January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[NorthHillsWx]

@eyewall the 6” snow probability for Raleigh is at 0% on the 0z EPS for Raleigh. We’re totally cooked

[burgertime]

6z GFS looks better than the Euro out to 84. Front end thump of snow inbound for upstate SC and most of NC. 

[burgertime]

Out to 90 the 6z GFS keeps NC all snow. Upstate area of SC is also snow but on the edge. GA mainly ZR. 

[WiseWeather]

This may be the best gfs run we have seen…


.

[JoshM]

I'm hoping the recon data the GFS ingested is giving us a more accurate solution 

[burgertime]

By hour 96 it's a sleet fest for NC and upstate. The GFS keeps those waves at 500 seperate and doesn't slingshot the low directly into the wedge. This looks more likely. 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS ticked north slightly, but mostly unchanged 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS drags ZR line to wake but doesn’t look like it makes it to Raleigh proper. Just a pounding sleet storm 

[burgertime]

For folks in upstate and NC this is before the switch over happens. Points I-40 north see the switch over last. That is still a big dump of snow up front and matches what @HKY_WX was saying yesterday. 

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Sleet maps for central NC will be memorable for this run

[burgertime]

Radar by p-type. 

 

 

[WiseWeather]

Idk how you can argue with the gfs at this point… its been rock steady for 3 runs.


.

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sleet maps for central NC will be memorable for this run

Gonna be inches if 6z is correct. 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

For folks in upstate and NC this is before the switch over happens. Points I-40 north see the switch over last. That is still a big dump of snow up front and matches what @HKY_WX was saying yesterday. 

 

 

That’s not snow in Georgia or upstate. GFS starts the snow line at the NC border. Think that’s reading the sleet and ZR as snow especially in Georgia. I may be wrong 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, WiseWeather said:

Idk how you can argue with the gfs at this point… its been rock steady for 3 runs.


.

If you’re gonna be wrong, you may as well choose a hill to die on

[burgertime]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s not snow in Georgia or upstate. GFS starts the snow line at the NC border. Think that’s reading the sleet and ZR as snow especially in Georgia. I may be wrong 

Just looking at the map on my phone it looks like thermals would be good enough for snow verbatim up to 93 or so in upstate but it for sure is on the edge. Not much margin there but could be wrong of course.

[WiseWeather]

Well if it isnt 13 inches give me sunny and 70.


.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Gonna be inches if 6z is correct. 

Like 6”+

[Tacoma]

with such a strong hp to the north I don't see the lp going north to much, I think that was a fluke that we've all seen before.  if anything I think the storm would trend south a little with that kind of hp to the north

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS against the world, what could go wrong? 

[olafminesaw]

Praying for a sleet bomb and not the ZR Nightmare the Euro depicts at this point. The 6z GFS at least didn't make any big jumps north so maybe the 6z suite can stop the bleeding (although I know many believe the corpse to be already dead)

[mstr4j]

@NorthHillsWx - let's say the high is predicted correctly in strength (1038-1048) and can stay in that general Pennsylvania/NY region.  Do you believe or have you seen a huge LP system just barrel through it or even run the HP up out of there?

Common sense tells me cold dense air will slide under it and down the apps making the CAD strong (granted ice is freaking scary).  Jist curious if you have seen anything like this or have an opinion either way?  Thanks

[lilj4425]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS against the world, what could go wrong? 

Not even the NAM is on its side. lol. 

[olafminesaw]

GEFS still not buying the Euro, ticked south at 6z

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

@NorthHillsWx - let's say the high is predicted correctly in strength (1038-1048) and can stay in that general Pennsylvania/NY region.  Do you believe or have you seen a huge LP system just barrel through it or even run the HP up out of there?

