1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Still eventually rains to WVA, but to my eyes it was a tick south and colder. 

 

I wonder if there is a path to the northern stream wave dropping so far west of BC Canada than we end up with enough separation? 

[fountainguy97]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Here are your run to run changes at 500mb:

 

There is more separation:, but the northern shortwave still manages to scoop the Baja energy out and semi phase?

Yeah, that's a very weird shift on the euro and doesn't match anything else.
 

It rotating the northern energy that far west and flat, but it did tick better at the surface and that tells me there's still a lot of volatility in the northern stream which means we may have a shot.

[GBOVolz]

MRX isn’t ready to fold




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[Weatheriscool]

Looks like where I am at is still doing all right, for right now, the trend makes me nervous though. 

[fountainguy97]

12z will be a defining run I believe.

Remember the gfs 06z is basically the "middle ground" of what models showed a couple days ago.  
 

Could we see the models come back to the gfs? Euro excels in the 6-10 day period but I do think the gfs can be extremely strong in this 3-5 day slot.  I've seen that before. Euro picks it up initially and is the leader then loses it and the gfs remains consistent throughout.
 

Just some psych ward level wishcasting. 

[Tucker1027]

glad we trended colder by a tick on the 6z euro... maybe the bleeding will stop and it will trend back to us. 

[GBOVolz]

That BAM fellow nailed this. 

I wouldn’t be doing victory laps for him just yet.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

AIFS ticked north at 6z:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

I wouldn’t be doing victory laps for him just yet.

I need to go back and see exactly what he thought in the videos. I got the impression from others posts he was just riding the CMC and a typical climo NW trend and got lucky. 

I don't typically watch that sort of stuff because I would rather gouge out my own eyes. 

[GBOVolz]

I need to go back and see exactly what he thought in the videos. I got the impression from others posts he was just riding the CMC and a typical climo NW trend and got lucky. 
I don't typically watch that sort of stuff because I would rater gouge out my own eyes. 

I used to watch him a lot more before he went commercial with his stuff and teamed up with a website called clarity that is kinda like Weatherbell on a smaller scale. Then he started at forecasting towards his clients and he ruined it for me.

I know I shouldn’t be like this, but at this point I wanna see him take the L more than I care about how much snow we get.


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[Scottie16]

NWS calling the Euro run a mirage?


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

NWS calling the Euro run a mirage?


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I think they're just saying the recent northern trend may be one, or maybe not. The northern stream vort that's causing all this heartache is strung out north or the arctic circle now. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'm going to see if I can find it on satellite. 

[Scottie16]

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[Scottie16]

 
I think they're just saying the recent northern trend may be one, or maybe not. The northern stream vort that's causing all this heartache is strung out north or the arctic circle now. 

I agree


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[Scottie16]

12Z runs will have more data from the recon


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's part of this big upper low near Kamchatka right now. That's how far off it still is:

 

It gets spun off and has to ride over the arctic ridge and down into the desert southwest:

Watch close above on the Euro and you can see it take the ride

[housemtnTN]

Euro makes me want to vomit but I'm still optimistic.

[tnweathernut]

Some morning thoughts.  You don’t want to be on the southern edge of a snow shield 3 days out hoping for a SE shift and you don’t want the GFS to be the only model in your camp, hoping it can score the victory.

That said, these are the only cards we hold currently.  Hoping today on model watch……… the northern stream can stop its westward trend and move away from a phase.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

How does the NBM still show this? (Note this is not a response to what tnweathernut posted)

[Nash_LSU]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

How does the NBM still show this? (Note this is not a response to what tnweathernut posted)

 

NBM is typically the wet blanket, but it's the one model holding out hope for this storm. There's still a chance for this one to come back to us. 

[Silas Lang]

Pardon my ignorance, but I simply assumed the NMB was literally just solutions averaged out? Is it something else? Because I really don't understand how we are averaging this much snow still with some pretty big misses on some of the bigger models. 

[Vol4Life]

Saw this in the SE forum and supports what Holston is saying:

The WPC discussion is interesting:

”Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon, especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage”

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Euro may be a tick tick better for us. Maybe. It's definitely not worse 

Substantial differences between the 0z and 6z Euro in regards to high pressure over the top.  At 0z it lost it.  At 6z, it's back.  Not sure that changes the surface, but bizarre to see that big of a change from run to run.  I'll post a thumbnail here in just a sec of the differences - majorly different.  Probably why the 6z run was forced a hair south.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Someone on southernwx mentioned Dec 5 2002 as a potential analog:

 

There are some differences, but I'm not sure its totally off the table

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Silas Lang said:

Pardon my ignorance, but I simply assumed the NMB was literally just solutions averaged out? Is it something else? Because I really don't understand how we are averaging this much snow still with some pretty big misses on some of the bigger models. 

I 100% could be wrong, but I thought someone in NWS told it which ones to favor in its average? 

[Nash_LSU]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I 100% could be wrong, but I thought someone in NWS told it which ones to favor in its average? 

NBM is constantly adjusting it's model weights based on recent model verifications. 

"

The National Blend of Models (NBM) weighs individual weather models

by using statistical methods based on recent performance, primarily by minimizing Mean Absolute Error (MAE) against analyzed truth (URMA). Models with lower recent MAE get higher weights, but the system also uses bias correction (like quantile mapping) and can incorporate expert-derived weights, creating a more accurate composite forecast than any single model alone"

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looking at a gif jacksonhendrix posted on southernwx, it makes me wonder if this could even somehow trend to a plain old Miller A if the orientation of the trough continues to change, or even a bigger cutter?

 

If that trough digs more and ends up a bit more neutral near the Mississippi at verification time, I guess a miller A that rides up the coastal plain is possible, but I would rate it a low possibility at this time. 

[Carvers Gap]

I mean....the differences w/ hp over the top(especially nw of the system) from 0z to 6z are pretty startling.  It was gone at 0z and is back on 6z.  I have no idea why it wasn't there at 0z, and no idea why it is back at 6z.

[Carvers Gap]

FWIW, the 6z RFS model which John uses is in the 6z GFS camp(shaky, shaky camp).  It also handles the hp to the northwest of the system differently than the 0z Euro, but similarly to the 6z Euro.  What the Euro is doing is basically settling into a seam between to highs to the north, one over New England and one over Montana.  IF the Montana high is strong and bridges over to the New England high....the system slides on across.  The 0z Euro completely lost the hp to the northwest of the storm...returned at 6z.  I don't know.  I am guessing that we are getting better sampling of the northern features as they get closer to us.