January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Weatheriscool]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Skimming through modeling this morning, it looks like the window around Jan 20th and after looks best for snow with a window Jan14-15 still in play per the 12z GFS.  The 12z AI GFS is wall to wall chances beginning next Sunday.  The 12z CMC has upslope chances on Sunday.   Both runs have not been completed.

Yea, looks like the 12Z GFS is waking up, will have to see a few similar runs from the GFS before getting excited, cautiously optimistic.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Weatheriscool said:

Yea, looks like the 12Z GFS is waking up, will have to see a few similar runs from the GFS before getting excited, cautiously optimistic.  

The 12z Euro is even better.  I am optimistic at this point that we see winter weather in the forum area.  The pattern fits it.  Deterministic runs are beginning to throw us a bone or two.  I think we will see some small northern stream vortices clip northern areas first, and then we watch the timeframe around the 20th and after for a big dog, and again...also the 14-15th for maybe something.  All of that fits climatology.  It is growing more likely with each passing day that LC has nailed this seasonal forecast.  

[Carvers Gap]

In reading JB today, he is less optimistic after the 20th(roughly 20th-end of the month).  I think relying too heavily on the MJO has been a problem all winter, and continues to cook forecasts which rely to heavily on it.  I don't see clear trends(yet) that it has impacted NA weather meaningfully.  I do think GaWx's phase 6 discussion is interesting and has merit.

What I do see is a retrograding ridge which should(and have I said this prior?  yes) continue to retrograde into Asia.  As the ridge hits the Aleutians, that teleconnects to another eastern ridge.  Then, we repeat that same cycle all over again.  I don't attribute that to the MJO.  It is a retrograding pattern with a mind of its own at this point.  So, I do think there will be a ridge(and I have already said this) which forms in the East after the 20th and then retrogrades westward again.  

But I am still not sold that actually occurs.  Deterministic and ensembles are having trouble moving that EPO ridge.  That is not an easy pattern to break down.  Deterministic models at 12z look pretty decent today....understatement BTW.

As I have noted often, the 95-96' progression seems pretty likely to me.  Snow? I doubt we see two blizzards!  But at 500 it looks remarkably similar.  JB is just mad, because his seasonal forecast didn't account for the inevitable southeast ridging produced by La Nina.  95-96 featured a window for winter weather, a warm-up, and then it repeated.  That seems plausible to me, and fits the winter pattern.  

But if I have to choose a horse to ride, LC has the hot hand.  I think by the end of February, many (not all) will feel like they have had winter.

[Carvers Gap]

Before there were all of these beautiful weather maps, we used to simply use 500 Geopotential height maps.  I don't even think we had anomalies when all of this was first on the internet.  I just used NOGAPS(US NAVY) and eyeballed it.  I can say...this is a pretty good look on the EPS.  And isn't bad for several days prior to or after this screenshot - it looks even better after this.  But when you are looking for winter storms at our latitude, this is what you look for.  So, we have moved on from tracking a ridge flipping back West to actually tracking timeframes during a window which looks good.

[Weatheriscool]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z Euro is even better.  I am optimistic at this point that we see winter weather in the forum area.  The pattern fits it.  Deterministic runs are beginning to throw us a bone or two.  I think we will see some small northern stream vortices clip northern areas first, and then we watch the timeframe around the 20th and after for a big dog, and again...also the 14-15th for maybe something.  All of that fits climatology.  It is growing more likely with each passing day that LC has nailed this seasonal forecast.  

So sounding like I need to go ahead and get another rick of wood delivered this week while the weather is warm and prices are low lol 

 

[Golf757075]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Before there were all of these beautiful weather maps, we used to simply use 500 Geopotential height maps.  I don't even think we had anomalies when all of this was first on the internet.  I just used NOGAPS(US NAVY) and eyeballed it.  I can say...this is a pretty good look on the EPS.  And isn't bad for several days prior to or after this screenshot - it looks even better after this.  But when you are looking for winter storms at our latitude, this is what you look for.  So, we have moved on from tracking a ridge flipping back West to actually tracking timeframes during a window which looks good.

Carver, this is the run from yesterday lol. You got today's run?

[Golf757075]

I just want a two week cold spell and take our chances from there lol. More would be nice. I just want winter to show up this winter please lol

[Jed33]

Well hello 18z GFS. This is the best run I believe we’ve seen this season. Happy hour delivered at least for now. 

[Wurbus]

Haven't had too much to comment on lately, but let's just lock that happy hour run in and take our chances with multiple waves.

