Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Weather Will]

Pressure map sane time frame comparing WB 3K NAM to HRRR; not much difference.

[DDweatherman]

The 6z RRFS and ICON were not very good runs for the region. 

[Interstate]

The GFS finally bent the knee

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The GFS finally bent the knee

The 6z suite quite frankly was a disaster for the sub forum. RRFS was its worst run yet. GFS was warmer, drier, and NW. Don’t want to give off panic, but I don’t like these trends after the best euro run yet. 

[DDweatherman]

Basically, Euro folds to the GFS then the GFS folds to what the Euro or the warmer models were. Lost 1-2 inches in most places from 0z-6z gfs; 6” line moved NW. Lost 5” IMBY. 

[DDweatherman]

[Interstate]

Your snow map looks a lot better than mine

[Ji]

The gfs finally corrected from being extreme laughable

[Interstate]

UKIE holds serve

[DDweatherman]

6z RRFS map

[DDweatherman]

Wxmodels page doesn’t have kuchie like pivotal for icon, 10:1

[Jebman]

That RRFS is reprehensible. If correct, absolutely beyond belief.

Throw it out.

[JenkinsJinkies]

On the one hand the NAM isn’t as bad as 0z. On the other hand the rest of the globals are walking back their totals (though we were all expecting that from gfs).

[Jebman]

Just find the model output with the most snow and hug it.

[Weather Will]

Really going to be a nowcast for tomorrow am.  We will be watching the snow/sleet line in real time. Side note: 6Z 3K NAM forecast is 3 degrees too warm for me at 6 am this morning, so who knows about whether it is right for Sunday am.

[MickeyTim6533]

and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now

Well it's a week out . After this storms turn north I'll take a whiff a week out. A whiff now could mean coastal by then 

[Weather Will]

Latest Winter Storm updates just issued from NWS.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over
the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow
beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially
south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition
to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold
temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week
with sub-zero wind chills likely at times.

MDZ003>005-502-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-504-241830-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western
Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Eastern Mineral-
526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 10 and 16 inches, with highest amounts north
  and west of US-340. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch,
  mainly south and east of US-340.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland, northern
  and northwest Virginia, and eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at
  times. A prolonged period of very cold wind chills continues this
  evening and lasting through the middle of next week.

 

[winter_warlock]

With these frigid temps this next week I have no doubt the bay will freeze. Especially where I live in Baltimore county 

[Weather Will]

DC latest NWS

SUNDAY EVENING...

.A large area of precipitation will overrun Arctic air in place over
the Mid-Atlantic. This will lead to widespread significant snow
beginning this evening, with the potential for ice Sunday especially
south of Highway 50 and near and east of Interstate 95. In addition
to the high threat for significant snow and ice, very cold
temperatures are expected tonight through the middle of next week
with sub-zero wind chills likely at times.

DCZ001-MDZ006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ051-053-054-502-506-526-527-
241830-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0001.260125T0400Z-260126T0900Z/
District of Columbia-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and
Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast
Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Culpeper-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier-Eastern
Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
526 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 7 and 14 inches, with highest in the far
  northern and western suburbs of Washington and Baltimore. Ice
  accumulations between one and two tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, central, northeast, and northern Maryland,
  and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will likely overspread the area tonight,
  becoming heavy at times with rates of one to two inches per hour
  possible at times. A mix with sleet or freezing rain is expected
  Sunday. Significant icing is possible especially south of Highway
  50.  Visibility of one-quarter mile or less is possible at times.
  A prolonged period of wind chills in the teens and single digits
  continues this evening and lasting through the middle of next
  week, with sub-zero wind chills possible at times.

 

[Jebman]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

With these frigid temps this next week I have no doubt the bay will freeze. Especially where I live in Baltimore county 

When was the last time that happened? Maybe the frigid 1977 winter?

[aldie 22]

It's 4 degrees here just north of Winchester i don't know about you but that feels like a good thing heading into a storm. If the nam is right then im not really sure what that much sleet will look like but that's an extreme event no doubt. Buckle up people almost game time 

[Weather Will]

Note NWS saying travel will be nearly impossible.....

[mitchnick]

Rgem lost very little since 0z.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Rgem lost very little since 0z.

Not as bad as I thought it would be based on the comments.

[aldie 22]

Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1?

You don't know the answer? Wow   

[Ji]

Question...can sleet have varying ratios like snow or is it always a straight 3:1?

Since you are at 4 degrees I I think you will have a 14:1 sleet ratio

[Ji]

Rgem lost very little since 0z.

Starting with the words rgem lost is bad marketing

[Ji]