Jan 17-18 Sunday Funday Storm

[gamecockinupstateSC]

Euro increased measurable snow from Newberry to Greenville SC.  .5 to .8 amounts.  Nothing major but better last three runs.  1 inch line approaching Augusta GA/SC line. Hopefully a few ticks like this more can occur. 

[SnowDawg]

New SREF mean vs 21z. Never been that impressed with the SREF but interesting nonetheless. 
Old

New

[NorthHillsWx]

Euro back in the game central NC. BL colder bc of precip and 1-2” snow 

[WXNewton]

6z Nam back west, snow breaking out all the way into the foothills.

[SnowDawg]

Trend is clear as day on the NAM. The angle of moisture fetch off the gulf has improved dramatically. I think the NW portion of that precip shield is likely under-modeled as well. Between the terrain and the sloped arctic front aiding in lift, it won’t take a ton of moisture to squeeze something out further north and west. Still too early to feel confident in it, but who woulda thought this time last night that we’d still be in the game?

Precipitable water values trend on NAM 3km.

[WXNewton]

6z GFS and ensembles show a significant improvement in the amount of moisture across the entire state.

[Brick Tamland]

No doubt all the major models have trended west and with more snow in NC. Euro, GFS and NAM have all trended better.

[BornAgain13]

New SREF

[Brick Tamland]

Plenty of moisture on the HRRR but need more cold. 

[suzook]

Still not impressed for my area. Models consistently bust for the amount of precip we are supposed to get. Add that with the temps, and we might see some white rain. I do think central/south GA do well though.

[DeltaPilot]

Trend has been our friend though Suzook!  Still think its not going to be cold enough for it to stick. 

[olafminesaw]

850 temps at onset favor snow West of 85 and rain East. Doesn't push the cold air East until after most of the moisture has exited. Just something to watch Tommorow morning 

[fig]

Going to be a toasty 63 today down on the NC coast. Hope someone gets snow tomorrow... Jealous!

[Brick Tamland]

NAM looks better than the HRRR, but still a lot of precip wasted as rain.

[BornAgain13]

12z NAM is a hit just NW of Raleigh. Narrow stripe. 3k NAM is further NW with light to moderate snow for a good area. 

[Brick Tamland]

3k NAM 

 

[olafminesaw]

Approximate cutoff between what will largely fall as rain vs mostly snow (assuming the NAM's temp profiles are correct) Within the snow zone, a coating to half an inch is possible with a small chance of more if banding develops. 

[Brick Tamland]

Well, Webber said no snow at all for the Triangle. I guess that's the ballgame. 

[stormwatcherJ]

Would love to get a little something here in Hillsborough, but that rain/snow line is always west of predictions. I’ll say Greensboro will be a rain/snow mix, west of Greensboro a little snow, east of Greensboro all rain. Would love to be wrong.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Well, Webber said no snow at all for the Triangle. I guess that's the ballgame. 

He’s good at what he does and his reasoning makes sense.  At least we had something to follow and there are more chances coming up.

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

Would love to get a little something here in Hillsborough, but that rain/snow line is always west of predictions. I’ll say Greensboro will be a rain/snow mix, west of Greensboro a little snow, east of Greensboro all rain. Would love to be wrong.

You have a decent shot.

[hrtsdsn]

At this point I'll be happy if i just see a few flakes.  

 

[SnowDawg]

NAM was a bit flatter that run. The question will be whether that becomes a trend or just a blip, and it’s gonna windshield wiper back later today.

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

He’s good at what he does and his reasoning makes sense.  At least we had something to follow and there are more chances coming up.

He can be annoyingly arrogant so it would be fun to see him get egg on his face, but I don't think it will be this time.  As he has pointed out (over and over and over) with no established high the cold air is chasing moisture and in the history of NWP that has never worked out.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

NAM was a bit flatter that run. The question will be whether that becomes a trend or just a blip, and it’s gonna windshield wiper back later today.

Also colder (then 6z anyway) a bit of a double edged sword, which is why there isn't much upside with this one 

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

He can be annoyingly arrogant so it would be fun to see him get egg on his face, but I don't think it will be this time.  As he has pointed out (over and over and over) with no established high the cold air is chasing moisture and in the history of NWP that has never worked out.

That's not what he was saying at the start, but he'll never say he changed his mind.

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That's not what he was saying at the start, but he'll never say he changed his mind.

I missed his early pronouncements; was he bullish?

[Brick Tamland]

GFS at hour 27.

[Brick Tamland]

GFS looks good at hour 30 and 33. Has snow further east.

 

[Brick Tamland]