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Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026


BooneWX
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15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s like… we’ve seen this before. Total collapse of rain chances today from what looked like an area wide soaker to nothing. Now the weekend is questionable especially in the triad 

It seems like everything is being pushed south all of a sudden with the high pressure coming in stouter. You'd know north trend in the winter and south trend in the spring.

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31 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

It seems like everything is being pushed south all of a sudden with the high pressure coming in stouter. You'd know north trend in the winter and south trend in the spring.

Sorry NC, I washed my truck and tuned up the motorcycle, hence the rain shifting south.  I will try and do some garden work were the rain would help out and restart the drought down here so y'all have a better chance at rain.

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s funny, we were told last weekends rain was the appetizer now it + those who saw rain yesterday might be the entire “wet” period…

I'm grateful to have received a little over an inch the past 3 or 4 days. It has helped the top of the ground some but the rivers and streams didn't budge and they are talking about water restrictions coming along the Catawba River basin this summer if things don't change quickly. They are already asking people to conserve voluntarily. 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I guess the rain this morning disappearing might result in less stabilization of the atmosphere and more opportunity for storms this evening. Recent hi res modeling has been trending higher with storm coverage in areas that missed today’s morning rain 

Idk about elsewhere but CLT has had heavy cloud cover all day, dont think the environment will be great here but I guess we will see what turns up.

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Extreme drought exploded in NC this week. Exceptional drought has developed east of Charlotte:

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NC
 

Hopefully this is the peak 

 

 I believe that there’s notable reporting lag. I don’t mean just that the map is as of 8AM of two days ago (4/28). 

 Note that not a single area of the SE got better on the map released today vs the map released one week ago (in addition to many areas getting worse). See the maps below. I don’t see how that’s reflecting reality. 

 Based on looking at rainfall reports across the SE for prior to 8AM on Tue there was moderate to heavy rainfall in portions of especially N AL to S NC during the several days prior to April 28th. Despite that, some of those counties actually got worse vs the map as of the prior weekly map. I believe that due to the time needed to gather reports that there’s reporting lag of perhaps a few days. In other words, these maps as of Tue at 8AM are in reality probably reflecting closer to, say, an average of 8AM on Saturday or whatever. Tue at 8AM is just the deadline to get reports in so they have time to compile the map for the Thu AM release. In reality, there’d be reports coming in  before Tue…say on a Saturday for example. And then that Sat submission could have been based on a Fri or Thu observation.

  Map released one week ago:

IMG_0307.thumb.png.59364c64f3798998a3dd0d82db1a99b7.png
 

Map released today: no improvement anywhere and worse in many spots: not realistic imho…example much of my county got nearly 1” of rain on Sunday (heaviest since March 6th), well before Tue 8AM deadline for submission, and yet my county got a worse designation!
IMG_0306.thumb.png.6a440613a797a7d3fdf0aeaee7e5e019.png

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Extreme Drought % (SE Region):

VA - 8.07%

AL - 47.93%

NC - 54.87%

FL - 78.51%

SC - 79.03%

GA - 80.72%

Extreme drought grew significantly in North Carolina and South Carolina. Georgia continues to have some of the worst drought in the region, with fires growing in the southern counties. While we have received a few days of overnight rainfall now, it will be difficult for 1-2 inches of rain to overcome 3 months of drought. My area in Atlanta has received 1.75" of rain in the last 3 days, with hopefully more coming Friday overnight into Saturday. I do expect some improvement in next week's map.

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14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Map released today: no improvement anywhere and worse in many spots: not realistic imho…example much of my county got nearly 1” of rain on Sunday (heaviest since March 6th), well before Tue 8AM deadline for submission, and yet my county got a worse designation!

My theory for this is that it's hard for 1" of rain to be enough to drop a county a whole category when much of the state has been in some form of drought for 3+ months... FFC mentioned in their discussion today that even the 1-2" in store for central GA Saturday will not "put much of a dent in the drought." I think we will need at least multiple days/weeks of good sustained rainfall to improve by enough to drop a category. This image posted on FFC's Twitter I think does a nice job explaining... we would need over 10" in a month to get back to near-normal. Regardless, I do expect some improvement in next week's update.

Graphic showing the water year rainfall deficits and how much rain would be needed in 1, 3, and 6months time to get back within 5 inches of normal for the water year.

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