Brian5671 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: NAm sucks, there's not going to be sleet in mountain creek NJ, lets be real here, nam is wrong! While it's a warm outlier I remember many a storm where the sleet line gets further north than expected 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Is the primary simply stronger with the NAM? Its warmer aloft. The -3 isotherm at 10am Sun has shifted from the AC expressway to route 78 over the last 5 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, BoulderWX said: Luckily it’s sleet and not freezing rain, but yeah not fun. The NAM is introducing significant freezing rain into LI now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: i'd go with HRRR for the storm totals! Looks like a foot of snow is common around the area and yes maybe i'm being aggressive but NAM is being retired for a reason! Post less 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I take it as the worst possible outcome and the hi-res RGEM as the best because of the front end thump that still drops 10-12" despite changing most of us over. That said if sleet really makes it to I-84 those of us down here are screwed for anything major and we might struggle to make it to a warning criteria event. We're not there yet but by tonight if the NAM still totally sucks I'll take it more seriously. I didn't like the GFS cutting back at 6z either. NAM has been too aggressive with the warm layer in the past but it will probably be more right than other models close in. We should also monitor obs in the South/TN Valley for how far the warm layer is advancing vs what models have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM ugly for NYC south. At this point have to start taking it more seriously given it's ability to sniff out mid level warming better than other models. I am not saying ride it 100% but I wouldn't discount it either.It sniffed out the warm nose idea first, but it also has a tendency to be amped an overdo things. Let's hope that's the case. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: What did we ever do to the nam? Why does it hate us so Adapted from Tayor Swift's "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together." We hadn’t synced a single run all month, ’Cause you said you needed space (What?) Then you come around again and say, “NAM, I miss you, swear the PNA’s gonna change, trust me.” Remember how that lasted for a day? You ditch me when the ridge* is gone, Then beg me for that coastal bomb— “Show snow!” you plead. But I’ve evolved, I’m done, I’ve got a mission: sabotage. ’Cause I am never, ever, ever, ever showing snow together. Like, ever. I’m gonna warm-nose every layer, Torch the mid-levels ’til you suffer. I’m never, ever, ever, ever showing snow together. Like, ever. Oh, you blamed me when the PNA stayed negative, Ghosted me for globals, called me “clown guidance,” so repetitive. So now I’m cranking 850s warm, Killing totals storm by storm, And every run you beg and pray— I’ll melt it all away… ’Cause I am never, ever, ever, ever showing snow together. Like, ever. I’ll overdo the mixing, I’ll break your wintry fever. Yeah, we are never, ever, ever, ever getting snow together—Like, ever. *-PNA Ridge 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Nam and euro basically showing same thing just the Nam has sleet line here by 1 versus euro which is 4? not even close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/24 12z NAM Total QPF 12z Total Snow / Sleet (10:1) That outcome might make it a high end advisory event here, maybe we barely scrape it to a warning event with added sleet on top while Boston gets possibly 18". Would go into the long list of SWFEs that suck absolute donkey balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM literally on its own right now. Good or bad not one short range meso models close to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: That outcome might make it a high end advisory event here, maybe we barely scrape it to a warning event with added sleet on top while Boston gets possibly 18". Would go into the long list of SWFEs that suck absolute donkey balls. Dude have some positivity you’re posting nothing but negative thoughts for our area. Maybe we’ll bust in a positive way, not likely but you never know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nycsnow said: NAM literally on its own right now. Good or bad not one short range meso models close to the NAM if the NAM still looks like this at 0Z I'd give it a real chance to beat out everything else, right now it's still wobbly and a bit out of it's ideal range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nycsnow said: NAM literally on its own right now. Good or bad not one short range meso models close to the NAM NAM is considerably further north then the rest of the short range models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Prue11 said: Dude have some positivity you’re posting nothing but negative thoughts for our area. Maybe we’ll bust in a positive way, not likely but you never know I said it's a possible outcome that I'm not taking too seriously yet and the hi-res RGEM is another possible outcome lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Might as well give us a sleetstorm if the Nam is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, jm1220 said: I said it's a possible outcome that I'm not taking too seriously yet and the hi-res RGEM is another possible outcome lol. I want the Fv3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That outcome might make it a high end advisory event here, maybe we barely scrape it to a warning event with added sleet on top while Boston gets possibly 18". Would go into the long list of SWFEs that suck absolute donkey balls. SWFEs usually underperform here at the coast, I never get excited about them. We just better hope that the thump is going to be very heavy because the changeover time seems to get sped up with every set of runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Regardless of what happens.... 1 - The heaviest snow is during the day so we actually get to see and enjoy it for once (always seems to happen overnight!) 2 - Good chance of thundersnow and insane banding Enjoy this one... should be a good show 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: Might as well give us a sleetstorm if the Nam is right. Beats rain at 33 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Prue11 said: Dude have some positivity you’re posting nothing but negative thoughts for our area. Maybe we’ll bust in a positive way, not likely but you never know Hes actually right about SWFEs. They suck for our area . One thing we have going for us is the cold air when the storm arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: Hes actually right about SWFEs. They suck for our area . One thing we have going for us is the cold air when the storm arrives. Yeah they do but if we get 6-10” it’s a win for the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, MJO812 said: Might as well give us a sleetstorm if the Nam is right. If the NAM is right just hope it's sleet and not ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Prue11 said: Yeah they do but if we get 6-10” it’s a win for the coast Agree Fv3 is all snow and a big thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I said it's a possible outcome that I'm not taking too seriously yet and the hi-res RGEM is another possible outcome lol. Yes the RGEM which also has a warm bias being generally snowy is also why I'm holding out hope the NAM is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On a more serious note regarding the NAM, the RGEM's high-resolution model and most of the global models use 4dVAR (four-dimensional variation) initialization. The NAM uses the older 3dVAR (three-dimensional variation) initialization. The general idea of warmer air moving in to change the snow to sleet in coastal areas and the New York City area and its nearby suburbs is the baseline idea due to lots of support. It's uncertain whether the NAM is overdoing things on account of its older initialization scheme or if it sees something the other guidance doesn't. If it begins to adjust late today (18z or later), that could be an indication that the older initialization process was playing a role. If, on the other hand, the other guidance starts shifting, that will indicate that the NAM, despite its limitations, had correctly resolved some of the details ahead of the other guidance. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: If the NAM is right just hope it's sleet and not ZR. I really doubt we see zr in the nyc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Dude have some positivity you’re posting nothing but negative thoughts for our area. Maybe we’ll bust in a positive way, not likely but you never know the poster knows his stuff. and he has seen this before many times, so have i. i have been saying the ceiling around here has been about 6 in my lifetime for these kinds of events, however, nws seems convinced a wall of heavy snow is coming first, making this one different. i have seen a foot of snow pile up really fast a few times, jan 1987 comes to mind, a disaster on a weekday no one was ready for. hand over my heart i expect 5-6 out of this out here, but won't discount experts who think it could be more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Agree Fv3 is all snow and a big thump I think the all snow idea is pretty much done, it's not realistic with this storm but hopefully it comes in very thumpy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: I think the all snow idea is pretty much done, it's not realistic with this storm but hopefully it comes in very thumpy. Yep have to hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Agree Fv3 is all snow and a big thump Can somebody post F27 from Fv3 vs. NAM. It's a wild difference. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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