Jan 17-18 Sunday Funday Storm

[NorthHillsWx]

I love how over the last 48 hours RAH went from “temps should not be an issue” to “temps are the issue” 

[olafminesaw]

18 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’d be OK with where we are if the cold was here. No cold, mid day, light rates… Think some folks will be fighting for an inch between central Georgia and Richmond but that’s about it 

I do think rates will over perform somewhere and there will be a surprise, in a narrow band. Just impossible to nail down where until Sunday

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

I do think rates will over perform somewhere and there will be a surprise, in a narrow band. Just impossible to nail down where until Sunday

I still think the triangle/raleigh area is in about the best spot you can be in for the system the question then becomes if there even is a good spot on Sunday. Do think there are a few positives today vs last night but the ceiling for the event has come down even in whatever area is the sweet spot.

[WXNewton]

12z NAM throws away the last bit of hope. Much further east, some snow in parts of S.GA and S.SC. 3KM is a little better but still east with much of the precip and some slop in Central and Eastern NC

[eyewall]

I think we can call time of death on this one following the 12z GFS.

[wncsnow]

Put the nail in the coffin on this one. At least we kinda had something to track?

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, eyewall said:

I think we can call time of death on this one following the 12z GFS.

I still don’t think this one ever had a chance. Euro never bit. The king

[GaWx]

 Very rare S GA snow: will it happen? This potential is exciting, but accumulations are probably overdone. I’ll be considering driving to it if it’s within a 1-1.5 hours drive out I-16 assuming the roads are not too affected, which is my guess due to marginal 2m temps. Right here, I’m hoping for a few flurries mixed in with the rain, but there could easily not be any snow mixing in as it doesn’t look quite cold enough right now though I’ll keep monitoring for model changes:

6Z 1/16 EPS:

 

6Z 1/16 GEFS:

 

6Z 1/16 Euro AI ens is more realistic imho with lower accums (<1”) but even that would be a rare event:

 

[Brick Tamland]

NAM went from this

 

To this in one run.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM went from this

 

To this in one run.

Thanks, Brick. Even that’s probably overdone in much of the blue area (1”+) due to marginal temps. But that blue area on your 12Z map an hour or so to my west is my tentative target for a Sun PM drive.

[Brick Tamland]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I love how over the last 48 hours RAH went from “temps should not be an issue” to “temps are the issue” 

Really feels like no one knows what will happen with regards to winter storms here until we are 24 hours out or less. First it was we weren't going to have enough precip and temps weren't an issue to now temps are going to be too warm. The GFS and NAM have been all over the place. It's sad that the NAM goes from 6 inches here to nothing in one run just 48 hours out. They need to figure out something with these models because it seems the algorithms they use now don't match our climate data or something anymore because they shouldn't be that bad. It feels like the Euro is the only one that is worth looking at to see if there is going to be a chance of snow and then maybe the short range models like the HRRR inside 24 hours for totals. 

[Brick Tamland]

Well, the Canadian goes from rain to snow for NE NC.

[Brick Tamland]