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Storm potential January 17th-18th


WeatherGeek2025
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7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NAM has nothing. Almost no precip for most of us. 
 

Guys, we are 2 days away from this event. We’ll need more than just a few AI models to actually get something. We would’ve needed drastic changes today. Instead almost all models still show a whiff except for AI 

it’s done 

nam is west

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12 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Hold the phone - i get 6 inches on the GFS Saturday?  Nah.

0.4" liquid in 6 hours showing up on globals and mesos. It's very isolated and variable in placement. But someone could get a surprise with some intense frontogenic banding on Saturday!

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Don't sleep on Sat. It's basically a mesoscale event. Could be nothing or a fast 3". Pretty significant FGEN values across multiple models. And it could come in multiple bursts predawn or daytime. My guess is CT or the HV is the winner, but a few runs have targeted CNJ to NYC. Could be a fun nowcast with low expectations.

Contrary to what some say, this would have no trouble accumulating with 0.1" liquid per hour at 33F. Most will probably miss, but if you have the rates it will accumulate.

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euro has 2-3 inches of snow for saturday for the city and north 

sunday shows a graze better but still not there. euro will inch west and than make a big move. I don't think the west trend is done on gfs and the other models. The storm will trend stronger and more amped therefore it'll bring more moisture westerly in my opinion!

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44 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro has 2-3 inches of snow for saturday for the city and north 

sunday shows a graze better but still not there. euro will inch west and than make a big move. I don't think the west trend is done on gfs and the other models. The storm will trend stronger and more amped therefore it'll bring more moisture westerly in my opinion!

You really need to stop this. Stop with the wishcasting and false information/lies. It’s not fair to the members who don’t have access to the models and come on here to get correct info. The EURO is NOT showing 2-3 inches in NYC on Saturday, it barely has over an inch and that’s at 10:1 ratios….the ratios on Saturday are going to be lower than 10:1

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You really need to stop this. Stop with the wishcasting and false information/lies. It’s not fair to the members who don’t have access to the models and come on here to get correct info. The EURO is NOT showing 2-3 inches in NYC on Saturday, it barely has over an inch and that’s at 10:1 ratios….the ratios on Saturday are going to be lower than 10:1

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

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Notable trends west overnight. Euro OP still says no but should it cave west, will bring snow to the city. AI models holding strong. Wouldn't write anything off yet for those east of I-287 and US 202. 

Let's see how things evolve

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  • Rjay changed the title to Storm potential January 17th-18th
  • WeatherGeek2025 changed the title to Storm potential January 17th-18th

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