1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Stovepipe]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

That BAM fellow nailed this. 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

That BAM fellow nailed this. 

A little more amping and OH isn't going to have to worry about snow on the Euro

[Matthew70]

Jax you called it severe wx!!!  We might just have it here Saturday.  

[TellicoWx]

And that was only a half sarcastic joke about BAM

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

And that was only a half sarcastic joke about BAM

Well it was fun to dream for a couple days.  Back to reality. Schools in kiddos next week.  

[TellicoWx]

Should have stuck to the old rule of thumb. Find the 850 LP and skip until a system shows where you are on the NW quadrant

[Stovepipe]

Brutal!

[Matthew70]

Well I gotta say.  I’m ready for spring.  I freaking hate the heartbreak winter always brings.

[Matthew70]

Just now, Stovepipe said:

Brutal!

You should put the BAM fellow as the monster 

[Stovepipe]

41 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

You should put the BAM fellow as the monster 

[*Flash*]

Winter Storm Watches posted for west and middle…

727 
FXUS64 KOHX 210450
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- High confidence a major winter storm will bring travel impacts this weekend. Ice may cause some power outages, mainly south of I-40. Stay tuned for the latest.

- Cold temperatures are expected to remain through early next week which will prolong impacts.

- Scattered showers expected tomorrow/tomorrow night with precipitation remaining as rain.

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Wednesday will begin with thickening clouds and chilly
temperatures, although not nearly as chilly as we experienced
Tuesday morning. Temps will warm pretty quickly as southwest wind
kick in with some gusts over 25 mph. A weak system will move in
with a good chance for light rain showers Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This system will bring all-liquid with no wintry precip
concerns. 

Behind Wednesday's system, high pressure will move in for Thursday
with a pretty nice day. Skies will be mainly sunny with near
normal temperatures. This will be a good day to complete your 
preparations for this weekend's wintry conditions.

Things will change Friday as an Arctic cold front drops into the 
area, setting the stage for our well-advertised winter storm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Here is a review of the scenario: an upper level trough will be 
situated off the southern coast of California on Friday. Ahead of 
the trough, southwesterly flow will send anomalously high moisture
through the southern plains and into the southeast. This will 
override the cold air that settles into our area on Friday. In 
addition, some of that energy is expected to eject out of the Baja
region eastward on Saturday. The amount of energy coming out of
the southwest and amount of phasing between the northern and
southern streams will impact the surface system and amount of warmadvection up into Middle Tennessee. The strength of the cold air mass coming from the north will also affect the moisture and
temperature profiles. So, a lot going on here and still a lot of very possible outcomes. 

The latest NBM data looks generally similar to yesterday's in 
terms of 3/6/9 inch snow probabilities and 0.25" ice potential.
This means a high-end, mainly snow event along and north of I-40.
For areas south of I-40, still a significant snow accumulation
potential but more of a wintry mix with potential for sleet and
freezing rain.

The NBM trends will need to be watched as we now have a couple of models showing a stronger warm nose building up from the south. 
The 18Z ECMWF and 00Z NAM are showing the 850 freezing line 
pushing up near I-40 on Saturday. We still think an all or mostly 
snow event is unfolding for areas along and north of I-40. but 
south of I-40 we may need to message increasing concerns for ice. 

If it warms enough for appreciable freezing rain, then glaze on 
trees and power lines will increase the risk for power outages. If
the warmth is just enough for sleet, that will not impact trees  and power as much, but it will make a travel mess while  substantially limiting snow totals. All of this said, based on probabilities for significant winter wx amounts and impacts, we 
will likely hoist a Winter Storm Watch later tonight or Wednesday 
morning after collaboration with WPC and our neighboring offices.

Our key messages are: high confidence in winter weather with 
potentially major travel impacts this weekend. Go ahead and make 
preparations and plan to stay home unless you must travel. We are 
growing more concerned about ice with possible power outages for 
areas south of I-40. South of I-40 is where the biggest questions 
exist. Precip type will determine how much freezing rain, sleet, 
and/or snow falls. 

