January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah towards or into next weekend

One of the camps of models is going to be wrong.  Way wrong at that.  Will the MJO  win or the models win?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro for this weekend for primarily eastern areas:

 

[1234snow]

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah I just put it in Banter. That is some DGEX level stuff. True weenie dreams. 

[housemtnTN]

4 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

Oh wow hahaha that is absolutely wild.

[Matthew70]

11 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

Looks like the battle line is I40.  As always.

[Matthew70]

The GFS is off it’s meds.

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

35" for Indy, 40" at Columbus, and 50" at Pittsburgh. Lol

[*Flash*]

PSA Reminder: All models are wrong, some are...that's right...useful. Even clown maps can be beneficial in signaling a storm or pattern's ceiling, laugh at them we may. Sometimes, we just got to zoom out and appreciate we're smack-dab in the best 7-month stretch of the year (10/1-4/30). Plus, we're looking at net positive trends approaching peak winter climo. That should keep our forum hopefully optimistic the next few weeks, barring anything unforeseen. 

[Matthew70]

If the -AO is for real that’s being shown.  The MJO may have no say so in the matter. One thing even the wx office here in Nashville has said in the past.  “A -AO almost always means it’s going to get really cold here.”  So we have a -EPO -NAO -AO.  That’s a heck of a trio for us to have. 

[Reb]

RGEM is cooking up something sweet 

[Carvers Gap]

48 minutes ago, Reb said:

RGEM is cooking up something sweet 

No kidding.  Nice look.

[John1122]

The GEM followed the RGEM but is even more robust.

[Carvers Gap]

So what is the difference between the GFS and GEM at that time frame?  Did the GFS hold something back?  The GEM looks remarkably like the GFS solutions from a few days ago...tropical system and all.

[Reb]

GFS trending in the right direction.
 

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So what is the difference between the GFS and GEM at that time frame?  Did the GFS hold something back?  The GEM looks remarkably like the GFS solutions from a few days ago...tropical system and all.

The GEM drops the energy in a couple hundred miles west of the GFS it looks like. Further east, no go, further west, better for us.

[John1122]

The UKIE and GGEM are similar with their precip footprint this weekend but the UKIE is very warm and it rains even though it's overnight and 850s are like -3c.

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The UKIE and GGEM are similar with their precip footprint this weekend but the UKIE is very warm and it rains even though it's overnight and 850s are like -3c.

Hopefully Canadian Suite is correct. Thermal flawed with Ukie that run.