Matthew70 Posted yesterday at 04:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:35 PM 14 minutes ago, GBOVolz said: Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track. . Very sorry to hear your mom is unwell. Praying for you & your family. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM The GFS is just firing it in there for the double event set up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM Lock it in! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:47 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:47 PM 4 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said: Lock it in! Canada gone wild on that run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted yesterday at 04:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:48 PM 4 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said: Lock it in! Eastman Bubble Checks out, eh @Carvers Gap? lol 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted yesterday at 04:48 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:48 PM Just now, tnweathernut said: Eastman Bubble Checks out, eh @Carvers Gap? lol Yea, file that in the "never happen folder but fun to look at" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted yesterday at 04:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:50 PM Full Canadian run is more for East TN as wekk and still snowing in East TN at the end. GFS also has a good hit for East TN around the same timeframe! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:50 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:50 PM The Canadian is still snowing over the eastern half of the state at the end with temps in the single digits across the state. It's so cold the ratios are insane. Almost 20:1 in parts of the area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatheriscool Posted yesterday at 04:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:54 PM 4 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Full Canadian run is more for East TN as wekk and still snowing in East TN at the end. GFS also has a good hit for East TN around the same timeframe! Looked pretty good for West and Middle I would say as well - I think sometimes we forget the forum is the entire state lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 04:58 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:58 PM These storms are highly unlikely to play out as modeled, but the multiple windows Carver's has spoken of are definitely in play. The Canadian would be 1985esque with heavy snow state wide and well below zero cold. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted yesterday at 04:59 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:59 PM Just now, Weatheriscool said: Looked pretty good for West and Middle I would say as well - I think sometimes we forget the forum is the entire state lol I don't think he forgot at all. Looks like a west and middle event - of course it will change iterations again in 4 hours so this probably doesn't matter. He was just saying the east looked ok too.... Overall, the pattern looks to be moving into a position conducive to something other than rain in the SE. Next step, get something within day 5/6. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted yesterday at 05:47 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:47 PM 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The GFS is just firing it in there for the double event set up. That first system is around 138hrs. Finally got something in the 5-6 day window. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted yesterday at 05:54 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:54 PM 1 hour ago, GBOVolz said: Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track. . Sorry to hear about your mom. I will be praying for her to get well. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:00 PM I wouldnt trust any model this far out,seen it to many times in our parts when systems get buried here towards the GOM,theres alot that can go wrong.I.E for us in Mid Tn convection down south can cut off the QPFS,there us also other factors as well,positive tilted troughs can possibly kick the moisture out much faster,could go on and on but CMC looks to be the big outlier right now 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted yesterday at 06:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:09 PM Euro also has the system on the 18th for East TN at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 06:09 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:09 PM 14 minutes ago, Jed33 said: Sorry to hear about your mom. I will be praying for her to get well. Sorry to hear this about your mom also,prayers for you and your fam 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted yesterday at 06:10 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 06:10 PM The EURO has some odd convective snow showers scattered around that gives areas that get them a couple inches. Then has a miller A second system that has the heaviest snow in the East but some snow back to just west of Nashville. As Jax notes, very much for entertainment purposes here but whatever the models are seeing the last 24 hours seems to be universally producing something. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted yesterday at 06:35 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:35 PM Great looking 12z suite, all the models are now honing in on the two system punch next week. Ai-euro and GFS looked identical to me. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted yesterday at 06:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:43 PM 14 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Great looking 12z suite, all the models are now honing in on the two system punch next week. Ai-euro and GFS looked identical to me. I was about to say. That 12z suite is looking...sweet! Plus, DT just updated his FB profile pic to Snow Dog Holmes! Always a good sign... #woofwoof 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 06:53 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:53 PM 2 hours ago, tnweathernut said: Eastman Bubble Checks out, eh @Carvers Gap? lol We were a heat island before heat islands were cool. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 07:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:10 PM Good 12z suite. In the meantime, some beneficial rains will occur before the cold moves in on Sunday. I think everyone has pretty much taken care of the 12z disco...not much to add from me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 07:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:17 PM Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 07:50 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:50 PM Its definite a cold look as we get into next weekend just looking at whats going through East Asia the next few days, for a few days,maybe we can score during this time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted yesterday at 08:11 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:11 PM But anyways what it seems to me is the MJO is headed towards the WH.AFRICA and possibly strenghten,patterns like this in a declining Nina even tho its still Nina probably means possibly into Feb you guys in the east could get a good storm depending on other teleconnections,especially into our subforum 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 08:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:36 PM 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia, Put about a 5-7 day lag on that CFS map, and we are looking at big easter trough by the end of week 1 of Feb or the very beginning of week 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 08:43 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:43 PM 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: Seemingly we are starting to see a pattern change upcoming,the tropical forcing is getting taken out of the WP/MC which is what we've been seeing literally since fall I'm using the GEFS and CFS I.E,take out the tropcial forcing you dont see these troughs going trough East Asia, The Euro Weeklies this afternoon definitely support that CFS MJO map. Get a good window from say Jan15-22nd-ish. Then, we roll a ridge complex through to end the month, then do it again to start February. The interesting thing will be if the cold can actually retreat or if it gets trapped under a HL block. The Euro control had the EC cold throughout the run. Just kind of seems like it is going to be difficult to push the cold out of the pattern for long periods of time, but I could be wrong! Ripe, ripe, ripe for an ice storm if we push a 500 ridge into the SE but the surface doesn't respond to the AN heights, ie stays cold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 08:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:45 PM 4 hours ago, GBOVolz said: Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track. . Powell, I hate to hear that. Hang in there. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted yesterday at 08:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:57 PM 4 hours ago, GBOVolz said: Trying to keep up. My mom isn’t doing well and I haven’t been able to consistently mod watch but it looks like we finally have something to track. . I'll echo the others. Praying for your mother and you too. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted yesterday at 09:24 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:24 PM I grabbed a couple of these from CPC...the MA forum has also posted these. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago The winter signal on the happy hour GFS is still there around day 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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