January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIFS Euro is just one cold wave after another for 360 hours.  Again, my general premise is to get cold in place and let's roll.  Next rule is to be willing to ride the gradient where cold and warm meet...there you will most likely find the storm track.

[Carvers Gap]

I mean...you all realize that we are pulling off this cold shot while in phase 6 of the MJO according to the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia.  And yes, as @GaWxnoted, there are phase 6 analogs which have cold.  Pretty interesting forecast plot as well.  But...see how tough it has been to model.  It has been all over the place, and makes me wonder if modeling (which is too sensitive to the MJO) is struggling due to that?  And yes, I finally broke down and used the actual Australian index.  Haha!

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said:

Pineapple Express was the name. That was long before the NOAA G-IV flew and long before the 53rd out of Kessler ventured out for Winter RECON missions!

That is what I called it for a long time...still do for this area.

[GBOVolz]

I’m hoping we see some action with the vort moving through Texas


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That’s the one i thought you were talking about. Doesn’t the Euro have that same look but kicks it across the GOM?


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[Kentucky]

57 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have already told my wife that I am gonna start chasing the atmospheric river in the Sierra Nevada or big storms in the East.  

awesome, yeah I've always wanted to experience/document one of those as well. I had no idea at the time how rare 93,96, and thought for sure we'd have another by now. I remember them well, just didn't get to document any of it. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z Canadian Para is how I think this week unfolds.  the 6z Euro does have a sneaky little system again along the Gulf for the weekend...if that were to back westward?  I don't think it is overly realistic, but the GEM para has a second vortex, but it slides over the Tenn Valley.  Multiple, light waves of snow in that cold air makes a lot of sense for the weekend.

[GBOVolz]

HRRR is at its max range but it definitely threw a bone to everyone east of 75.


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