pna. It's just more uniform these days, on both sides, than a long time ago for whatever reason. I don't think it's a global warming issue besides some minor things

[anotherman]

I’m going to have nightmares about -PNA.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's already flipping the script at Hr36

That pna doesn’t amplify and dig in it kicks out east. The next one does and that will pump a ridge in the east. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Man now it’s just like the winters I remember on this forum. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That pna doesn’t amplify and dig in it kicks out east. The next one does and that will pump a ridge in the east. 

Quick question but what is causing that central US ridge bridge to the NAO? We even seem to have a decent Atlantic and if the PNA isn’t killing us yet then what would it be?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That pna doesn’t amplify and dig in it kicks out east. The next one does and that will pump a ridge in the east. 

Actually what's next is <5000dm over Alaska, which is worse. Then a stronger -PNA evolves after that.. it gets progressively warmer and warmer, but the pattern change to tip us over freezing line is happening in the next few days. 

[psuhoffman]

This was a snowstorm @Stormchaserchuck1. I got 10”!  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This was a snowstorm @Stormchaserchuck1. I got 10”!  

Nice.. I hadn't had a snowstorm over 5.5" here until this Winter. Your Hudson bay/Baffin island block is +300-350dm. Pacific pattern is a little bit further west. Our biggest storms actually happen in a gulf of alaska low, so it's really a fragile difference, where exactly that pacific pattern is.