Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Pressure map sane time frame comparing WB 3K NAM to HRRR; not much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The 6z RRFS and ICON were not very good runs for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The GFS finally bent the knee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: The GFS finally bent the knee The 6z suite quite frankly was a disaster for the sub forum. RRFS was its worst run yet. GFS was warmer, drier, and NW. Don’t want to give off panic, but I don’t like these trends after the best euro run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Basically, Euro folds to the GFS then the GFS folds to what the Euro or the warmer models were. Lost 1-2 inches in most places from 0z-6z gfs; 6” line moved NW. Lost 5” IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Your snow map looks a lot better than mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The gfs finally corrected from being extreme laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 UKIE holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6z RRFS map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Wxmodels page doesn’t have kuchie like pivotal for icon, 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 That RRFS is reprehensible. If correct, absolutely beyond belief. Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On the one hand the NAM isn’t as bad as 0z. On the other hand the rest of the globals are walking back their totals (though we were all expecting that from gfs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just find the model output with the most snow and hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Really going to be a nowcast for tomorrow am. We will be watching the snow/sleet line in real time. Side note: 6Z 3K NAM forecast is 3 degrees too warm for me at 6 am this morning, so who knows about whether it is right for Sunday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said: and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now Well it's a week out . After this storms turn north I'll take a whiff a week out. A whiff now could mean coastal by then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Latest Winter Storm updates just issued from NWS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... .A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times. MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-241830- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral- 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 10 and 16 inches, with highest amounts north and west of US-340. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch, mainly south and east of US-340. * WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 With these frigid temps this next week I have no doubt the bay will freeze. Especially where I live in Baltimore county 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 DC latest NWS SUNDAY EVENING... .A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week with sub-zero wind chills likely at times. DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ051-053-054-502-506-526-527- 241830- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/ District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight, becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway 50. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times. A prolonged period of wind chills in the teens and single digits continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, winter_warlock said: With these frigid temps this next week I have no doubt the bay will freeze. Especially where I live in Baltimore county When was the last time that happened? Maybe the frigid 1977 winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 It's 4 degrees here just north of Winchester i don't know about you but that feels like a good thing heading into a storm. If the nam is right then im not really sure what that much sleet will look like but that's an extreme event no doubt. Buckle up people almost game time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Note NWS saying travel will be nearly impossible..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Rgem lost very little since 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Rgem lost very little since 0z. Not as bad as I thought it would be based on the comments. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1? You don't know the answer? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1?Since you are at 4 degrees I I think you will have a 14:1 sleet ratio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Rgem lost very little since 0z.Starting with the words rgem lost is bad marketing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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