January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah towards or into next weekend

One of the camps of models is going to be wrong.  Way wrong at that.  Will the MJO  win or the models win?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro for this weekend for primarily eastern areas:

 

[1234snow]

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah I just put it in Banter. That is some DGEX level stuff. True weenie dreams. 

[housemtnTN]

4 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

Oh wow hahaha that is absolutely wild.

[Matthew70]

11 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

Looks like the battle line is I40.  As always.

[Matthew70]

The GFS is off it’s meds.

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, 1234snow said:

18z GFS clown map is insane for the Ohio Valley to Northeast for the 25th time frame.

35" for Indy, 40" at Columbus, and 50" at Pittsburgh. Lol

[*Flash*]

PSA Reminder: All models are wrong, some are...that's right...useful. Even clown maps can be beneficial in signaling a storm or pattern's ceiling, laugh at them we may. Sometimes, we just got to zoom out and appreciate we're smack-dab in the best 7-month stretch of the year (10/1-4/30). Plus, we're looking at net positive trends approaching peak winter climo. That should keep our forum hopefully optimistic the next few weeks, barring anything unforeseen. 

[Matthew70]

If the -AO is for real that’s being shown.  The MJO may have no say so in the matter. One thing even the wx office here in Nashville has said in the past.  “A -AO almost always means it’s going to get really cold here.”  So we have a -EPO -NAO -AO.  That’s a heck of a trio for us to have.