Common sense tells me cold dense air will slide under it and down the apps making the CAD strong (granted ice is freaking scary).  Jist curious if you have seen anything like this or have an opinion either way?  Thanks

Short answer- yes. Strength of HP does not mean it cannot get caught up in the flow and be transient. This is a huge common misconception that strong HP areas just can’t be moved, if there isn’t blocking, they will just keep on going. That being said, in this case we do have blocking. What we’ve seen shift is orientation. As the trough tends to dig further west, it is pulling our HP further north and opening up an escape path for our low to ride up the coast, in this case a miller B. Also while our HP is strong, the low has been trending stronger as well meaning it isn’t simply going to slide under the high. The high remains in an optimal spot for CAD areas so low level cold very likely will be there in the CAD favored regions throughout the storm but our storm system is likely still going to trend north as well as long as the trough keeps moving west. If I had to make a call now I’d say ATL has ice to rain, upstate has sleet to ice, SC midlands stay mostly ice, triad/foothills mostly sleet, triangle sleet to ice and coastal plain sleet to ice to rain. Snow will likely be limited to border counties and relatively brief. Think max snowfall might actually be in DC area up into Pennsylvania. Virginia likely gets thumped but I think with the coastal and miller b that warm nose changes the southern half over to sleet and eastern Virginia might actually be dancing with cold rain (Va beach, eastern shore). 

[olafminesaw]

And the full run

[mstr4j]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Short answer- yes. Strength of HP does not mean it cannot get caught up in the flow and be transient. This is a huge common misconception that strong HP areas just can’t be moved, if there isn’t blocking, they will just keep on going. That being said, in this case we do have blocking. What we’ve seen shift is orientation. As the trough tends to dig further west, it is pulling our HP further north and opening up an escape path for our low to ride up the coast, in this case a miller B. Also while our HP is strong, the low has been trending stronger as well meaning it isn’t simply going to slide under the high. The high remains in an optimal spot for CAD areas so low level cold very likely will be there in the CAD favored regions throughout the storm but our storm system is likely still going to trend north as well as long as the trough keeps moving west. If I had to make a call now I’d say ATL has ice to rain, upstate has sleet to ice, SC midlands stay mostly ice, triad/foothills mostly sleet, triangle sleet to ice and coastal plain sleet to ice to rain. Snow will likely be limited to border counties and relatively brief. Think max snowfall might actually be in DC area up into Pennsylvania. Virginia likely gets thumped but I think with the coastal and miller b that warm nose changes the southern half over to sleet and eastern Virginia might actually be dancing with cold rain (Va beach, eastern shore). 

Gotcha- Great explanation, I appreciate it. Ends up being a typical Miller B storm for us then just have some blocking and solid HP which = No Bueno / Ice will be brutal

[Scottie16]

Hello from the TN Valley. I hope this helps some!


.

[burgertime]

This storm is very similar to the late Jan 2010 storm. I had to go back to my archives but this is what the models showed then. This had less cold air to work with and we ended up with loads of sleet after an initial thump of snow. There was more confluence in the NE which def helped keep it south. 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

We’re 3 days out so my initial forecast calls:

Triangle- <1” SN, 2-3” IP, 25-.30” ZR

Triad- 1” SN, 3-4” IP, .10-.25 ZR

Foothills- 1-3” SN, 4-5” IP, TR-0.10” ZR

Charlotte- TR-1/2” SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.30” ZR

Upstate- TR SN, 2-3” IP, .25-.40” ZR

ATL- TR-1/2” IP, 0.25-0.40” ZR (cold rain to finish) 

NC coastal plain- TR-1/2” SN, TR-2” IP, .25-.75” ZR Could see some isolated heavier amounts to 1” ZR if temps stay in 20’s). Switches to rain at coast and inland by a county or two limiting accumulation in those areas.

SC low country-Midlands-NC Sandhills- TR-2” IP (more north and west), .25-1” ZR possibly a few higher totals in Sandhills to NW of Columbia. Switches to rain after light icing along the coast.
 

Think worst ice runs from Greenville NC to Fayetteville to newberry SC to Greenwood SC and a county on either side of that line as first guess. Could extend further into GA as well especially Athens to Gainesville 

Praying a lot in NC and upstate get a sleet bomb