TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Ji said: We don’t get these h5 looks very much. It would shameful to waste another one Probably all know how this all ends. With us getting pretty much nothing over the next 2 weeks. Hopefully we cash in but I’m sure we will get just toyed with. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, mitchnick said: Take a look at our NWS forecast for tomorrow. Ya might catch a squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I just don't think the larger scale features are in place.. temps are too warm/borderline. I would go with mostly rain, 1-3" snow upside. +EPOs in the medium range Ive seen so many times are underestimated, the surface warm air. The trend goes more cutoff, probably mid 30s or a degree or two above freezing. Without more northern stream interaction the low doesn't bomb as much. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario It just doesn’t have that SW energy like gfs that digs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Storm 2 a fail on Gfs. Canadian might have a shot at something better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I really doubt that surface low ends up being where it is considering it forms over central NC and not over the usual coastal boundary interaction. Verbatim is an interesting snow mapA secondary mamxima on the Delmarva with a min just se of i95 is definitely a weird outcome Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Storm 2 a fail on Gfs. Canadian might have a shot at something better. Now see...I get storm 1 failing--it's messy. But c'mon man I hope we can get something off off storm 2. If we get zilch from both, that will be annoying even with lowered expectations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Canadian...meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GEFS h5 looks pretty nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Makes sense storm 2 would have a chance if missed phase from storm 190 perfect chance psu worst case scenario plays out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Canadian...mehThis winter is becoming worse than 01-02 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: GEFS h5 looks pretty nice Ya finally starting to look more like op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Ji said: This winter is becoming worse than 01-02 If we did another 01/02 up here, we'd get nothing the rest of the year. I don't think that happens up here, but who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 If we did another 01/02 up here, we'd get nothing the rest of the year. I don't think that happens up here, but who knows. You really want to rely on Nina February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Nice mean. Down here I think I'd want to root for a low that doesn't quite develop overhead or to my west like the op shows Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Ji said: You really want to rely on Nina February? A couple weeks ago I woulda spit at that idea. But this time around I'm wondering if we have a chance with the MJO in a favorable phase as well as a -AO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 There's a snowhole I know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 A couple weeks ago I woulda spit at that idea. But this time around I'm wondering if we have a chance with the MJO in a favorable phase as well as a -AO...What did phase 8 get you last time ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, baltosquid said: There's a snowhole I know Ew lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Ji said: You really want to rely on Nina February? It's January 10th, so I don't need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ukmet lol love seeing 988 lows over NJ coast with no precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 UKIE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Ji said: What did phase 8 get you last time ? Nothing is ever guaranteed. I'm just saying I don't know if it'll be the usual Nina February monster SE ridge--because with that you have ZERO chance. Better to have A chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, baltosquid said: UKIE.... Bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 You tellin' me this isn't doing shit for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ukie is close, but finds a way out with little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, mitchnick said: Ukie is close, but finds a way out with little to nothing. Pukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Still, marked improvement at h5 for UKIE, we take for now. It agrees with the GFS on that front... just struggling to get anything to happen at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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