January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Matthew70]

14 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track.


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Very sorry to hear your mom is unwell.  Praying for you & your family. 

[John1122]

The GFS is just firing it in there for the double event set up.

[Weatheriscool]

Lock it in! 

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Lock it in! 

Canada gone wild on that run.

[tnweathernut]

4 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

Lock it in! 

Eastman Bubble Checks out, eh @Carvers Gap?   lol

[Weatheriscool]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

Eastman Bubble Checks out, eh @Carvers Gap?   lol

Yea, file that in the "never happen folder but fun to look at" 

[Wurbus]

Full Canadian run is more for East TN as wekk and still snowing in East TN at the end. GFS also has a good hit for East TN around the same timeframe!

[John1122]

The Canadian is still snowing over the eastern half of the state at the end with temps in the single digits across the state. It's so cold the ratios are insane. Almost 20:1 in parts of the area.

[Weatheriscool]

4 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

Full Canadian run is more for East TN as wekk and still snowing in East TN at the end. GFS also has a good hit for East TN around the same timeframe!

 

Looked pretty good for West and Middle I would say as well - I think sometimes we forget the forum is the entire state lol 

[John1122]

These storms are highly unlikely to play out as modeled, but the multiple windows Carver's has spoken of are definitely in play.

The Canadian would be 1985esque with heavy snow state wide and well below zero cold.

[tnweathernut]

Just now, Weatheriscool said:

Looked pretty good for West and Middle I would say as well - I think sometimes we forget the forum is the entire state lol 

I don't think he forgot at all.  Looks like a west and middle event - of course it will change iterations again in 4 hours so this probably doesn't matter.  He was just saying the east looked ok too....  Overall, the pattern looks to be moving into a position conducive to something other than rain in the SE.   Next step, get something within day 5/6.  

[Jed33]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The GFS is just firing it in there for the double event set up.

That first system is around 138hrs. Finally got something in the 5-6 day window.

[Jed33]

1 hour ago, GBOVolz said:

Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track.


.

Sorry to hear about your mom. I will be praying for her to get well.

[jaxjagman]

I wouldnt trust any model this far out,seen it to many times in our parts when systems get buried here towards the GOM,theres alot that can go wrong.I.E for us in Mid Tn convection down south can cut off the QPFS,there us also other factors as well,positive tilted troughs can possibly kick the moisture out much faster,could go on and on but CMC looks to be the big outlier right now

[Wurbus]

Euro also has the system on the 18th for East TN at least.

[jaxjagman]

14 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Sorry to hear about your mom. I will be praying for her to get well.

Sorry to hear this about your mom also,prayers for you and your fam

[John1122]

The EURO has some odd convective snow showers scattered around that gives areas that get them a couple inches. Then has a miller A second system that has the heaviest snow in the East but some snow back to just west of Nashville. As Jax notes, very much for entertainment purposes here but whatever the models are seeing the last 24 hours seems to be universally producing something.

[Bigbald]

Great looking 12z suite, all the models are now honing in on the two system punch next week.  Ai-euro and GFS looked identical to me. 

[*Flash*]

14 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

Great looking 12z suite, all the models are now honing in on the two system punch next week.  Ai-euro and GFS looked identical to me. 

I was about to say. That 12z suite is looking...sweet! Plus, DT just updated his FB profile pic to Snow Dog Holmes! Always a good sign... #woofwoof

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

Eastman Bubble Checks out, eh @Carvers Gap?   lol

We were a heat island before heat islands were cool.  

[Carvers Gap]

Good 12z suite.  In the meantime, some beneficial rains will occur before the cold moves in on Sunday.  I think everyone has pretty much taken care of the 12z disco...not much to add from me!

[jaxjagman]

Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall

I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia,

[jaxjagman]

Its definite a cold look as we get into next weekend just looking at whats going through East Asia the next few  days, for a few days,maybe we can score during this time

[jaxjagman]

But anyways what it seems to me is the MJO is headed towards the WH.AFRICA and possibly strenghten,patterns like this in a declining Nina even tho its still Nina probably means possibly into Feb you guys in the east could get a good storm depending on other teleconnections,especially into our subforum

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall

I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia,

Put about a 5-7 day lag on that CFS map, and we are looking at big easter trough by the end of week 1 of Feb or the very beginning of week 2.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall

I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia,

The Euro Weeklies this afternoon definitely support that CFS MJO map.  Get a good window from say Jan15-22nd-ish.  Then, we roll a ridge complex through to end the month, then do it again to start February.  The interesting thing will be if the cold can actually retreat or if it gets trapped under a HL block.  The Euro control had the EC cold throughout the run.  Just kind of seems like it is going to be difficult to push the cold out of the pattern for long periods of time, but I could be wrong!

Ripe, ripe, ripe for an ice storm if we push a 500 ridge into the SE but the surface doesn't respond to the AN heights, ie stays cold.

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, GBOVolz said:

Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track.


.

Powell, I hate to hear that.  Hang in there.  

[tnweathernut]

4 hours ago, GBOVolz said:

Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track.


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I'll echo the others.  Praying for your mother and you too.

[Carvers Gap]

I grabbed a couple of these from CPC...the MA forum has also posted these.

 

[tnweathernut]

The winter signal on the happy hour GFS is still there around day 7