January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Brick Tamland]

3k NAM through hour 60.

 

[AirNelson39]

It’s just so far off what everything else is showing for central NC, I really don’t get it. Like 0 freezing rain for places all other models show an inch or more.

[Blacksburg Coach]

35 minutes ago, suzook said:

Bunch of amateurs you are! I used to live in the North...Now that's constant back and forth and stress November through March. I don't miss it.

I'm a Dolphins fan I've become numb to disappointment

[suzook]

2 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

It’s just so far off what everything else is showing for central NC, I really don’t get it. Like 0 freezing rain for places all other models show an inch or more.

Its the NAM. Honestly, we probably should be looking at the HRRR. But to be honest, this CAD is a bitch to figure out. It will be a nowcasting type of deal. Unfortunately lots of people will end up with a lot of ice. Where? Stay tuned.

[suzook]

2 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

I'm a Dolphins fan I've become numb to disappointment

Well, I am a cowboys fan...yes I said it. I feel your pain.

[gman]

Praying for NAM to be right. 

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, suzook said:

Well, I am a cowboys fan...yes I said it. I feel your pain.

Im a Bills fan! You want to talk about disappointment? We apparently live for it

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Im a Bills fan! You want to talk about disappointment? We apparently live for it

I’m a Packers fan. We can hug and cry together. 

[Jimbo!]

Sorry guys I ruined the storm, just had to leave voicemail for surgeon. Took a nap and woke up to a 101.5 fever.


.

[CentralNC]

Raleigh disco out

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

[gman]

Been sunny in Greenville for the last hour. Makes me wonder if the high pressure is even stronger than expected, pushing the sleet line further south?

[DTP]

12 minutes ago, suzook said:

Its the NAM. Honestly, we probably should be looking at the HRRR. But to be honest, this CAD is a bitch to figure out. It will be a nowcasting type of deal. Unfortunately lots of people will end up with a lot of ice. Where? Stay tuned.

NAM verbatim looks like a lot of IP in CLT/SC upstate w intermittent freezing drizzle between the IP showers.....looks to be some sort of upper level dynamics/instability on the southern end of the wedge- you can see the showery nature early and then how it fills in around CLT.  Not that it will snow (not happening with the warm nose)- but we have all seen that similar signature with a trailing ULL on sliders around the southern part of the wedge

 

The latest NAM is the first run out of the last few days where I have actually seen something plausible given the setup based on previous real world outcomes in our region

 

Apparently followed by a ZR squall line to end it= also somewhat suspect.....normally these end with a period of light snow with the wind veering a couple clicks east of due north, even in the NC piedmont/SC Upstate as the arctic front squeezes every last bit of moisture out

 

Then downsloping cuts everything off as everything shifts a couple clicks west of due north, and the settles somewhere between 270 and 320

[DTP]

25 minutes ago, DTP said:

NAM verbatim looks like a lot of IP in CLT/SC upstate w intermittent freezing drizzle between the IP showers.....looks to be some sort of upper level dynamics/instability on the southern end of the wedge- you can see the showery nature early and then how it fills in around CLT.  Not that it will snow (not happening with the warm nose)- but we have all seen that similar signature with a trailing ULL on sliders around the southern part of the wedge

 

The latest NAM is the first run out of the last few days where I have actually seen something plausible given the setup based on previous real world outcomes in our region

 

Apparently followed by a ZR squall line to end it= also somewhat suspect.....normally these end with a period of light snow with the wind veering a couple clicks east of due north, even in the NC piedmont/SC Upstate as the arctic front squeezes every last bit of moisture out

 

Then downsloping cuts everything off as everything shifts a couple clicks west of due north, and the settles somewhere between 270 and 320

Different 850s entirely (we are not going to have snow out of this), but the radar signature on the latest NAM is very similar to the storm in 2004 that dropped 18-24" on snow in CLT/Rock Hill.  We got 4" on the front end with that storm, then a dry slot, then everything filled right back in with the ULL in virtually the same location as what the NAM is currently depicting.   Temps during the 2004 storm were 7-10 degrees warmer at the surface than this storm; however, the cold air from both storms was from CAD as well

Like I said, different 850s......but same signature-  this would be sleet, and lots of it

[Brick Tamland]

GFS

[Brick Tamland]

[WNC_Fort]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Have a sleet map?

[Brick Tamland]

RAP looks to have more snow at the start for northern NC. Also has the precip coming in a whole lot sooner. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

18 minutes ago, DTP said:

Different 850s entirely (we are not going to have snow out of this), but the radar signature on the latest NAM is very similar to the storm in 2004 that dropped 18-24" on snow in CLT/Rock Hill.  We got 4" on the front end with that storm, then a dry slot, then everything filled right back in with the ULL in virtually the same location as what the NAM is currently depicting.   Temps during the 2004 storm were 7-10 degrees warmer at the surface than this storm; however, the cold air from both storms was from CAD as well

Like I said, different 850s......but same signature-  this would be sleet, and lots of it

Agree with this.  Think just north of ATL & points north and east from there up through Athens & Gainesville up 85 see a lot more sleet than freezing rain. 

[lilj4425]

11 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That’s ugly for the GSP metro area. Yikes.

[Brick Tamland]

RAP has snow here in Wake at 6:00 PM tomorrow night, while the others don't have precip here until after midnight.

[DTP]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Agree with this.  Think just north of ATL & points north and east from there up through Athens & Gainesville up 85 see a lot more sleet than freezing rain. 

Given the topo, placement of normal CAD/wind direction, the attendant high(s) (apparently the high is going to split), spotty/showery initial nature of the precip, plus DPs/temps- latest NAM finally looks to be picking some granularity ....

[Brick Tamland]

RAP has about 3 hours of snow for Wake before turning to sleet and then going back and forth with freezing rain and sleet.

[thunderwolf]

Certainly the quicker we can get precip into NC, the greater the snow chances will be. At the same time, the dew points will be so low Sat evening, its hard to imagine any precip actually making it to the surface.
 

[Brick Tamland]

RAP

[Brick Tamland]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

RAP has about 3 hours of snow for Wake before turning to sleet and then going back and forth with freezing rain and sleet.

What rates are you looking at during that period?

[suzook]

The models at this point seem to be honing in on what's going to happen. Let's keep this in mind for next week's event. A different set up, but these southern storms are difficult to figure out more than a couple days out.