January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIFS Euro is just one cold wave after another for 360 hours.  Again, my general premise is to get cold in place and let's roll.  Next rule is to be willing to ride the gradient where cold and warm meet...there you will most likely find the storm track.

[Carvers Gap]

I mean...you all realize that we are pulling off this cold shot while in phase 6 of the MJO according to the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia.  And yes, as @GaWxnoted, there are phase 6 analogs which have cold.  Pretty interesting forecast plot as well.  But...see how tough it has been to model.  It has been all over the place, and makes me wonder if modeling (which is too sensitive to the MJO) is struggling due to that?  And yes, I finally broke down and used the actual Australian index.  Haha!

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Pineapple Express was the name. That was long before the NOAA G-IV flew and long before the 53rd out of Kessler ventured out for Winter RECON missions!

That is what I called it for a long time...still do for this area.

[GBOVolz]

I’m hoping we see some action with the vort moving through Texas


.

That’s the one i thought you were talking about. Doesn’t the Euro have that same look but kicks it across the GOM?


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[Kentucky]

57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have already told my wife that I am gonna start chasing the atmospheric river in the Sierra Nevada or big storms in the East.  

awesome, yeah I've always wanted to experience/document one of those as well. I had no idea at the time how rare 93,96, and thought for sure we'd have another by now. I remember them well, just didn't get to document any of it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z Canadian Para is how I think this week unfolds.  the 6z Euro does have a sneaky little system again along the Gulf for the weekend...if that were to back westward?  I don't think it is overly realistic, but the GEM para has a second vortex, but it slides over the Tenn Valley.  Multiple, light waves of snow in that cold air makes a lot of sense for the weekend.

[GBOVolz]

HRRR is at its max range but it definitely threw a bone to everyone east of 75.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS w/ a nice look at 165, but......yep.  We've seen that movie before.

[Carvers Gap]

57 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out. 

Nice littler run by the 12z GEM on the 17th.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are the pretty colors from 12z RGEM 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS teasing us again with that eastern Pac connection around hour 160

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM deterministic looks even better IMHO.  I think the GFS just looks suspiciously dry for the weekend and yes....the PAC connection.  I am gonna have to see it to believe it.

That said, there should be little disturbances moving along the polar jet.  If we can get some interaction w/ the STJ, we would be in business.  It won't take much.  No idea if the 12z GEM is right, but you can see how quickly things can escalate if the front taps the Gulf.

[nrgjeff]

for the weekend: Canadian indeed pushes more chips onto the table. Setting up for disappointment in southeast Tenn. 
It's like after a blown save (good GFS a few days ago) you get a couple baserunners, but it's two outs so I'm not hopeful. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 25th on all models(since overnight) looks pretty ripe.  Long gradient w/ multiple high pressures and no slp in the Great Lakes!

[Carvers Gap]

And the 12z GFS shows the risk around the 25th or just after.  The 0z Euro was more of a cutter type of system...but both kind of slide across w/ very cold air just to the north.  The 12z GEM likely got lost late in the run w/ the weird West Coast stuff that models have had all winter - and yes, the West Coast does get precip during winter, but maybe not quite like that.  

Models are going to struggle a little bit as very cold air is potentially going to get trapped around the 25th(see my recent posts on the matter).  How far west that cold goes will depend on the strength of the SER in the East.  If it drops into the central or eastern Plains, we likely would be in business.

 

[Carvers Gap]

That 25th-28th timeframe does coincide w/ the MJO potentially trekking into phase 8.  Yeah, I looked, but kind of felt like it might impact EC weather.  With HL blocking in place, a phase 8-1-2-3 of the MJO circuit, and it being mid-winter....I have seen A LOT worse at this time of year from both teleconnections and modeling.

[Cabby]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1129 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-140800-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.260114T2000Z-260115T1600Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-
Including the cities of Doeville, Laurel Bloomery, Citico,
Gatlinburg, Mountain City, Neva, Unicoi, Cades Cove, Elkmont,
Shady Valley, Limestone Cove, Hartford, Hampton, Cedar Creek,
Trade, Erwin, and Coker Creek
1129 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches,
  but up to 6 inches for elevations above 5000 feet. Winds gusting
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of east Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EST Thursday.

