Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[suzook]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z EPS for SAV has gotten my attention for the small chance of Sun AM light snow/flurries, which in this area would be a big deal due to the relative rarity being that most winters get nothing, not even a T. We got nothing Feb 2018 through Dec 2024.
 

 My expectations, especially for measurable, are low due to climo, it being pretty dry overall with member qpf progs being light, and marginal temps.

So, fwiw, here are some 12Z EPS images: ~25% of members have snow, which is notably high:

 

Mean: 0.2”, notable for here:

As much as I would like to believe this, it's been dry as f here. Every precip chance just fizzles out. I'm just thinking it will be dry

[Coach McGuirk]

Late January looks interesting. 

[Jimbo!]

I see potential near 24-26 and I’d bet it does a rare s trend. My surgery on the 14th got rescheduled til the 26th cause surgeon was sick.


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[BornAgain13]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Funny you say that: the NBM’s footprint is further west tonight than some of the snowier OPs we saw at 18z. It would favor Delmarva southwest through the Virginia/NC piedmonts into western NC.

U have a map of the NBM?

[GaWx]

From Don Sutherland:

Yes, the PNA is far more important to Atlanta's January snowstorms than the NAO. Since 1950, the PNA was positive for 84.2% of Atlanta's 1" or greater snowstorms. The NAO was negative for 63.2% of such storms.

 I’ll add that that these Jan snowstorms were during La Niña:

Dates……PNA…….NAO

1/15-17/1965…+1.191…+0.438

1/6-8/1996…+0.289…-0.640

1/19/2008…+0.430…+0.287

1/9-10/2011…-0.223…-0.524

1/16-17/2018…+0.101…+1.430

1/10/2025…+1.105…-1.208

 

 So, just for the six 1”+ Jan storms during La Nina:

-5 of the 6 PNAs were >0 and the lowest was only down to -0.223. Avg PNA was +0.5

-In contrast, 3 of the 6 NAOs were positive with one of them strongly positive. The avg NAO was near 0/neutral.

—————

 The 1/18/26 potential SE snowstorm looks like it will be during a moderate MJO phase 6, a strong +PNA, a neutral to moderately -AO, slightly + to neutral NAO, -WPO, and a very strong -EPO, which may be sub -3 then.

 So, the highlight is strong +PNA/-EPO during a phase 6.

[BooneWX]

U have a map of the NBM?

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[Daniel Boone]

55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

From Don Sutherland:

Yes, the PNA is far more important to Atlanta's January snowstorms than the NAO. Since 1950, the PNA was positive for 84.2% of Atlanta's 1" or greater snowstorms. The NAO was negative for 63.2% of such storms.

 I’ll add that that these Jan snowstorms were during La Niña:

Dates……PNA…….NAO

1/15-17/1965…+1.191…+0.438

1/6-8/1996…+0.289…-0.640

1/19/2008…+0.430…+0.287

1/9-10/2011…-0.223…-0.524

1/16-17/2018…+0.101…+1.430

1/10/2025…+1.105…-1.208

 

 So, just for the six 1”+ Jan storms during La Nina:

-5 of the 6 PNAs were >0 and the lowest was only down to -0.223. Avg PNA was +0.5

-In contrast, 3 of the 6 NAOs were positive with one of them strongly positive. The avg NAO was near 0/neutral.

—————

 The 1/18/26 potential SE snowstorm looks like it will be during a moderate MJO phase 6, a strong +PNA, a neutral to moderately -AO, slightly + to neutral NAO, -WPO, and a very strong -EPO, which may be sub -3 then.

 So, the highlight is strong +PNA/-EPO during a phase 6.

Just looking at MJO Charts one would expect a mild Pattern in the East. Goes to show other Drivers sometimes dictate or throw the MJO effects off kilter. Even the location of La nina apparently according to some research. 

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

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It's a blend of the Model's as most know as it's pretty obvious. I don't know how many are used or which one's to come up with the Average of them all. It's been awhile since I was told by the NWS . They just explained it and said it's the one they use.

I don't think any Model's are given more weight than the others. If the better Model is showing 10" for a given area while 2 of the worst are showing zilch, the printout is going to be very low and may be way off.

   So, it's overall a good Idea Model. You get the average of the Consensus so to speak but, it can sometimes be way off because of what I mentioned above. 

[GaWx]

19 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Just looking at MJO Charts one would expect a mild Pattern in the East. Goes to show other Drivers sometimes dictate or throw the MJO effects off kilter. Even the location of La nina apparently according to some research. 

 Actually, I did a study recently that surprisingly showed that Jan phase 6 in the SE (using GSP as a representative) has had a mix with a bit more cold vs warm phase 6 Jan periods. Examples of cold during La Niña in Jan:

1975 (8 BN), 1976 (9 BN during a long period of 13 days), 2000 (4 BN), 2011 (7 BN during a long period of 12 days), 2022 (9 BN), and 2025 (5 BN). 
 
 There were some mild Jan phase 6 periods during La Niña also like 1989 (+8) and 2008 (+8) although those two were only 3 days long each.

Keep in mind though that the current phase 6 started off mild. So, it remains to be seen how cold it will end up overall as it’s progged to last through ~Jan 21st.

