February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[GreyHat]

46 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

For all the duds is it too warm or just no storm at all?

I've stating that some of the AI models have it warm at the surface and 850 mb. I'd rather have the rain or showers for a couple days and get this crap off the roads.

NW can have what's left of snow for the next couple weeks.

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm really seeing how extreme it looks on models. The last few days I was thinking the seasonal pattern of -AO may be enough to overcome it, or help the ridge go poleward hooking up, eventually, but today's models really went south. The classic measurements aren't going to have super low readings, but the 12z EPS has +400dm on the mean, with a trough over top of it in Alaska. What happens in Alaska and NW Canada has a lot to do with what happens with the PNA downstream too. Since 1998, we have been in this pattern of more troughing over AK/NW Canada vs the 1960s. NAO ridging isn't strong enough to cancel out that strong Pacific pattern, once the pattern change happens quickly in 4-5 days. 

Hmm I do hear what you’re saying. But I actually thought the long range guidance improves today in those regards. On the EPS and GEfS I saw signs the pacific was evolving to a workable less awful configuration with a poleward WPO ridge starting to link to ridge bridge to the AO and some troughing showing  up near Hawaii again. That configuration is worlds different from the +400 anomalies just north of Hawaii we saw in recent years. Much less hostile impacts downstream imo. 
 

This doesn’t look that bad to me 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^In the very long range it looks like it's moving toward something workable. I'm more talking about the medium range and all these storm chances coming with above average precip probably through like Feb 20. I think they are rain. After Feb 20, the strong seasonal pattern of -AO may continue, and I did an analog research of WC ridge vs EC trough in Dec-Jan and found that after a short break in Feb, the pattern usually resumes in March, most of the time. Actually somewhat of the same pattern usually continues through the following Apr-Aug, more times than not. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Hmm I do hear what you’re saying. But I actually thought the long range guidance improves today in those regards. On the EPS and GEfS I saw signs the pacific was evolving to a workable less awful configuration with a poleward WPO ridge starting to link to ridge bridge to the AO and some troughing showing  up near Hawaii again. That configuration is worlds different from the +400 anomalies just north of Hawaii we saw in recent years. Much less hostile impacts downstream imo. 
 

This doesn’t look that bad to me 

Read up. I already made that case lol.

[CAPE]

Just for the record the window around the 20th is mine. Yes I am looking past next weekend. It looked great at one point, but now.. maybe. Same could be said for around the 20th. Its just how it goes with guidance in the LR.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just for the record the window around the 20th is mine. Yes I am looking past next weekend. It looked great at one point, but now.. maybe. Same could be said for around the 20th. It’s just how it goes with guidance in the LR.

Euro and EPS is leaving too much energy back in Baja and washing out what’s left. Maybe. But if that’s wrong and a stronger wave comes out…it’s actually trended better with the blocking in front. Imagine if it didn’t leave the Baja energy behind and instead attacks this Atlantic setup with a healthy wave!  

I think the threat still exists. It’s not likely but anytime there is a setup with big potential I’ll pay attention. Sooner or later we have to get lucky. 
 

 

[CAPE]

Root for this member from the 18z GEFS run for next weekend lol

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

Root for this member from the 18z GEFS run for next weekend lol

Fringed

with 2 feet 

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

Root for this member from the 18z GEFS run for next weekend lol

Lucky 13 ehh? 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro and EPS is leaving too much energy back in Baja and washing out what’s left. Maybe. But if that’s wrong and a stronger wave comes out…it’s actually trended better with the blocking in front. Imagine if it didn’t leave the Baja energy behind and instead attacks this Atlantic setup with a healthy wave!  

I think the threat still exists. It’s not likely but anytime there is a setup with big potential I’ll pay attention. Sooner or later we have to get lucky. 
 

 

Several possibilities for sure. We just cant know yet.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^In the very long range it looks like it's moving toward something workable. I'm more talking about the medium range and all these storm chances coming with above average precip probably through like Feb 20. I think they are rain. After Feb 20, the strong seasonal pattern of -AO may continue, and I did an analog research of WC ridge vs EC trough in Dec-Jan and found that after a short break in Feb, the pattern usually resumes in March, most of the time. Actually somewhat of the same pattern usually continues through the following Apr-Aug, more times than not. 

The pacific is really hostile around Feb 13-19 you’re right. But…there is a leftover cold regime and look at the Atlantic. We’re not just talking about some help. Look at that 50/50. If that Baja wave ejects into that…I don’t care what the pacific long wave pattern is that could work. Typically we’d be dead with that pac look but if that 50/50 presentation is close with the cold left over from the previous pattern this isn’t the typical setup. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Several possibilities for sure. We just cant know yet.

Mdecoy knows 

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Root for this member from the 18z GEFS run for next weekend lol

Thanks Will

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pacific is really hostile around Feb 13-19 you’re right. But…there is a leftover cold regime and look at the Atlantic. We’re not just talking about some help. Look at that 50/50. If that Baja wave ejects into that…I don’t care what the pacific long wave pattern is that could work. Typically we’d be dead with that pac look but if that 50/50 presentation is close with the cold left over from the previous pattern this isn’t the typical setup. 

