January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIFS Euro is just one cold wave after another for 360 hours.  Again, my general premise is to get cold in place and let's roll.  Next rule is to be willing to ride the gradient where cold and warm meet...there you will most likely find the storm track.

[Carvers Gap]

I mean...you all realize that we are pulling off this cold shot while in phase 6 of the MJO according to the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia.  And yes, as @GaWxnoted, there are phase 6 analogs which have cold.  Pretty interesting forecast plot as well.  But...see how tough it has been to model.  It has been all over the place, and makes me wonder if modeling (which is too sensitive to the MJO) is struggling due to that?  And yes, I finally broke down and used the actual Australian index.  Haha!

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Pineapple Express was the name. That was long before the NOAA G-IV flew and long before the 53rd out of Kessler ventured out for Winter RECON missions!

That is what I called it for a long time...still do for this area.

[GBOVolz]

I’m hoping we see some action with the vort moving through Texas


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That’s the one i thought you were talking about. Doesn’t the Euro have that same look but kicks it across the GOM?


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[Kentucky]

57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have already told my wife that I am gonna start chasing the atmospheric river in the Sierra Nevada or big storms in the East.  

awesome, yeah I've always wanted to experience/document one of those as well. I had no idea at the time how rare 93,96, and thought for sure we'd have another by now. I remember them well, just didn't get to document any of it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z Canadian Para is how I think this week unfolds.  the 6z Euro does have a sneaky little system again along the Gulf for the weekend...if that were to back westward?  I don't think it is overly realistic, but the GEM para has a second vortex, but it slides over the Tenn Valley.  Multiple, light waves of snow in that cold air makes a lot of sense for the weekend.

[GBOVolz]

HRRR is at its max range but it definitely threw a bone to everyone east of 75.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS w/ a nice look at 165, but......yep.  We've seen that movie before.

[Carvers Gap]

57 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Long range RGEM backing the flow a little bit before one of the weekend's short waves. I'll post another pic when the prettier maps come out. 

Nice littler run by the 12z GEM on the 17th.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here are the pretty colors from 12z RGEM 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GFS teasing us again with that eastern Pac connection around hour 160

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM deterministic looks even better IMHO.  I think the GFS just looks suspiciously dry for the weekend and yes....the PAC connection.  I am gonna have to see it to believe it.

That said, there should be little disturbances moving along the polar jet.  If we can get some interaction w/ the STJ, we would be in business.  It won't take much.  No idea if the 12z GEM is right, but you can see how quickly things can escalate if the front taps the Gulf.

[nrgjeff]

for the weekend: Canadian indeed pushes more chips onto the table. Setting up for disappointment in southeast Tenn. 
It's like after a blown save (good GFS a few days ago) you get a couple baserunners, but it's two outs so I'm not hopeful. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 25th on all models(since overnight) looks pretty ripe.  Long gradient w/ multiple high pressures and no slp in the Great Lakes!

[Carvers Gap]

And the 12z GFS shows the risk around the 25th or just after.  The 0z Euro was more of a cutter type of system...but both kind of slide across w/ very cold air just to the north.  The 12z GEM likely got lost late in the run w/ the weird West Coast stuff that models have had all winter - and yes, the West Coast does get precip during winter, but maybe not quite like that.  

Models are going to struggle a little bit as very cold air is potentially going to get trapped around the 25th(see my recent posts on the matter).  How far west that cold goes will depend on the strength of the SER in the East.  If it drops into the central or eastern Plains, we likely would be in business.

 

[Carvers Gap]

That 25th-28th timeframe does coincide w/ the MJO potentially trekking into phase 8.  Yeah, I looked, but kind of felt like it might impact EC weather.  With HL blocking in place, a phase 8-1-2-3 of the MJO circuit, and it being mid-winter....I have seen A LOT worse at this time of year from both teleconnections and modeling.