1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Stovepipe]

The low slides under TN rather than cutting; still some rain but much better situation that any other model that I've seen today.

[John1122]

Every run of the GFS drops 10 inches on me. 

[Matthew70]

Not sure where he works but seems to be Nashville based.

 

 

[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Every run of the GFS drops 10 inches on me. 

Hopefully the Lucy avatar is paying off! 

[Tucker1027]

GFS Ice trend 

[Stovepipe]

GFS is significantly colder at surface and 850 based on the maps; I've not looked at the numbers yet.  There is certainly a period of some ice Sunday but that solution is very different from the NAM.

[ShawnEastTN]

For East Tennessee Knoxville topped out at 33, and Chattanooga 34 on Sunday for surface temps during the warm nose. If those numbers are just a little too warm and over modeled by a few degrees then talking about long duration ice with no thaw then temps quickly crash. This is what I think people really need to prepare for in the end just in case. How many times have we seen low level cold be under modeled and also more stubborn to warm up over the years.

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[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Hopefully the Lucy avatar is paying off! 

Oh, I never trust the GFS. I know it's going to pull the football. 

[Tucker1027]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

For East Tennessee Knoxville topped out at 33, and Chattanooga 34 on Sunday during the warm nose. If those numbers are just a little too warm and over modeled by a few degrees then talking about long duration ice with no thaw then temps quickly crash. This is what I think people really need to prepare for in the end just in case. How many times have we seen low level cold be under modeled and also more stubborn to warm up over the years.

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I have seen so many snow events that were suppose to transition to rain/mix but temps just don't rise like modeled... Shallow cold is hard to model 

[Stovepipe]

Is it realistic at this point to think the low might not cut?  Is that just a function of how quickly the high moves across?

[TellicoWx]

Middle and west TN folks may want to check out the GEM snowfall...just saying

[Weatheriscool]

7 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Middle and west TN folks may want to check out the GEM snowfall...just saying

?

[TellicoWx]

6 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

?

Could just be the crazy uncle doing crazy things...but was just cold enough to put down a 6 inch swath

[Weatheriscool]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Could just be the crazy uncle doing crazy things...but was just cold enough to put down a 6 inch swath

The original comment made no sense. How is that different or unusual?

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

The original comment made no sense. How is that different or unusual?

Same time frame at 12z...the slightly colder south trend allowed a band of 6" snowfall close to the transition line with the heavier precip near Memphis and esstward. Haven't looked at soundings, possible it is an algorithm error. Was just interesting how the slight colder air changed outcome that much.

[Highway2Heel]

I’d rather be an optimist and wrong than a pessimist and right.

All snow. No ice.

[Matthew70]

15 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

The original comment made no sense. How is that different or unusual?

Less ice is always a good sign. Only issue is it’s the crazy uncle. 

[Scottie16]

1051. Looks what’s coming in behind it.


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[Tucker1027]

Intersting 

[Stovepipe]

0z GFS put down a little over 2 inches of snow at TYS followed by .33 sleet then a half inch of ice and back to snow for another half inch.  Tops out a 33 degree surface before crashing.

[ShawnEastTN]

0z GFS put down a little over 2 inches of snow at TYS followed by .33 sleet then a half inch of ice and back to snow for another half inch.  Tops out a 33 degree surface before crashing.

Like recipe for concrete.

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[Scottie16]

Wonder how that is going to interact act with the system? It’s heading west/southwest


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[Tucker1027]

I'm not sure if this means a dang thing, but at hour 00 euro is warm by 5 degrees here in Chattanooga. 

[John1122]

Not by much, but the Euro AI snow is just a little heavier and a little further south. 

[Tucker1027]

Euro seems south out west, but not sure it matters downstream 

[Tucker1027]

also, to note the 0z euro has both the pacific and gulf data in it 

[BuCoVaWx]

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 3 and 8 inches and ice accumulations between
two tenths and four tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Virginia and southeast and southern
West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
impact the Monday morning commute.

[Scottie16]

Looks to be ahead of schedule by a bit. Temps are cooler for the forum as well it seems.


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[Scottie16]

Wouldn’t be surprised to see some stay in the 30s today


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[John1122]

Probably meaningless, but the Euro says I should be 31 right now, I'm 26. The 18z HRRR that just initialized off last hour is close, showing me at 27 at this hour, but the HRRR two hours ago was 3-4 degrees warm looking out to 2am. I'm basically 4-5 degrees cooler than all other modeling.