January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[SnowGoose69]

If the trends hold I am less worried about ATL.  I'd expect the GFS eventually goes way warmer there.  Ultimately may only see a brief 8-10 hour period of FZRA there 03-12Z or so Sun AM but we have a ways to go

[JoshM]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

If the trends hold I am less worried about ATL.  I'd expect the GFS eventually goes way warmer there.  Ultimately may only see a brief 8-10 hour period of FZRA there 03-12Z or so Sun AM but we have a ways to go

GSP to CLT is the area that I'm most worried over for ZR. 

[Coach McGuirk]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If the trends hold I am less worried about ATL.  I'd expect the GFS eventually goes way warmer there.  Ultimately may only see a brief 8-10 hour period of FZRA there 03-12Z or so Sun AM but we have a ways to go

At this point, I think anything can happen.  

[Thrasher Fan]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If the trends hold I am less worried about ATL.  I'd expect the GFS eventually goes way warmer there.  Ultimately may only see a brief 8-10 hour period of FZRA there 03-12Z or so Sun AM but we have a ways to go

And that is more than enough time to decimate a pine tree forest that hasn't seen an ice storm in close to a decade.

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

GSP to CLT is the area that I'm most worried over for ZR. 

I live in Greenville. Thanks.  

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, andrew29649 said:

Considering there would be QPF equivalent of frozen precip of at least 1” would that not help hold surface temps below freezing in the areas that show the CAD eroding? 

Said differently, do the models take into account snow, ZR, IP on the ground when modeling 2M temps?

I would think there would be an insulating factor here…

Yes, which is working against us in this scenario. With the warm mid levels and the cold surface temps, thats a disasterous recipe, especially if the HP keeps funneling the cold air. 

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

GSP to CLT is the area that I'm most worried over for ZR. 

100%. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

[USCG RS]

Ukie looks like it saves Upstate SC and parts of WNC, but the CAD is still really strong. It looks like its going to be pretty tough to scour out this LL cold air unless the storm Amps even further than we have seen in trends as of late. 

[Silver Meteor]

13 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

At this point, I think anything can happen.  

Thanks for the insight. 

[ADB83]

I’m praying Winston Salem gets spared the ZR. The QPF has been consistently 1.5+. The trends are heading that way though. Best I can hope for is IP 

[USCG RS]

[JoshM]

UKMet has a bias to over amp these things over land. With that being said, the CAD still holds.

[AGardiner87]

Not liking the trends for the CLT area. This could be a rough week! 
 

[Coach McGuirk]

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

The CAD will hold stronger than that, trust me. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, Coach McGuirk said:

The CAD will hold stronger than that, trust me. 

Yes. That is my belief -&- concern. 

[andrew29649]

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1B8YyNq9AP/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Verbatim: Don’t doubt the wedge. Low pressure tends to take the path of least resistance. High pressure is locked in, the Low isn’t going to plow into it. Expect a slight southward trend on the models coming up.

[SEwakenosnowforu]

2 minutes ago, JoshM said:

UKMet has a bias to over amp these things over land. With that being said, the CAD still holds.

Yeah...in your area!

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, andrew29649 said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1B8YyNq9AP/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Verbatim: Don’t doubt the wedge. Low pressure tends to take the path of least resistance. High pressure is locked in, the Low isn’t going to plow into it. Expect a slight southward trend on the models coming up.

And yet the models continue to trend north. lol.

[JoshM]

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

And yet the models continue to trend north. lol.

We've also seen 11th hour flips in the models, too. And nothing surprises me with this storm.

[ADB83]

The GFS caved let’s face it, although Euro not great at CAD so there’s the matter of what type of frozen precipitation is going to fall. But the GFS sucks compared to the Euro, we knew it would cave, and it did lol 

[JoshM]

10 minutes ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Yeah...in your area!

My point was the CAD will be a lot more robust due to the over amping bias

[85snowline]

25 minutes ago, andrew29649 said:

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1B8YyNq9AP/?mibextid=wwXIfr
 

Verbatim: Don’t doubt the wedge. Low pressure tends to take the path of least resistance. High pressure is locked in, the Low isn’t going to plow into it. Expect a slight southward trend on the models coming up.

voice of reason. Finally someone speaks some real facts!! 

[Coach McGuirk]

27 minutes ago, JoshM said:

My point was the CAD will be a lot more robust due to the over amping bias

Look at the arctic high, this is going to be a big time CAD event. 

[Snowncanes]

Euro looks nearly identical to 12z at 42 on the 500vort

[LakeNormanStormin]

Expecting the power to go out here in Lake Norman area around Sunday night.

Sleet to 24 hours of freezing rain sucks.

[Coach McGuirk]

1 minute ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Expecting the power to go out here in Lake Norman area around Sunday night.

Sleet to 24 hours of freezing rain sucks.

I actually kind of want a ZR storm.  I want to take some sweet pics. 

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I actually kind of want a ZR storm.  I want to take some sweet pics. 

Good. You can have it. You can have mine also lol. Just keep it away from Greenville. 

[LakeNormanStormin]

2 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

I actually kind of want a ZR storm.  I want to take some sweet pics. 

Where are you at?

I mean I'm prepared. But this crimps my weekend shenanigans 

[Coach McGuirk]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Good. You can have it. You can have mine also lol. Just keep it away from Greenville. 

Make the best out of a bad situation. 

[Coach McGuirk]

1 minute ago, LakeNormanStormin said:

Where are you at?

I mean I'm prepared. But this crimps my weekend shenanigans 

Yorktown, VA.