1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Tucker1027]

Sounds like Atl NWS isn’t buying the NW trends.

https://x.com/justinwx02/status/2014108839042322785?s=10


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Sorta reads we are gonna wait and not make changes till we get the flight data.


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[Matthew70]

Jeff will be wearing shorts & sandals this weekend if the Euro is right.  Which I’m betting it is.  Modeling really sucks anymore.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

You can say a lot of things about the Euro, but this is not the greatest consistency:

 

Not necessarily trying to dredge others back up with me from the edge of cliff overlooking the dump fire, but objectively that is not a consistent handling of the shortwave interaction.

That last frame is 18z and it is a hell of jump. 

Could it jump back the other way? Sure.

Could it all have the same result in the end? 100% 

 

I do not want to be living on a GFS hut when the flood waters are rising, but it is what it is. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Jeff will be wearing shorts & sandals this weekend if the Euro is right.

And that post was not a response to yours Matthew, I was mostly done typing it out when you posted. 

[Tucker1027]

You can say a lot of things about the Euro, but this is not the greatest consistency:

 
Not necessarily trying to dredge others back up with me from the edge of cliff overlooking the dump fire, but objectively that is not a consistent handling of the shortwave interaction.
That last frame is 18z and it is a hell of jump. 
Could it jump back the other way? Sure.
Could it all have the same result in the end? 100% 
 
I do not want to be living on a GFS hut when the flood waters are rising, but it is what it is. 

I’m guessing if we don’t see it trend back towards us at the 0Z tonight we are officially cooked ??


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[*Flash*]

18 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Well just announced. ( Flash’s idea)

Bam is selling pillows!!!!

I'm a nocturnal drooler so I better order one. 

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

And that post was not a response to yours Matthew, I was mostly done typing it out when you posted. 

All good!  

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

You can say a lot of things about the Euro, but this is not the greatest consistency:

 

Not necessarily trying to dredge others back up with me from the edge of cliff overlooking the dump fire, but objectively that is not a consistent handling of the shortwave interaction.

That last frame is 18z and it is a hell of jump. 

Could it jump back the other way? Sure.

Could it all have the same result in the end? 100% 

 

I do not want to be living on a GFS hut when the flood waters are rising, but it is what it is. 

This is what I meant earlier when I said the Euro is the exact opposite of consistency currently. It's getting to approximately the same place but is doing it differently each time. 

[*Flash*]

NBM snow totals this weekend. I'd like to see this sans my favorite model in the world (GFS).

[Kasper]

I feel like Jake Paul’s jaw, so, so broken

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

I’m guessing if we don’t see it trend back towards us at the 0Z tonight we are officially cooked ??

Heck if I know, lol. 

I pay for these silly subscriptions so might as well use 'em for something and try to learn something new each year. As much a pay sites would like us to think that a subscription to get the highlights of the WeatherAIgoobldygookGPT JMG Buttersworth snow ratio meteogram charts will automatically = snow, it doesn't. 

Stakes are high on this one for me. This will probably be my biggest model rug pull, so might as well follow it  when I can, or at least until the ice turns off my power, lol. 

 

[Reb]

6 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

I’m guessing if we don’t see it trend back towards us at the 0Z tonight we are officially cooked ??


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I feel pretty well done already but if 0z throws us a bone ill be tickled pink

[John1122]

The worst thing about this, the super Euro rug pull on me a few years ago, everything trended very far east over the last 48 hours. I was modeled to get 30 inches on a Euro run and ended up on the west edge of precipitation. I think Tri got 10 inches from it. 

And of course all the crazy suppressed runs on the gulf last year looked impossible, but it actually moved South and East until go time. 

Basically whatever we need to happen, just assume the opposite will here and it'll mix or miss. 

[Scottie16]

I’m drunk. They laid off 20 more people tonight. Crazy how the HRRR in range is showing blistering cold into Kentucky with the PV and yet we’re in the upper 30s? Cmon now


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[Matthew70]

Boyd 

 

18z ECMWF showing freezing rain area (pink) Saturday afternoon/night/Sunday. As you can see, Nashville is included in this area. Significant ice accretion is looking more possible for Nashville Saturday night. Snowfall totals for event in Nashville around 6 inches. Snow begins in Nashville after midnight Friday night and continues during the day Saturday, transitioning to freezing rain and sleet Saturday afternoon/night into Sunday morning before switching to all snow on Sunday. The blue is rain in the imagery (I would have chosen green). #TNwx #KYwx #ALwx

[Kasper]

I feel like at this point with all the model discrepancies……. I could predict the weather better with my joints! 
I can feel it in my bones, yep snow, nah that’s a cold rain. Wait here comes a thunderstorm, yada, yada, yada

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

They laid off 20 more people tonight

I am so sorry man. 

[Scottie16]

Is there a low forming off the coast of Carolina that isn’t allowing the cold to come all the way down?


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[Kasper]

7 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

I’m drunk. They laid off 20 more people tonight. Crazy how the HRRR in range is showing blistering cold into Kentucky with the PV and yet we’re in the upper 30s? Cmon now


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Scott, you’re in Sweetwater right?

[Scottie16]

I am so sorry man. 

All good. My 401k is healthy. It just sucks for people who aren’t as lucky as I am.


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[Scottie16]

Scott, you’re in Sweetwater right?

Yes sir


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[Kasper]

9 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

I’m drunk. They laid off 20 more people tonight. Crazy how the HRRR in range is showing blistering cold into Kentucky with the PV and yet we’re in the upper 30s? Cmon now


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3 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Yes sir


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I’ll holler at you sometime next week I’ve got some connections, I might be able to help you out….. I live in Athens. 
 

At least get you going until you find something more permanent.

[Scottie16]

I’ll holler at you sometime next week I’ve got some connections, I might be able to help you out….. I live in Athens. 
 
At least get you going until you find something more permanent.

Dude thank you so much. It’s Johns Manville laying off. They laid off everyone from the Mat Department today.


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[Greyhound]

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[Kasper]

4 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Dude thank you so much. It’s Johns Manville laying off. They laid off everyone from the Mat Department today.


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Yeah, I heard they were cutting, I have some friends that work over there.

The one thing I hate about factory work everyone is expendable 

[Kasper]

If I got my Jeep ready for rain, I’m gonna be pissed!!! Lol

[brewman22001]

I’ll holler at you sometime next week I’ve got some connections, I might be able to help you out….. I live in Athens. 
 
At least get you going until you find something more permanent.

Nice!! Thank you Kasper!! That’s exactly the way it should be, us taking care of one another. Awesome community here.!!


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[Kasper]

3 minutes ago, brewman22001 said:

Nice!! Thank you Kasper!! That’s exactly the way it should be, us taking care of one another. Awesome community here.!!


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Appreciate that, I’ll help when and if I can, I would hope that someone would do the same for me if needed! 

[GBOVolz]

This is what I meant earlier when I said the Euro is the exact opposite of consistency currently. It's getting to approximately the same place but is doing it differently each time. 

And this is why I’m so surprised so many are latching on to it. It’s been all over the place and made pretty wild jumps.


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[CDUB_VOL]

First time posting but been following for years. I have one question what time will the 0Z GFS roll out?