Mid-Long Range Discussion 2026

[suzook]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 12Z EPS for SAV has gotten my attention for the small chance of Sun AM light snow/flurries, which in this area would be a big deal due to the relative rarity being that most winters get nothing, not even a T. We got nothing Feb 2018 through Dec 2024.
 

 My expectations, especially for measurable, are low due to climo, it being pretty dry overall with member qpf progs being light, and marginal temps.

So, fwiw, here are some 12Z EPS images: ~25% of members have snow, which is notably high:

 

Mean: 0.2”, notable for here:

As much as I would like to believe this, it's been dry as f here. Every precip chance just fizzles out. I'm just thinking it will be dry

[Coach McGuirk]

Late January looks interesting. 

[Jimbo!]

I see potential near 24-26 and I’d bet it does a rare s trend. My surgery on the 14th got rescheduled til the 26th cause surgeon was sick.


.

[BornAgain13]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

Funny you say that: the NBM’s footprint is further west tonight than some of the snowier OPs we saw at 18z. It would favor Delmarva southwest through the Virginia/NC piedmonts into western NC.

U have a map of the NBM?

[GaWx]

From Don Sutherland:

Yes, the PNA is far more important to Atlanta's January snowstorms than the NAO. Since 1950, the PNA was positive for 84.2% of Atlanta's 1" or greater snowstorms. The NAO was negative for 63.2% of such storms.

 I’ll add that that these Jan snowstorms were during La Niña:

Dates……PNA…….NAO

1/15-17/1965…+1.191…+0.438

1/6-8/1996…+0.289…-0.640

1/19/2008…+0.430…+0.287

1/9-10/2011…-0.223…-0.524

1/16-17/2018…+0.101…+1.430

1/10/2025…+1.105…-1.208

 

 So, just for the six 1”+ Jan storms during La Nina:

-5 of the 6 PNAs were >0 and the lowest was only down to -0.223. Avg PNA was +0.5

-In contrast, 3 of the 6 NAOs were positive with one of them strongly positive. The avg NAO was near 0/neutral.

—————

 The 1/18/26 potential SE snowstorm looks like it will be during a moderate MJO phase 6, a strong +PNA, a neutral to moderately -AO, slightly + to neutral NAO, -WPO, and a very strong -EPO, which may be sub -3 then.

 So, the highlight is strong +PNA/-EPO during a phase 6.