Whatever falls is likely to stick around and impact travel for
several days with cold air locked in place. Temperatures for some
areas will stay below freezing through midweek.

[Wurbus]

Woke up in the middle of the night to that 00z disaster. Feels like we are the Falcons and was just up 28-3 at halftime in the Super Bowl......

[Weatheriscool]

18 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Winter Storm Watches posted for west and middle…

727 
FXUS64 KOHX 210450
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- High confidence a major winter storm will bring travel impacts this weekend. Ice may cause some power outages, mainly south of I-40. Stay tuned for the latest.

- Cold temperatures are expected to remain through early next week which will prolong impacts.

- Scattered showers expected tomorrow/tomorrow night with precipitation remaining as rain.

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Wednesday will begin with thickening clouds and chilly
temperatures, although not nearly as chilly as we experienced
Tuesday morning. Temps will warm pretty quickly as southwest wind
kick in with some gusts over 25 mph. A weak system will move in
with a good chance for light rain showers Wednesday afternoon and
evening. This system will bring all-liquid with no wintry precip
concerns. 

Behind Wednesday's system, high pressure will move in for Thursday
with a pretty nice day. Skies will be mainly sunny with near
normal temperatures. This will be a good day to complete your 
preparations for this weekend's wintry conditions.

Things will change Friday as an Arctic cold front drops into the 
area, setting the stage for our well-advertised winter storm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Here is a review of the scenario: an upper level trough will be 
situated off the southern coast of California on Friday. Ahead of 
the trough, southwesterly flow will send anomalously high moisture
through the southern plains and into the southeast. This will 
override the cold air that settles into our area on Friday. In 
addition, some of that energy is expected to eject out of the Baja
region eastward on Saturday. The amount of energy coming out of
the southwest and amount of phasing between the northern and
southern streams will impact the surface system and amount of warmadvection up into Middle Tennessee. The strength of the cold air mass coming from the north will also affect the moisture and
temperature profiles. So, a lot going on here and still a lot of very possible outcomes. 

The latest NBM data looks generally similar to yesterday's in 
terms of 3/6/9 inch snow probabilities and 0.25" ice potential.
This means a high-end, mainly snow event along and north of I-40.
For areas south of I-40, still a significant snow accumulation
potential but more of a wintry mix with potential for sleet and
freezing rain.

The NBM trends will need to be watched as we now have a couple of models showing a stronger warm nose building up from the south. 
The 18Z ECMWF and 00Z NAM are showing the 850 freezing line 
pushing up near I-40 on Saturday. We still think an all or mostly 
snow event is unfolding for areas along and north of I-40. but 
south of I-40 we may need to message increasing concerns for ice. 

If it warms enough for appreciable freezing rain, then glaze on 
trees and power lines will increase the risk for power outages. If
the warmth is just enough for sleet, that will not impact trees  and power as much, but it will make a travel mess while  substantially limiting snow totals. All of this said, based on probabilities for significant winter wx amounts and impacts, we 
will likely hoist a Winter Storm Watch later tonight or Wednesday 
morning after collaboration with WPC and our neighboring offices.

Our key messages are: high confidence in winter weather with 
potentially major travel impacts this weekend. Go ahead and make 
preparations and plan to stay home unless you must travel. We are 
growing more concerned about ice with possible power outages for 
areas south of I-40. South of I-40 is where the biggest questions 
exist. Precip type will determine how much freezing rain, sleet, 
and/or snow falls. 

Whatever falls is likely to stick around and impact travel for
several days with cold air locked in place. Temperatures for some
areas will stay below freezing through midweek.

I am up to 17.5 for Saturday, 2.2 for Sunday on wunderground, a little more on weather channel app. Glad they pulled trigger helps people prepare 

[Hillbilly]

To put this into perspective, the ECMWF trend north the last four runs.

