January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Both the 12zGFS(and runs prior) and 0z Euro are flirting with breaking all-time record lows.  I gotta think w/ that type of cold on modeling....we see 2-3-4 more chances before winter is up.  I think this is the start of the pattern and not end of it.

[nrgjeff]

This would be a huge problem across the entire Eastern Interconnect. Temps go all the way to the Coast from NYC to New England.

GFS (not shown) has a gem of a Miller A very end of January. 

[Carvers Gap]

@Matthew70, I am reminded that you consistently said not to cancel winter.  Just a little thank you card from me.

[John1122]

When viewing snow maps from more than 12 hours out, see my avatar for guidance.

[tnweathernut]

Does anyone want to hear the 12z Euro is trying to snow on the gulf and Florida beaches again at day 9?  It's going to nail this at day 9, isn't it?  lol

[Bigbald]

22 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Does anyone want to hear the 12z Euro is trying to snow on the gulf and Florida beaches again at day 9?  It's going to nail this at day 9, isn't it?  lol

Thats exactly where we need it to be!

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Matthew70, I am reminded that you consistently said not to cancel winter.  Just a little thank you card from me.

@Carvers GapThank You!  I know yesterday I got under a few skins.  I honestly when I made the comment about Bam winning the lottery.  I was just making fun of him.  It was poor judgment & for that I apologize.  It’s nice to have a forum like this that everyone looks past our slip ups. I would never not cheer on everyone to get snow.  Snow is magical!  As I have gotten older I try to always remember we don’t know what that individual is going thru on the other end.  I try to always these days show grace.  I appreciate you & many others  very much in this forum. I appreciate this forum helping others learn & keeping us updated. We look to have chances at the best possible time to score snow. 

[nrgjeff]

It needs to cut like the 12Z GFS.

51 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Does anyone want to hear the 12z Euro is trying to snow on the gulf and Florida beaches again at day 9?  It's going to nail this at day 9, isn't it?  lol

Hammers Chatty all snow Day whatever that is.

[Matthew70]

51 minutes ago, John1122 said:

When viewing snow maps from more than 12 hours out, see my avatar for guidance.

I do love the new avatar.  Definitely makes me laugh. 

[Matthew70]

52 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Does anyone want to hear the 12z Euro is trying to snow on the gulf and Florida beaches again at day 9?  It's going to nail this at day 9, isn't it?  lol

They can have snow as long as we get snow also.  Sharing is caring right?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Guess it's time to go back to tropical convection and strat observing.

SOI dropped today for the first time in a long time. Sometimes you'll see people talk about SOI drops and storms with a lot of precip. across the southern tier of the US, but the current one managed it with a pretty positive Nina like SOI for the past month. 

 

Anyway:

 

 

Split at 10mb:

 

 

GFS has it too:

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

@Carvers GapThank You!  I know yesterday I got under a few skins.  I honestly when I made the comment about Bam winning the lottery.  I was just making fun of him.  It was poor judgment & for that I apologize.  It’s nice to have a forum like this that everyone looks past our slip ups. I would never not cheer on everyone to get snow.  Snow is magical!  As I have gotten older I try to always remember we don’t know what that individual is going thru on the other end.  I try to always these days show grace.  I appreciate you & many others  very much in this forum. I appreciate this forum helping others learn & keeping us updated. We look to have chances at the best possible time to score snow. 

Nah. Nobody is worried about it.  You are one of us, man.  Get in there and sling it.  Just be yourself.  You aren't saying anything that the rest of us aren't thinking!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

Globals are not warm for next Thursday.  I agree w/ @tnweathernut and others that this is a time to watch.  It is very rare to get that type of cold without precip on the front edge of that type of front.  It happens, but about 90% of the time there is high ratio stuff when this rolls in.  Real feels. Again, with some snow under that...some locals may make a run at record lows which I thought were pretty safe.  The GEM is the "warm model."  Now let that sink in.

 

[Jed33]

When the Canadian is the warmest model-uh oh!

[WintryMixmaster]

GFS: "Sorry I got your hopes up this weekend"
Also the GFS: "HEY LOOK OVER HERE!"

[Wurbus]

4 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

GFS: "Sorry I got your hopes up this weekend"
Also the GFS: "HEY LOOK OVER HERE!"

It does a weird Fujiwhara effect with the northern energy before combining and reaching up the coast. Interesting run to day the least.

[WintryMixmaster]

Just now, Wurbus said:

It does a weird Fujiwhara effect with the northern energy before combining and reaching up the coast. Interesting run to day the least.

Oh yeah I don't buy it for a second lol but the Euro did have a similar setup, just looked like maybe a little too much separation to pull off the phase (wouldn't that be a slap in the face after this weekend's storm?). I think the 00z Euro last night had it too

[John1122]

The GFS has a .0001 percent chance to verify, but it looks like the most epic 46 day weeklies run you can imagine but over 15 days roughly. 

[Scottie16]

Looks to me like Tirol arrive earlier than forecasted.


.

[Scottie16]

Looks to me like Tirol arrive earlier than forecasted.


.

It’ll


.

[John1122]

Now the GFS gives southern Louisiana across Mobile, and all of the Florida panhandle 8-12 inches of snow with 0 warm nose issues 150 miles north of the low. Yet here we see 850s shoot to 50 degrees with a low 1000 miles south of us. It finishes off with a band of ocean effect snow that sends 2-4 inches from Tampa Bay down towards south Central Florida.

While this clearly shows that the GFS probably needs to be decommissioned and a new model launched in its place, I wouldn't be shocked if it came true.

[Wurbus]

Nice weenie run on the GFS next weekend. SE gets CRUSHED!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

My God the 12z GFS is so beautiful if only it wasn’t the GFS and was 72 hours out instead of 210. 

[Wurbus]

Canadian and AIGFS has it as well, although more suppressed and misses TN (more likely outcome given our luck)

[Vol4Life]

8 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Nice weenie run on the GFS next weekend. SE gets CRUSHED!

I was just coming to this thread to post the same thing.  That’s a perfect storm track

[nrgjeff]

GFS is consistent with another storm signal in a week. One run warm nosed - apparently always a possibility. The rest are all snow. Euro will find it again.

Random cold air thoughts. Being from the Plains we ALWAYS locked in shallow cold harder than models. I tried that a few times in East Tenn. Learned real quick I'm not in Kansas anymore. Warm nose wins in the Great Valley. Then east of the Apps right back to cold wins, bigly CAD right up there with Denver. Amazing.

[tnweathernut]

Just now, nrgjeff said:

GFS is consistent with another storm signal in a week. One run warm nosed - apparently always a possibility. The rest are all snow. Euro will find it again.

Random cold air thoughts. Being from the Plains we ALWAYS locked it in harder than models. I tried that a few times in East Tenn. Learned real quick I'm not in Kansas anymore. Warm nose wins in the Great Valley. Then east of the Apps right back to cold wins. Amazing.

Sunscreen kidding aside, we have a former NWS guy at our church.  Long retired.   He told me 15 years ago this area was probably one of the most difficult areas to forecast in North America.

[nrgjeff]

It is harder than the Plains; and, that's a high bar.

When someone in the Northeast says they got it hard I laugh in their face. Y'all been looking at it for 3-4 days inside the US! Models got it onshore those same days ahead. I will concede the coastal front is hard - and has crushed many a snow lover hearts.