1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[John1122]

My forecast updated a few minutes ago, now to 2-4 inches of snow/sleet, and .25 ice. Earlier this evening it had changed to 1.5 inches of snow/sleet, with .4 to .6 ice. 

[Scottie16]

Ik most of this isn’t hitting the ground!


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[Scottie16]

But it seems like it’s ahead of schedule.


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[Matthew70]

Memphis is reporting light snow.

[John1122]

06z RAP has snow all the way down to the southern Valley. The 1 inch line is down to near Cleveland and Hixson.

1.5 to 2 inches around  most of East Tennessee around 40, 3-5 in the mid-state.

[Stovepipe]

I'm very curious to see how the surface temps play out in east TN.  MRX has Knox hitting 42 and HRRR currently shows 40 peak, but 3k NAM only 35.  We'll most likely have a nice heavy cleansing rain to wash away the slop, but it'll be interesting to see how much the surface temps climb with this much variation in the modeling still.  Also will be interesting to see what if any backside thump of snow is possible as the 850s crash.

[John1122]

Just now, Stovepipe said:

I'm very curious to see how the surface temps play out in east TN.  MRX has Knox hitting 42 and HRRR currently shows 40 peak, but 3k NAM only 35.  We'll most likely have a nice heavy cleansing rain to wash away the slop, but it'll be interesting to see how much the surface temps climb with this much variation in the modeling still.  Also will be interesting to see what if any backside thump of snow is possible as the 850s crash.

I'm skeptical of how much warming reaches the surface. I've seen mountain tops in the 50s and valley temps near freezing in these set ups. Seeing the cold get completely scoured with ice on the ground isn't terribly common.

[Matthew70]

The snow is way ahead of schedule.  It is now showing on my app the snow will start here at 2.45. 
 

It’s also snowing down in Oxford.

[Stovepipe]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm skeptical of how much warming reaches the surface. I've seen mountain tops in the 50s and valley temps near freezing in these set ups. Seeing the cold get completely scoured with ice on the ground isn't terribly common.

 

That is a powerful blast of warm air at the surface narrowly shooting all the way to Pennsylvania.  I guess we will find out soon if that is in the cards.

[housemtnTN]

14 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

 

That is a powerful blast of warm air at the surface narrowly shooting all the way to Pennsylvania.  I guess we will find out soon if that is in the cards.

I think that's more of a warm finger rather than a warm nose at this point lol.

[housemtnTN]

25 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

The snow is way ahead of schedule.  It is now showing on my app the snow will start here at 2.45. 
 

It’s also snowing down in Oxford.

Wow TWC app radar is showing snow is currently just west of Nashville. And future shows it in knox around 8am. Not sure how accurate their future radar is.

[Stovepipe]

Not sure what is and isn't virga on the radar, but Memphis webcams show a snow covered interstate.  Jackson cams are inconclusive.

[Scottie16]

Some of you are going to wake up to a wonderful surprise.


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[TellicoWx]

Reports of sleet in Cleveland

[Wulfer]

Table full of sleet here in Ga.!

[TellicoWx]

Apparently not Virga, if so way ahead of schedule

[Scottie16]

Snowing in sweetwater!


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[Scottie16]

Strong winds outta the north still. Currently at 24* DP 17


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[Uncle Nasty]

Can verify very light sleet and very very very light snow in Ooltewah. Temp was a steady 32° and dropped to 31° after light mix started.

Edit to add : I just saw the thread for this storm. My apologies for cluttering g this thread.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[BlunderStorm]

Surprisingly radar returns are already glowing above SWVA. All Virga for now but we're way ahead of schedule echoing Tellico. I'll have Temps and DP shortly, batteries need to be replaced this morning.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Wow, I was about to say I bet a lot is virga based on the hole around OHX radar:

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just a quick reminder, I made an obs thread now that we are getting precip. You may also post there if you wish. I am not a moderator and would not tell anyone what to do, but I do now some folks like to read the straight up obs. in the long hot summer months. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@tnwxwatcher I would not be surprised if precip. starts quite a bit earlier than most models were showing last night based on the obs. above. 

I still think noon is a good call for travel getting worse, but if possible, I'd try to finish up those deliveries in Sevier county in as safe and an expeditious way as possible. 

[GBOVolz]

I think that's more of a warm finger rather than a warm nose at this point lol.

The middle finger


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[Weatheriscool]

Snowing here, earlier than expected 

[bearman]

4 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Snowing here, earlier than expected 

Don't forget, we have an Obs Thread.  Not to say that you can not post them here, but for the sake of a clean thread, it would be good to transition those posts to the other location.

[*Flash*]

24 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Wow, I was about to say I bet a lot is virga based on the hole around OHX radar:

 

 

 

I was about to ask. Is the air really that much drier in the basin? I get higher dewpoints to the south and why it would start at higher elevations.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

MRX updated their ice accretion forecast about an hour ago:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

From the AFD:

"Our hazards issued and latest WSSI from WPC depict this thinking pretty well with lesser winter storm impacts nearly east of the I-75 to 40 to I-81 corridor. A portion of this area doesn`t meet minor impacts, even."

 

Here is the WSSI they mention from the WPC:

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

MRX updated their ice accretion forecast about an hour ago:

Noticed that...with the early arrival would think that cuts totals (but how can base anything off modeling with CAMs this far off except RAP lol).

 

Was suppose to get a break in precip, but line looks pretty continous across southern border