1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[John1122]

My forecast updated a few minutes ago, now to 2-4 inches of snow/sleet, and .25 ice. Earlier this evening it had changed to 1.5 inches of snow/sleet, with .4 to .6 ice. 

[Scottie16]

Ik most of this isn’t hitting the ground!


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[Scottie16]

But it seems like it’s ahead of schedule.


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[Matthew70]

Memphis is reporting light snow.

[John1122]

06z RAP has snow all the way down to the southern Valley. The 1 inch line is down to near Cleveland and Hixson.

1.5 to 2 inches around  most of East Tennessee around 40, 3-5 in the mid-state.

[Stovepipe]

I'm very curious to see how the surface temps play out in east TN.  MRX has Knox hitting 42 and HRRR currently shows 40 peak, but 3k NAM only 35.  We'll most likely have a nice heavy cleansing rain to wash away the slop, but it'll be interesting to see how much the surface temps climb with this much variation in the modeling still.  Also will be interesting to see what if any backside thump of snow is possible as the 850s crash.

[John1122]

Just now, Stovepipe said:

I'm very curious to see how the surface temps play out in east TN.  MRX has Knox hitting 42 and HRRR currently shows 40 peak, but 3k NAM only 35.  We'll most likely have a nice heavy cleansing rain to wash away the slop, but it'll be interesting to see how much the surface temps climb with this much variation in the modeling still.  Also will be interesting to see what if any backside thump of snow is possible as the 850s crash.

I'm skeptical of how much warming reaches the surface. I've seen mountain tops in the 50s and valley temps near freezing in these set ups. Seeing the cold get completely scoured with ice on the ground isn't terribly common.

[Matthew70]

The snow is way ahead of schedule.  It is now showing on my app the snow will start here at 2.45. 
 

It’s also snowing down in Oxford.

[Stovepipe]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm skeptical of how much warming reaches the surface. I've seen mountain tops in the 50s and valley temps near freezing in these set ups. Seeing the cold get completely scoured with ice on the ground isn't terribly common.

 

That is a powerful blast of warm air at the surface narrowly shooting all the way to Pennsylvania.  I guess we will find out soon if that is in the cards.

[housemtnTN]

14 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

 

That is a powerful blast of warm air at the surface narrowly shooting all the way to Pennsylvania.  I guess we will find out soon if that is in the cards.

I think that's more of a warm finger rather than a warm nose at this point lol.