January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah towards or into next weekend

One of the camps of models is going to be wrong.  Way wrong at that.  Will the MJO  win or the models win?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro for this weekend for primarily eastern areas:

 

[1234snow]

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah I just put it in Banter. That is some DGEX level stuff. True weenie dreams. 

[housemtnTN]

4 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

Oh wow hahaha that is absolutely wild.

[Matthew70]

11 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

Looks like the battle line is I40.  As always.

[Matthew70]

The GFS is off it’s meds.

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

35" for Indy, 40" at Columbus, and 50" at Pittsburgh. Lol

[*Flash*]

PSA Reminder: All models are wrong, some are...that's right...useful. Even clown maps can be beneficial in signaling a storm or pattern's ceiling, laugh at them we may. Sometimes, we just got to zoom out and appreciate we're smack-dab in the best 7-month stretch of the year (10/1-4/30). Plus, we're looking at net positive trends approaching peak winter climo. That should keep our forum hopefully optimistic the next few weeks, barring anything unforeseen. 

[Matthew70]

If the -AO is for real that’s being shown.  The MJO may have no say so in the matter. One thing even the wx office here in Nashville has said in the past.  “A -AO almost always means it’s going to get really cold here.”  So we have a -EPO -NAO -AO.  That’s a heck of a trio for us to have. 

[Reb]

RGEM is cooking up something sweet 

[Carvers Gap]

48 minutes ago, Reb said:

RGEM is cooking up something sweet 

No kidding.  Nice look.

[John1122]

The GEM followed the RGEM but is even more robust.

[Carvers Gap]

So what is the difference between the GFS and GEM at that time frame?  Did the GFS hold something back?  The GEM looks remarkably like the GFS solutions from a few days ago...tropical system and all.

[Reb]

GFS trending in the right direction.
 

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So what is the difference between the GFS and GEM at that time frame?  Did the GFS hold something back?  The GEM looks remarkably like the GFS solutions from a few days ago...tropical system and all.

The GEM drops the energy in a couple hundred miles west of the GFS it looks like. Further east, no go, further west, better for us.

[John1122]

The UKIE and GGEM are similar with their precip footprint this weekend but the UKIE is very warm and it rains even though it's overnight and 850s are like -3c.

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The UKIE and GGEM are similar with their precip footprint this weekend but the UKIE is very warm and it rains even though it's overnight and 850s are like -3c.

Hopefully Canadian Suite is correct. Thermal flawed with Ukie that run. 

[John1122]

Depressing Euro run, if looking for snow. Rgem keeps it's decent snowfall set up. The Euro AI had some hope. The 06z gfs wasn't great for most of the forum.

It's crazy to me that we see the looks at 500 that have been popping up and we are struggling to find modeled snow events. These looks would be productive throughout most of our climate history. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

51 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 06z gfs wasn't great for most of the forum.

Take heart John, 6z GFS gives Dirty Myrtle 4.4" !!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But......

several GEFS and EPS members imply a potential NW trend, just maybe not enough for anyone in east TN:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We need to hope for something like 6z GEFS member 13 and then a last minute NW trend.

**Please note what I'm looking at is beyond what the RGEM is showing for Saturday (discussed above by John and others)**

RGEM for Saturday:

 

Long shot Sunday:

 

 

 

 

 

Probably shouldn't be teasing John, but it does seem like some of the coastal areas have been doing better lately, lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sorry if that was a lot, but what I was trying to say was that there is a very outside chance of an extra wave on Sunday. 

 

Also, to John's point about :

 

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

It's crazy to me that we see the looks at 500 that have been popping up and we are struggling to find modeled snow events. These looks would be productive throughout most of our climate history.

 

If I saw this satellite without any other context, I would think someone in TN of the MA was about to get a decent snow:

The dry slot from central MS and AL to the Cumberland Plateau is a little concerning, but still those are some colder cloud tops in the baroclinic leaf. 

 

[GBOVolz]

MRX with a statement


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[Vol4Life]

6 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

MRX with a statement


.

I know that Knox County is treating the roads as if we are about to get a blizzard!  lol!  I’ve never seen so much brine for a potential 1/2” snow in my life!

[submariner]

I know that Knox County is treating the roads as if we are about to get a blizzard!  lol!  I’ve never seen so much brine for a potential 1/2” snow in my life!

Maryville has as well.


.

[Cabby]

Upgraded to WSW for some areas

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1225 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

TNZ041-072-074-141800-
/O.UPG.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.260114T2000Z-260115T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KMRX.WS.W.0001.260114T2000Z-260115T1600Z/
Cocke Smoky Mountains-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky
Mountains-
Including the cities of Gatlinburg, Elkmont, Cades Cove, and
Hartford
1225 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches, mainly at or above 3000 feet in elevation. Locally higher
  amounts of 10 inches or more are expected along the highest peaks.
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Blount Smoky Mountains, Cocke Smoky Mountains, and Sevier
  Smoky Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

[GBOVolz]

I know that Knox County is treating the roads as if we are about to get a blizzard!  lol!  I’ve never seen so much brine for a potential 1/2” snow in my life!

We are now under a Brine Warning.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS about to pull the Sunday system back west quite a bit, I think. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]