 

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Actually, I did a study recently that surprisingly showed that Jan phase 6 in the SE (using GSP as a representative) has had a mix with a bit more cold vs warm phase 6 Jan periods. Examples of cold during La Niña in Jan:

1975 (8 BN), 1976 (9 BN during a long period of 13 days), 2000 (4 BN), 2011 (7 BN during a long period of 12 days), 2022 (9 BN), and 2025 (5 BN). 
 
 There were some mild Jan phase 6 periods during La Niña also like 1989 (+8) and 2008 (+8) although those two were only 3 days long each.

Yes. That's what I was referring to irt research. I'd saw a thing or two on where you had did that. Was that dependant on La nina location Larry ? Im thinking that is what was batted around as the possible reason.

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Yes. That's what I was referring to irt research. I'd saw a thing or two on where you had did that. Was that dependant on La nina location Larry ?

I didn’t break it down by La Niña location.

[CaryWx]

0z gfs bringing some goods

[Daniel Boone]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I didn’t break it down by La Niña location.

Can you research that and see if there's a connection ?

[SnowDawg]

I swear…. I am not emotionally mature enough to handle it snowing in deep south GA for a 2nd year in a row while I get nothing. Please save me NW trend lol.

[gamecockinupstateSC]

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Can you research that and see if there's a connection ?

I don’t think I can because I don’t have a list of La Niña by location. If you can provide that, I can break it down.

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I don’t think I can because I don’t have a list of La Niña by location. If you can provide that, I can break it down.

Ok. If we can find whether it was east west or basin wide those cold Year's. 

[Daniel Boone]

From what I can tell, they were predominantly East based Larry ,Just running off memory. Maybe you can find more clarity on that. Also, blocking looks to of been in place. I remember the long cold stretch in 2011 well. Incidentally, as I'm sure you know, that was a fairly strong Nina. Strong Blocking that Winter. 

[GaWx]

 The 0Z GFS is giving >1” of snow to this area on Jan 18th, which would be the second straight Jan with measurable snow. That’s never happened since official records started 150 years ago. The closest thing to that would be Jan of 1921’s 0.5” and Jan of 1922’s major icestorm. And then the glorious Jan of 1977 had two.

 Climo always says bet against measurable wintry precip here as no more than 25% of winters have had that. 

 OTOH, there has been increased ensemble support.

But OTOH, there’s the typical NW trend when there’s no -NAO, which would work against it.
 

 So, keeping all of that in mind, I’m taking this with a grain (2m temps are also progged to be marginal as of now with 34-35 being the coldest):

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS has had a large increase:

[wncsnow]

If I were in Raleigh up to Virginia Beach, I would be getting excited

[GaWx]

31 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

If I were in Raleigh up to Virginia Beach, I would be getting excited

Actually, with the typical NW trend, which is in reality an unwinding of too far SE biases, you’re very much in this one. I think due to this and backed by climo, you have a better chance than us peeps way down in the Deep South of getting some of this. One never knows since every case is different, which makes forecasting discussions so interesting.

 Why is it so quiet in here? It’s not quiet at the other place. I guess most everyone here is sleeping? Or is almost everyone over there?

[Jimbo!]

Actually, with the typical NW trend, which is in reality an unwinding of too far SE biases, you’re very much in this one. I think due to this and backed by climo, you have a better chance than us peeps way down in the Deep South of getting some of this. One never knows since every case is different, which makes forecasting discussions so interesting.
 Why is it so quiet in here? It’s not quiet at the other place. I guess most everyone here is sleeping? Or is almost everyone over there?

Wide awake here in Danville sadly. Sleep is at a premium with this dang herniated disc and multiple pinched nerves, so I’m watching this closely. Been a hot minute since down here in Va that we got more than a dusting.


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[NorthHillsWx]

GFS, EURO, UKIE all onboard for Sunday. GEFS is honestly a thing of beauty at this range. CMC is too flat and too warm. I think right now if you’re east of I-85 you’re solidly in the game on Sunday. While north trends will occur and we’re seeing that it will be interesting to see how far north it can go given this is mostly NS energy rather than a big phase with southern stream. That being said, you have to like where the triangle is at this juncture. Epic trends across the best modeling overnight 

[NorthHillsWx]

Could @GaWx score two years straight??? For all the work put in here, you deserve it. You have to be at least somewhat excited with both the GFS and Euro onboard for SE GA and a GEFS snow mean of around an inch not far away which in itself is crazy that far south 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro is sticking with the coastal regions of SE for heaviest but extends to RDU:

 

0Z EPS mean has sig. increase: RDU near the max with 0.6”:

I count 18 with something in my area (largest I counted before was 13 on 12Z) and ~25 in RDU out of 50:

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

UKIE is a bomb but much much warmer. It solves the precip problem but thermals are sketchy all the way to I-85. Given recent days of modeling I’ll take the look especially a juiced up solution

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

0Z Euro is sticking with the coastal regions of SE for heaviest but extends to RDU:

Being I’ll be in Morehead City this weekend for a family event this would be acceptable, but I’m always pulling for the triangle and my backyard. I really like being in the center of both GEFS and EPS means at this range for the triangle crowd. We’re in that 5-day range now so there is a lot of time for unhappy trends still but this isn’t a bad spot to be 

[Coach McGuirk]

Interesting, hopefully a coastal low will form. 

[Jmoon]

6 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Interesting, hopefully a coastal low will form. 

Your going to get another snow most likely.