January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[87storms]

1 hour ago, TowsonWeather said:

DC got literally 100% more precip than the 3K NAM said it would get in a run quite literally the day the storm started, lol 

It had us dry slotting and the main vector of precip well to our north throughout much of today. 

If anyone’s takeaway from this storm is that we should pay more attention to the NAM because the non-crappy models got the changeover to sleet wrong by 2-3 hours, well….lol

I would say that getting thermals right is pretty important

[Nomz]

Good god (DC point and click)

 

[AlexD1990]

Can we maybe keep the postmortem about this storm out of the medium and long range thread please? 

 

Also, maybe we should move over to the February threads since February is now the medium to long range. .

[NorthArlington101]

ICON got closer but is wayyy too positively tilted for now. But closer.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Another chance to walk under the umbrella!

He's never living that down

[Ji]

ICON got closer but is wayyy too positively tilted for now. But closer.

That’s pretty darn close. Did you see it’s 12z run lol

[Ji]

He's never living that down

Take him to tug hill like that you probably won’t see him again.

[dukeblue219]

46 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Good god (DC point and click)

 

Thursday just straight up froze out of existence?

[bncho]

I think 0z GFS looks better at h5 than 18z but I'm not sure. (thru 84)

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said:

Thursday just straight up froze out of existence?

ah fuck. yeah it did, don't get out of bed thursday.

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Take him to tug hill like that you probably won’t see him again.

He won't go.  Already tried that.

I envy him.  He's normie. No care in the world about the weather.  Must be nice.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

He won't go.  Already tried that.

I envy him.  He's normie. No care in the world about the weather.  Must be nice.

Who is that anyway?

[winter_warlock]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

That’s pretty darn close. Did you see it’s 12z run lol

I like that where it is  for 7 days out!! 

[stormtracker]

Ok, loaded up the GFS...so far at 105 it's comparatively like the EURO with some small differences at H5

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Who is that anyway?

Huh? Pay attention Maestro!  Bf.

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ok, loaded up the GFS...so far at 105 it's comparatively like the EURO with some small differences at H5

Take us home for PBP, and take that umbrella out of your BF's hand.

[stormtracker]

GFS

[winter_warlock]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

He's never living that down

I don't think I've ever  used an umbrella in a good winter storm...  Maybe if it's just a total rain or ZR storm but never for snow and sleet.  Cant enjoy it with an umbrella .. but that's just me

[stormtracker]

Differences start at 120

 

[stormtracker]

Prob not gonna do it..but we do get a lil refresher maybe

[stormtracker]

It's not going to do it and that precip kind dries out in the next panel.  Oh well.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Prob not gonna do it..but we do get a lil refresher maybe

I see that off the coast though.. We can. Work with that. Got plenty of time

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Prob not gonna do it..but we do get a lil refresher maybe

Decisive steps in the right direction the past 2 GFS runs. 

[AlexD1990]

looks like GFS just doesnt dig it enough. maybe some fluff as the 500mb low passes by?

[stormtracker]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

I see that off the coast thought. We can. Work with that. Got plenty of time

Trof just too progressive this run.  Interesting nonetheless.   Like you said..we got time

[stormtracker]

Just now, Cobalt said:

Decisive steps in the right direction the past 2 GFS runs. 

Yes

[stormtracker]

Trying, but gonna be too late

[Nomz]

Definitely something there. Got time to reel it in. 

[bncho]

much better, 

[Nomz]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Trying, but gonna be too late

yeah looks like more of a NE event if anything.