That trough over Alaska is low level warm air. I've just seen the pattern so many times over the years, and the downstream bias this range.. it will verify warmer here if the Pacific H5 verifies. 

[winter_warlock]

6 hours ago, blizzardmeiser said:

The blockbuster is back on.  

Blockbuster?? 

[midatlanticweather]

This looks ominous! Thread?
 

[Steckstacks]

Canadians got a storm


.

[bncho]

Euro AI has some PD action

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Steckstacks said:

Canadians got a storm


.

That’s not going to happen…but if it did, mid Feb, with a cold N Amer profile, a block and 50/50, and a perfect track rainstorm…I have the final chapter of my book 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s not going to happen…but if it did, mid Feb, with a cold N Amer profile, a block and 50/50, and a perfect track rainstorm…I have the final chapter of my book 

After we were just in the 10s and 20s for 2 weeks? The Pacific pattern is unfavorable dude, not just the PNA but the orientation of it with a strong trough over the top and to the NE.. floods with the US with warm air. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z AI EPS ticked upward compared to 18Z.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

After we were just in the 10s and 20s for 2 weeks? The Pacific pattern is unfavorable dude, not just the PNA but the orientation of it with a strong trough over the top and to the NE.. floods with the US with warm air. 

I could show you dozens of examples of snowstorms with a similar look 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I could show you dozens of examples of snowstorms with a similar look 

Maybe but the pattern has been batting a near perfect average for the last 7-8 years

[Stormchaserchuck1]

How much snow are we averaging in Feb-March during this stretch? This is even with ridging extending into Alaska - replace that AK anomaly with a trough and it turns into a nightmare. 

March 2018 is probably the only big snow, and had a much stronger -NAO than what is being projected. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe but the pattern has been batting a near perfect average for the last 7-8 years

Which is my point. It used to be cold enough to overcome imperfections in patterns. I’ll give you an example. When I looked at every 5”+ snow at Baltimore from 1948 on there was a subset of storms in fall Hudson Bay high storms. Because the whole pattern was utter dog shit except for that one feature. Because a high there tended to force a favorable storm track and almost all these storms were warm and barely cold enough to snow. The most recent example was 1997. A horrible pattern. -pna. But we got an 8” wet snow storm when it was like 45-50 the day before and after the storm. 
 

But those have gone extinct. Now they are just perfect track rainstorms.  Lately when the pattern isn’t perfect it’s too warm. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Which is my point. It used to be cold enough to overcome imperfections in patterns. I’ll give you an example. When I looked at every 5”+ snow at Baltimore from 1948 on there was a subset of storms in fall Hudson Bay high storms. Because the whole pattern was utter dog shit except for that one feature. Because a high there tended to force a favorable storm track and almost all these storms were warm and barely cold enough to snow. The most recent example was 1997. A horrible pattern. -pna. But we got an 8” wet snow storm when it was like 45-50 the day before and after the storm. 
 

But those have gone extinct. Now they are just perfect track rainstorms.  Lately when the pattern isn’t perfect it’s too warm. 

This last cold pattern was impressive though? There is a middle ground in there.. we are just changing states in the Pacific pretty extremely, from what I see on models today and the last few days. +400dm Aleutian ridge with sub-5000dm heights in Alaska is one extreme. It's not like we are borderline favorable and it's always going warm.. we are just in pattern flux for the last several years. That +100dm anomaly in the map I posted above for a 2-month timeframe over 8 consecutive years is a ridiculous anomaly! 

I get that the SE ridge ridge didn't used to always be impenetrable in -PNA in the 60s. I think one difference is the WPO has been positive every Winter except 21-22 and this Winter since 2016-17. 

[North Balti Zen]

Some of the current angst/irritation over the models can be explained by one consistent fact that since the snow/sleet bomb - we’ve gone back to very little (no) precip. It was indeed a weak ass frontal passage for instance. We are currently frustrated over chasing ghosts because the various physics and ai overlord efforts to model chaos can’t agree on our next good window for areawide precip - much less if it will be snow or rain. 
 

whatever pattern reshuffle is underway , I hope it brings more moisture chances with it 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I was saying before that we maybe were moving toward something workable around Feb 20.. but tonight's runs don't look like that. If there is a pattern change back to cold, it's probably going to occur in the last few days of Feb, unless models are just way wrong about the Aleutian ridge. I think the MJO is moving into supported phases for the pattern. 

[mitchnick]

My 2 cent opinion is that this Nina's last gasp of strong trades (blue on this map for those unfamiliar) is occurring and will remain until the end of February. That will make it difficult, if not unlikely, to squeeze in anything greater than a 2-4" event (if anything) imho. Come March, Niño conditions will finally overpower the Niña. Whether we can get everything to align (cold and qpf) is too early to say. 

[aldie 22]

I may be off but historically when winter ends around here it's rather abrupt and we sit around waiting for something to magically pop up on models...I usually know it's that time when I wake up and there aren't many new pages in this thread and most of the posts are by chuck