January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

This is the 15z NBM.  It has definitely bump-ed up over the past 24 hours.  The trend is our friend.

[jaxjagman]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is the 15z NBM.  It has definitely bump-ed up over the past 24 hours.  The trend is our friend.

True,thats  a uptick even since the 12z,not much but something is better than nothing..lol

[tnweathernut]

I said yesterday I thought the midweek system is likely somewhere between the bombs shown on the GFS and the relatively light Euro/GEM runs.  I don’t see anything yet to sway me from that….

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the feature I am talking about.  See this long arc of moisture feeding Into the Tenn and Ohio Valleys from the eastern Pacific.  This is a southerly displaced Pineapple Express(loosely defined I freely admit).  The Euro AIFS has had this from time to time.  I just think this is not likely.  HOWEVER, if the feed only tapped the Gulf...this is plausible and can't be ruled out.  Scottie asked if the setup has precedent.  I am actually going to change my answer.  It does have precedent now that I can see this view, BUT really no other model(exception AIFS) has this.  If there is any model that could score a weird coup, its is the GFS...but it just seems like an outlier at this point which has to be discounted (with system 2) until it gets some more support.  It would be remarkable for the GFS to nail this....

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I said yesterday I thought the midweek system is likely somewhere between the bombs shown on the GFS and the relatively light Euro/GEM runs.  I don’t see anything yet to sway me from that….

Agree.  What are your thoughts on the 17th system?

[tnweathernut]

Will be interesting to see the strength of number one and how that affects number two.  

[jaxjagman]

The warm SST'S into the GOM are a breeding ground for strong storms right now,really would hate to see cold get penetrated into the region,of course for people into that region time to time you see winter modeled into that region even tho its fantasy range

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Based on surface pressure maps from the Euro, I'm guessing it's a big old nope on the second system 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But let's also be fair to the GFS, the Euro (on left) also has some weird tropical critter in Pac, but the shortwave mess just ins't oriented in a way to draw from it. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Based on surface pressure maps from the Euro, I'm guessing it's a big old nope on the second system 

 

Bout the same as it has been really.  Interestingly, the 500 vort map for the 17th.....has a healthy little vortex in the eastern Pac just like the GFS.  It didn't grab the moisture feed, but I found that interesting.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just based on the H5 vort and relative humidity maps it might be trying for something 200 hrs or so. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

But let's also be fair to the GFS, the Euro (on left) also has some weird tropical critter in Pac, but the shortwave mess just ins't oriented in a way to draw from it. 

Haha.  Jinx.  True.  I posted about the same time as you.  The BIG difference is the moisture feed is missing, but what a coup that would be as it has zero support from any other deterministic run.  Let's see if any of the ensemble members of other models have that feed connected into the front.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The Euro is definitely pulling on some stj moisture post 220 hrs or so. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro traps a piece of the TPV.  That is one thing we have noted as a possibility.  Crazy cold at the end of that run.

[Carvers Gap]

It is in fantasy land, but the end of that 12z Euro run is gonna get a lot of press if it can reproduce that tonight.  The 12z GEM was flirting with it.  With it being January, an EPO ridge in place, and blocking over the top....there is definitely a risk of very cold air getting trapped under that block and sent south.  I don't see a clear signal yet, but deterministic runs are flirting with it.  Not sure I want any part of that.

[Carvers Gap]

The risk of that cold air mass sits right outside of d10.  The 12z GEM got to where the Euro did at 240...we just couldn't see the rest of the run.  That would be something else.  

Still, I think we have some light snow chances prior to that...but if the GEM and Euro are correct, that would quiet the pattern after 240.

[Matthew70]

As stated last night .  ICON/GFS vs all the others is not a winning team to be on.  Now we see if what the Euro shows moves forward & not kicking the can. Definitely feels like winter out today.  The snow flurries & snow showers were a swing & miss for the mid state.  Hopefully you east TN peeps get some good snow showers. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Speculation post:

If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 

 

11/11/25:

 

Jan 15 2026

Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the:

#speculative

 

Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March. 

 

[Jed33]

The end of the gfs was about to send it to. Had a 1060 parent HP in Canada and a 1055 in SE Montana.

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Speculation post:

If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 

 

11/11/25:

 

Jan 15 2026

Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the:

#speculative

 

Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March. 

 

Would not surprise me.  Cold springs have become the norm here.  Sigh Cold rains.  Yuck. 

[Carvers Gap]

Good looking run of the 12z ensembles today.  As noted so there is no confusion...there is a ridge forecast to roll through from roughly the 22-25th.  All three major ensembles are now showing the potential for yet more cold to arrive around the 25th or just after.  That is good news.  On modeling earlier in the week, the EPO kept retrograding into Asia and the wait for more cold could well have lasted through the first week of Feb(that is still on the table BTW). We are also seeing deterministic models flirt with VERY cold air masses.  When we see the big highs which Jed mentions, that is usually an indicator of another cold air mass.  The end of the Euro was frigid.  We won't see that type of Euro every time, but ensembles do support the potential for yet more cold.  The big thing to watch for is continued blocking over the top w/ ridging in the eastern Pacific.

And we aren't having to wait 14 days for more cold...it is cold right now.

[TellicoWx]

Mid week system...Lee side LPs are almost always a boom or bust situation with even short range models struggling with them. Most of our surprise snows on this side of the state have been caused by some sort of lee side...(some of the greatest busts have been too "lack of one forming"). I've always considered them coinflips that we just dont have the physics engine yet to simulate (they are more or less induced by the microclimates of the Apps spine). 