[Wurbus]

6z GFS throws us a bone. Still don't trust it but it gives most of us a good thump of snow before switching to a mixed bag of precip.

[fountainguy97]

On the positive side we have 36 more hours for this to tick one way or another so it does have room to come back. 

The Baja energy has been sampled some but the northern piece which is where the trend has happened hasn't been touched yet and won't be for a while.

But don't hold your breath. 

[Tucker1027]

.

[Uncle Nasty]

After reading discussions from the pros in Morristown at the NWS, I'm going old school and just going to wait and see what happens. They even say they don't know. In the Hamilton County detailed forecast they are saying sleet, freezing rain, and heavy snow accumulations Saturday and Saturday night. They said models are changing so much they have no way of determining where the snow line will shift. They really don't know. They are keeping temps below 32° for the high Saturday and staying below freezing late Friday night through Sunday afternoon. We might still get it. Remember the old days! Just wait and see what happens.

I honestly think we have wayyyy too many different models. They need to just go old school and actually read the maps and make manual adjustments based on climatology and micro-climates. A lot of the new mets are relying on a computer models to tell us what will happen instead of putting in the work to figure out small details. Time will tell.

Sorry for the long post. Not a rant, just trying to see things from the eyes of the pros.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[fountainguy97]

17 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

On the positive side we have 36 more hours for this to tick one way or another so it does have room to come back. 

The Baja energy has been sampled some but the northern piece which is where the trend has happened hasn't been touched yet and won't be for a while.

But don't hold your breath. 

Case in point. The 06z Uk just ticked the northern wave 50 miles further east (more separation). 

[Scottie16]

.

[Scottie16]

EPS looks to be trending south.


.

[fountainguy97]

Uk shift at 06z. Not insignificant. Euro to follow?

[Scottie16]

Uk shift at 06z. Not insignificant. Euro to follow?

LEEEEEETS RIDE.

In all seriousness, I think we see the Euro trend back south this run.


.

[fountainguy97]

Euro may be a tick tick better for us. Maybe. It's definitely not worse 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Saw someone on southernwx mention the WPC gives us some hope. 

 

So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we dont see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent.

 

 

 

 

 

 

*Have a weather model emotional gambling problem? Call 1-800-HATE-ME1

[Holston_River_Rambler]

IMO there are definitely some differences with the shortwaves between 0z and 6z:

 

Will it lead to a different result? We'll see. 

[fountainguy97]

Definite tick for more separation. A tick in the right direction

[brewman22001]

Saw someone on southernwx mention the WPC gives us some hope. 
 
So how confident are we in this trend, and will it continue or revert back to earlier runs, is the big question. Given the nearly unanimous trend in this direction, and at least a couple model runs in a row showing such a trend, it does seem like this shift has some merit. However, overall run to run consistency has shown pretty large swings with the exact handling of both the southern and northern stream energy. Suspect that the exact details of these features is far from settled upon...especially the northern stream energy which is currently strung out across much of western Canada into the arctic. Thus tend to think that the unanimous model trend could be a slight mirage and suggests more confidence in a solution than there actually is at this point. Either way, it should be stressed that in just about every outcome we get a widespread and major winter storm with many areas getting significant impacts regardless of these exact details. These details are, however, important for exactly where the maximum snow and ice totals occur. The current WPC QPF and temperatures were derived before much of this 00z guidance was available, and thus is a bit south of the new consensus. As described above, no guarantee we dont see a shift back south in later models...but assuming some persistence in the 06z/12z models then the WPC update today would likely shift north to at least some extent.
 
 
 
 
 
 
*Have a weather model emotional gambling problem? Call 1-800-HATE-ME1

This system has aged me . It’s certainly been fun to track and been more than emotionally draining


.

[Tucker1027]

Chattanooga MET this morning saying they buy the northern trend, but don’t buy the temp profiles on the euro yet.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are your run to run changes at 500mb:

 

There is more separation:, but the northern shortwave still manages to scoop the Baja energy out and semi phase?