January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

This is the 15z NBM.  It has definitely bump-ed up over the past 24 hours.  The trend is our friend.

[jaxjagman]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This is the 15z NBM.  It has definitely bump-ed up over the past 24 hours.  The trend is our friend.

True,thats  a uptick even since the 12z,not much but something is better than nothing..lol

[tnweathernut]

I said yesterday I thought the midweek system is likely somewhere between the bombs shown on the GFS and the relatively light Euro/GEM runs.  I don’t see anything yet to sway me from that….

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the feature I am talking about.  See this long arc of moisture feeding Into the Tenn and Ohio Valleys from the eastern Pacific.  This is a southerly displaced Pineapple Express(loosely defined I freely admit).  The Euro AIFS has had this from time to time.  I just think this is not likely.  HOWEVER, if the feed only tapped the Gulf...this is plausible and can't be ruled out.  Scottie asked if the setup has precedent.  I am actually going to change my answer.  It does have precedent now that I can see this view, BUT really no other model(exception AIFS) has this.  If there is any model that could score a weird coup, its is the GFS...but it just seems like an outlier at this point which has to be discounted (with system 2) until it gets some more support.  It would be remarkable for the GFS to nail this....

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I said yesterday I thought the midweek system is likely somewhere between the bombs shown on the GFS and the relatively light Euro/GEM runs.  I don’t see anything yet to sway me from that….

Agree.  What are your thoughts on the 17th system?

[tnweathernut]

Will be interesting to see the strength of number one and how that affects number two.  

[jaxjagman]

The warm SST'S into the GOM are a breeding ground for strong storms right now,really would hate to see cold get penetrated into the region,of course for people into that region time to time you see winter modeled into that region even tho its fantasy range

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Based on surface pressure maps from the Euro, I'm guessing it's a big old nope on the second system 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But let's also be fair to the GFS, the Euro (on left) also has some weird tropical critter in Pac, but the shortwave mess just ins't oriented in a way to draw from it. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Based on surface pressure maps from the Euro, I'm guessing it's a big old nope on the second system 

 

Bout the same as it has been really.  Interestingly, the 500 vort map for the 17th.....has a healthy little vortex in the eastern Pac just like the GFS.  It didn't grab the moisture feed, but I found that interesting.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just based on the H5 vort and relative humidity maps it might be trying for something 200 hrs or so. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

But let's also be fair to the GFS, the Euro (on left) also has some weird tropical critter in Pac, but the shortwave mess just ins't oriented in a way to draw from it. 

Haha.  Jinx.  True.  I posted about the same time as you.  The BIG difference is the moisture feed is missing, but what a coup that would be as it has zero support from any other deterministic run.  Let's see if any of the ensemble members of other models have that feed connected into the front.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The Euro is definitely pulling on some stj moisture post 220 hrs or so. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro traps a piece of the TPV.  That is one thing we have noted as a possibility.  Crazy cold at the end of that run.

[Carvers Gap]

It is in fantasy land, but the end of that 12z Euro run is gonna get a lot of press if it can reproduce that tonight.  The 12z GEM was flirting with it.  With it being January, an EPO ridge in place, and blocking over the top....there is definitely a risk of very cold air getting trapped under that block and sent south.  I don't see a clear signal yet, but deterministic runs are flirting with it.  Not sure I want any part of that.

[Carvers Gap]

The risk of that cold air mass sits right outside of d10.  The 12z GEM got to where the Euro did at 240...we just couldn't see the rest of the run.  That would be something else.  

Still, I think we have some light snow chances prior to that...but if the GEM and Euro are correct, that would quiet the pattern after 240.

[Matthew70]

As stated last night .  ICON/GFS vs all the others is not a winning team to be on.  Now we see if what the Euro shows moves forward & not kicking the can. Definitely feels like winter out today.  The snow flurries & snow showers were a swing & miss for the mid state.  Hopefully you east TN peeps get some good snow showers. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Speculation post:

If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 

 

11/11/25:

 

Jan 15 2026

Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the:

#speculative

 

Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March. 

 

[Jed33]

The end of the gfs was about to send it to. Had a 1060 parent HP in Canada and a 1055 in SE Montana.

[Matthew70]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Speculation post:

If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 

 

11/11/25:

 

Jan 15 2026

Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the:

#speculative

 

Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March. 

 

Would not surprise me.  Cold springs have become the norm here.  Sigh Cold rains.  Yuck. 

[Carvers Gap]

Good looking run of the 12z ensembles today.  As noted so there is no confusion...there is a ridge forecast to roll through from roughly the 22-25th.  All three major ensembles are now showing the potential for yet more cold to arrive around the 25th or just after.  That is good news.  On modeling earlier in the week, the EPO kept retrograding into Asia and the wait for more cold could well have lasted through the first week of Feb(that is still on the table BTW). We are also seeing deterministic models flirt with VERY cold air masses.  When we see the big highs which Jed mentions, that is usually an indicator of another cold air mass.  The end of the Euro was frigid.  We won't see that type of Euro every time, but ensembles do support the potential for yet more cold.  The big thing to watch for is continued blocking over the top w/ ridging in the eastern Pacific.

And we aren't having to wait 14 days for more cold...it is cold right now.

[TellicoWx]

Mid week system...Lee side LPs are almost always a boom or bust situation with even short range models struggling with them. Most of our surprise snows on this side of the state have been caused by some sort of lee side...(some of the greatest busts have been too "lack of one forming"). I've always considered them coinflips that we just dont have the physics engine yet to simulate (they are more or less induced by the microclimates of the Apps spine). 

[Carvers Gap]

I just read a post from JB which pointed out 12z ICON at 180.  Now, I don't really use the ICON much, but that run illustrates the concern which we mentioned here(well before JB) of the TPV getting trapped and sent south.  I don't think that particular ICON solution comes to pass, but it could happen a few days later if HL blocking locks cold in over NA with that big EPO in place.  I don't think the scenario of the TPV getting sent south(at least a part of it) is a given, but I would give it a 60/40 chance.  Anyway, that ICON run is worth a look if just for kicks and giggles.

[*Flash*]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Speculation post:

If patterns run in cycles, it's been almost exactly 60 days since we had an anomalous shortwave dropdown over the southern Apps and drop some early season snowfall. 

 

11/11/25:

 

Jan 15 2026

Overall NA pattern isn't quite the same, but thus the:

#speculative

 

Would be interesting if we got another rerun of this in early March. 

 

Will be interesting to see if our forum sees one last hurrah during the second week of March. We've seen it before!

[Matthew70]

Sadly the drought in West TN & the Carolinas is going to most likely get worse.  That’s if the Euro is correct, which more than likely is.  

[Met1985]

27 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Sadly the drought in West TN & the Carolinas is going to most likely get worse.  That’s if the Euro is correct, which more than likely is.  

Most in the western part of NC got a lot of rainfall from Friday to Saturday.  Anywhere from 2 to 6 inches. A lot of highway flooding and basements flooded. But Eastern NC got nothing. 

[Matthew70]

18 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Most in the western part of NC got a lot of rainfall from Friday to Saturday.  Anywhere from 2 to 6 inches. A lot of highway flooding and basements flooded. But Eastern NC got nothing. 

Good to hear.   Hopefully eastern parts get some soon.