January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

We don’t get these h5 looks very much. It would shameful to waste another one

Probably all know how this all ends. With us getting pretty much nothing over the next 2 weeks. Hopefully we cash in but I’m sure we will get just toyed with. 

[Terpeast]

Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Take a look at our NWS forecast for tomorrow. 

Ya might catch a squall. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I just don't think the larger scale features are in place.. temps are too warm/borderline. I would go with mostly rain, 1-3" snow upside. +EPOs in the medium range Ive seen so many times are underestimated, the surface warm air. The trend goes more cutoff, probably mid 30s or a degree or two above freezing. Without more northern stream interaction the low doesn't bomb as much. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Cmc is a missed/failed phase. Plausible scenario

It just doesn’t have that SW energy like gfs that digs in. 

[mitchnick]

Storm 2 a fail on Gfs. Canadian might have a shot at something better.

[AlexD1990]

I really doubt that surface low ends up being where it is considering it forms over central NC and not over the usual coastal boundary interaction. Verbatim is an interesting snow map

A secondary mamxima on the Delmarva with a min just se of i95 is definitely a weird outcome

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[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Storm 2 a fail on Gfs. Canadian might have a shot at something better.

Now see...I get storm 1 failing--it's messy. But c'mon man I hope we can get something off off storm 2. If we get zilch from both, that will be annoying even with lowered expectations!

[mitchnick]

Canadian...meh

[baltosquid]

GEFS h5 looks pretty nice

[Ji]

Makes sense storm 2 would have a chance if missed phase from storm 1

90 perfect chance psu worst case scenario plays out

[Ji]

Canadian...meh

This winter is becoming worse than 01-02

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

GEFS h5 looks pretty nice

Ya finally starting to look more like op 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

This winter is becoming worse than 01-02

If we did another 01/02 up here, we'd get nothing the rest of the year. I don't think that happens up here, but who knows. 

[baltosquid]

[Ji]

If we did another 01/02 up here, we'd get nothing the rest of the year. I don't think that happens up here, but who knows. 

You really want to rely on Nina February?

[AlexD1990]

Nice mean. Down here I think I'd want to root for a low that doesn't quite develop overhead or to my west like the op shows

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[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

You really want to rely on Nina February?

A couple weeks ago I woulda spit at that idea. But this time around I'm wondering if we have a chance with the MJO in a favorable phase as well as a -AO...

[baltosquid]

There's a snowhole I know

[Ji]

A couple weeks ago I woulda spit at that idea. But this time around I'm wondering if we have a chance with the MJO in a favorable phase as well as a -AO...

What did phase 8 get you last time ?

[87storms]

Just now, baltosquid said:

There's a snowhole I know

Ew lol

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

You really want to rely on Nina February?

It's January 10th, so I don't need to.

[TSSN+]

Ukmet lol

love seeing 988 lows over NJ coast  with no precip. 
 

 

[baltosquid]

UKIE....

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

What did phase 8 get you last time ?

Nothing is ever guaranteed. I'm just saying I don't know if it'll be the usual Nina February monster SE ridge--because with that you have ZERO chance. Better to have A chance 

[TSSN+]

Just now, baltosquid said:

UKIE....

Bone dry 

[baltosquid]

You tellin' me this isn't doing shit for us?

[mitchnick]

Ukie is close, but finds a way out with little to nothing. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Ukie is close, but finds a way out with little to nothing. 

Pukie 

[baltosquid]

Still, marked improvement at h5 for UKIE, we take for now. It agrees with the GFS on that front... just struggling to get anything to happen at the surface.