[Carvers Gap]

I just read a post from JB which pointed out 12z ICON at 180.  Now, I don't really use the ICON much, but that run illustrates the concern which we mentioned here(well before JB) of the TPV getting trapped and sent south.  I don't think that particular ICON solution comes to pass, but it could happen a few days later if HL blocking locks cold in over NA with that big EPO in place.  I don't think the scenario of the TPV getting sent south(at least a part of it) is a given, but I would give it a 60/40 chance.  Anyway, that ICON run is worth a look if just for kicks and giggles.

[*Flash*]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Speculation post:

If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 

 

11/11/25:

 

Jan 15 2026

Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the:

#speculative

 

Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March. 

 

Will be interesting to see if our forum sees one last hurrah during the second week of March. We've seen it before!

[Matthew70]

Sadly the drought in West TN & the Carolinas is going to most likely get worse.  That’s if the Euro is correct, which more than likely is.  

[Met1985]

27 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Sadly the drought in West TN & the Carolinas is going to most likely get worse.  That’s if the Euro is correct, which more than likely is.  

Most in the western part of NC got a lot of rainfall from Friday to Saturday.  Anywhere from 2 to 6 inches. A lot of highway flooding and basements flooded. But Eastern NC got nothing. 

[Matthew70]

18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Most in the western part of NC got a lot of rainfall from Friday to Saturday.  Anywhere from 2 to 6 inches. A lot of highway flooding and basements flooded. But Eastern NC got nothing. 

Good to hear.   Hopefully eastern parts get some soon.  

[Carvers Gap]

***MRX***.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Currently a few snow showers are moving northwest to southeast
across mainly northeast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. These
showers are producing quick bursts of light to moderate snow for
several minutes before quickly moving out, even with temperatures in
the mid to upper 30`s. It`s strong enough to cause a dusting of snow
accumulations, especially in the higher terrain of the northern
Plateau, but once the snow shower moves out anything on the ground
quickly begins to melt. Expect these scattered snow showers to
continue through the afternoon hours as there is still plenty of
 returns back into eastern Kentucky that still need to
work their way eastward.

In addition the winds out of the northwest are gusting pretty good
in the higher elevations with numerous places likely seeing 30-40mph
gusts. Will continue with the wind advisory for the East Tennessee
mountains, especially with winds getting enhanced by the snow
showers we`ll likely see periods just above advisory level winds.

Quiet weather and a quick warm up to start the work week with highs
climbing back into the 50`s for much of the Valley by Tuesday. Front
will move through Wednesday along with precipitation. Expect the
precipitation to start as rain for most, and temperatures will drop
overnight and we switch over to snow.

Won`t get too in the weeds with model diagnostics and snow amounts
because the one consistent thing with this upcoming
Wednesday/Thursday system is that the long range deterministic
models do not have a good handle on it at all... Which is to be
expected in a northwest flow event that can drastically change based
on temp/moisture availability/forcing/etc. It would be a fools
errand to pick your favorite deterministic model that shows 6" of
snow in the central valley, or (on the opposite end) the model that
shows no snow in the valley and just a dusting in the
Appalachians... and expect them to verify. In northwest flow snow
events it`s a good idea to wait until the higher resolution short
term models and hourly models start to ingest the upcoming event.
This far out a look at the probabilistic guidance is probably of more
use. The 90/95th percentile shows some very extreme amounts, but if
you look at the mean/median and the 25-75th percentiles a more
traditional northwest flow event is the common sentiment. For
example (do not take these values as a forecast) for Knoxville some
of the deterministic data shows 5+ inches of snow, but the
median/mean and box and whiskers data points to a 0.5-2" event,
which aligns more closely to what typically happens in a northwest
snow event. Also worth keeping an eye on is the timing of the
transition to snow and the best forcing. If you want accumulating
snow in the valley you traditionally want your best forcing and
heaviest precipitation to occur overnight as during the daytime the
sun really limits how productive the clouds are at ice nucleation.

So long story short with what might occur on Wednesday into
Thursday. LOW confidence in snow amounts (don`t believe just a
single model) HIGH confidence snow will occur somewhere with the
Cumberland Plateau, southwest VA, and especially the East Tennesse
mountains having the best chance to see accumulations. If you have
travel plans that involve going over the Appalachians or the
Cumberland Plateau plan on possible snow accumulations on the road.
Good news is this event looks to be a clean transition from rain to
snow, and hopefully keeping the gross icy stuff to a very short
window and any ice impacts minimal. Best thing to do right now is
pay attention to the forecast updates as the models will likely
continue to oscillate wildly in snow potential, and confidence
should begin to increase when we`re about 72 hours and higher
resolution models and hourly models start to come into play.

As we head into the weekend cold temperatures remain in place with
yet another possible snow maker looking to move through somewhere
over the eastern US. If you thought models were handling
Wednesday/Thursday poorly then you don`t even want to glance at the
weekend. A lot of what might happen Saturday/Sunday will depend on
what happens Wednesday/Thursday, but if you have any upcoming
weekend plans keep an eye on the forecast for possible travel
impacts in the higher elevations.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Th 18z AI GFS(yeah, I know) is wild.  I really wish it had winter numbers for ice and snow.  As is, you are left to guess.  I do think ice is a huge risk w/ this pattern.

The 18z GFS has two, light snow events...the 17th event has a bit more moisture.

Read the advice from MRX regarding northern stream systems.  Let's see if the 17th system doesn't start to add back some moisture during the next few runs.  It is just now coming out of the 5-7 window where sometimes systems get "lost" and still might be a couple of runs from exiting that window.

[tnweathernut]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Agree.  What are your thoughts on the 17th system?

I thought this had a chance to be a significant system.  Still think that’s a possibility, but it looks fairly progressive on modeling with light precip that weakens as it moves east toward the coast.  Need to see midweek first I think……