[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

That 25th-28th timeframe does coincide w/ the MJO potentially trekking into phase 8.  Yeah, I looked, but kind of felt like it might impact EC weather.  With HL blocking in place, a phase 8-1-2-3 of the MJO circuit, and it being mid-winter....I have seen A LOT worse at this time of year from both teleconnections and modeling.

Are not the EPO and AO still negative also.  Both of those being negative usually ends up east of the Rockies being pretty darn cold.

[John1122]

This flu has fought back and is wholloping me currently. Just glad to get to read you guys in here. It helps me because I just don't feel up to even looking at the models. 

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This flu has fought back and is wholloping me currently. Just glad to get to read you guys in here. It helps me because I just don't feel up to even looking at the models. 

John get to feeling better.  I’ve heard the flu is not easy to have this year.  Of course, when is being sick easy lol.  They say it’ll knock you on your butt this year.

[Carvers Gap]

And who knows if it is correct, but the 12z GFS does have some support from both ensembles and other deterministic runs...the 12z GFS does amplify the pattern after the 25th w/ very cold air getting trapped over NA...just look at the 500 heights.  The 0z Euro just about went to the extreme.  Big story for 240+(proceed at your own risk...) is the movement of very cold air into NA.  Can it get to our latitude?  I think it has a chance.

Feel better, @John1122! Hopefully @Daniel Booneis on the mend.  I haven't seen him post as much recently.

 

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Are not the EPO and AO still negative also.  Both of those being negative usually ends up east of the Rockies being pretty darn cold.

Yeah, man.  Big ol' banana over the top in the medium and LR.  EPO -> AO -> NAO.

[tnweathernut]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This flu has fought back and is wholloping me currently. Just glad to get to read you guys in here. It helps me because I just don't feel up to even looking at the models. 

Feel better soon.  I hope you were able to get on an anti-viral.  They say they can really help if started in the first 48 hours.

 

[Jed33]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

This flu has fought back and is wholloping me currently. Just glad to get to read you guys in here. It helps me because I just don't feel up to even looking at the models. 

That flu is no joke! Hope you get well soon John!

[Matthew70]

I’m not disappointed in this winter at all so far.  Yes it sucks that we have not got any snow yet, but it’s been chilly to cold most of the winter so far.

[Carvers Gap]

 

17 minutes ago, Cabby said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1129 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-140800-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0001.260114T2000Z-260115T1600Z/
Johnson-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Southeast
Carter-Blount Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast
Monroe-
Including the cities of Doeville, Laurel Bloomery, Citico,
Gatlinburg, Mountain City, Neva, Unicoi, Cades Cove, Elkmont,
Shady Valley, Limestone Cove, Hartford, Hampton, Cedar Creek,
Trade, Erwin, and Coker Creek
1129 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches,
  but up to 6 inches for elevations above 5000 feet. Winds gusting
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...A portion of east Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 3 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EST Thursday.

Great find.  6 inches of snow and 40mph winds.  Wow!  Not a good time to be above 5000'.  Almost seems like a WSW is applicable at higher elevations for this one?  

[John1122]

Thank you all. When you get older things you shrugged off as a young man really hit hard. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro backing the flow a bit on the weekend shortwave, like the RGEM and CMC

[*Flash*]

45 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I’m not disappointed in this winter at all so far.  Yes it sucks that we have not got any snow yet, but it’s been chilly to cold most of the winter so far.

Agreed. I feel moderately secure in the temp department, which is more often the bane for our tracking pleasures. Drought is the fly in the ointment as has been pointed out. Just give me some moisture fetch somewhere and I'll take my chances on high ratios...or if my locale can't score, cook up some 3-6" action up on the plateau and I'll take the fam to Monterey. Seriously, just give us some flakes, Mother Nature. My kids literally asked me this morning if I could ask Siri for some snow. I cried a little inside. I so wish it was that easy.