Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[olafminesaw]

AI GEFS

[Coach McGuirk]

GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Southeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

[Brick Tamland]

NAM is coming in further west.

[SnowDawg]

https://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/models/?model=era5&base=500relvort&background=plain&state=states_brown&country=countries_brown&proj=conus&archive=false&run=2021012700
 

This site has a reanalysis of the 2014 storm talked about, and many others if anyone is interested. Menus take a minute to figure out but a lot of great storms to look at on there.

[Coach McGuirk]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM is coming in further west.

The NAM has fucked me over way too many times to be relied in the long range. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

Remarkable where we stand now vs 24 hrs ago

[olafminesaw]

19 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM is coming in further west.

Hard to take it seriously, it's holding the trough way back in Texas while the rest of guidance has it over the central gulf coast

[cbmclean]

26 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

The NAM has fucked me over way too many times to be relied in the long range. 

The only thing I trust about the NAM is when it shows a warm nose.

[Brick Tamland]

End of the NAM.

 

https://i.ibb.co/JRSkbDg1/ref1km-ptype-conus.png

[SnowDawg]

Well, NAM was way way different than the 18z GFS at the same hour. It’s the 84 hour nam though so who knows what that means really.

[olafminesaw]

RGEM and ICON start the party off significantly more amped than 18z

[BornAgain13]

0z ICON with a big jump west 

[BornAgain13]

0z Rgem with a great look at the end of its run. Orientation of the trough looked really good

[NorthHillsWx]

0z RGEM is very warm east and south of 85

[olafminesaw]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

0z RGEM is very warm east and south of 85

It brings the arctic front in late, Eric Webb had mentioned this is a concern for East/central NC. I also noticed it is developing moisture much later/further north (in addition to bringing more moisture West/inland)

[Brick Tamland]

RGEM looked good for Wake and points west in NC.

 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS is running.