[Matthew70]

Patience.  We’re not even in prime climo & many are living off every single run.  Instead of enjoying this beautiful wx.  As Carver has said many times before.  “Pay me now or pay me later” applies to this warm wx.  We will have cold come back.  Chances are another cold spring will happen.  Which is fine with me keeps the tornadoes away.  Love the longer days also.  

[Matthew70]

I laugh at those thinking winter is over.  Did many forget what their average snowfall is for a winter? Also December was cold compared to December’s before. People’s attitudes are definitely happy today with this weather. I know mine is! 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS is a really good run.  It isn't the first model to have a great run during the last 48 hours.  Hopefully, we continue to see those runs get more numerous.  The 18z AIFS Euro is also good.  Essentially, we just want to see a cold trough in place w/ buckles/ripples emanating along the STJ or polar jet.  I am not really looking at details quite yet...just for a tendency to grab a gradient pattern which buckles a bit.  So far, the pattern looks reasonably active.  We have tracked this trough since probably before Christmas(or right at).  It would be awesome to have some in the forum score from tracking so far out.  

[Golf757075]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

I laugh at those thinking winter is over.  Did many forget what their average snowfall is for a winter? Also December was cold compared to December’s before. People’s attitudes are definitely happy today with this weather. I know mine is! 

We only average 3-5 inches a winter, which sometimes we don't get that. I would take that every winter. Its fun tracking possibilities 

[Matthew70]

21 minutes ago, Golf757075 said:

We only average 3-5 inches a winter, which sometimes we don't get that. I would take that every winter. Its fun tracking possibilities 

Absolutely it’s fun.  Too many cancel winter when the majority of snows happen in February.  When the deep Arctic air is retreating.  Most January’s are very cold & dry.  Hopefully it will snow soon but it’s sure nice being in the 60’s.

[Golf757075]

34 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Absolutely it’s fun.  Too many cancel winter when the majority of snows happen in February.  When the deep Arctic air is retreating.  Most January’s are very cold & dry.  Hopefully it will snow soon but it’s sure nice being in the 60’s.

I think most people believe when you have a niña, February is the blowtorch month. They are hoping early on produces snow or winter weather because typically February is a warm month in most niñas. Dominant se ridge

[housemtnTN]

We've had some good snows in March as well.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Golf757075 said:

We only average 3-5 inches a winter, which sometimes we don't get that. I would take that every winter. Its fun tracking possibilities 

Snowfall Averages have really dropped off over the Decade's. 1950-1980 Average for downtown Pennington gap was. 20.7" and that was at one of the lowest elevation area's and measurements weren't measured as precise as Now.

  For instance, measurements were taken generally at one location in the Lawn and not until the Observer got up in the Morning if Snow fell at night. So, if it ended at 12 or so that Night and settling , melting or drifting occured the actual amount accumulated would be missed. 

    We measure in Intervals during a Storm and add until it Ends now thereby not losing any measurements to sublimation, settling etc..

[John1122]

The ICON has a slow moving bomb cutter than spreads snow over western areas of the forum. First time I've seen that solution. It happens in the 11th/12th time frame. 

[John1122]

GFSAI goes full in Miller A late with temps in the 10s across our area. Around .3 to .5 QPF across our area with those frigid temps. 

Way out there but the sharp and poleward PNA/EPO ridge does work. 

[John1122]

The OP GFS gets there as well, around D10. 

[John1122]

It gets better from here.

 

[John1122]

Euro AI has a couple of systems but we're too warm and the Ohio Valley and Kentucky gets snow. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z AIs are a flashback to the old biases of the old OP Euro and GFS. GFS is progressive and dry with the eastern US and the Euro got shortwaves stuck in the southwest. 

If the new bias of the current models holds true (feedback cutoffs over the west coast and baja), pretty good run of the 6z GFS too.

Ensembles still suggest best opportunities start around the 15th. 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Y'all got any of them Rossby waves???

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Y'all got any of them Rossby waves???

Looks like we are going to see this cycle back through one more time w/ the retrograding ridge...might be two more times.  I think February, w/ at least one pause, could be an interesting month.

Did you see the end of the 12z AI GFS...that is a HUGE trough.  I suspect we see a ridge pop over the East at that time, but the AI GFS isn't on board with w that idea quite yet.  That trough is how record lows are broken.  Huge grains of salt at this range.

12z GFS looks pretty dry so far.  The trough is slightly too far to the East.

[Carvers Gap]

I will say the 12z GFS still rotates a lot of energy at 500 through the northern stream.  It barely missed a phases right there w/ the southern stream.  The southern stream energy was just slightly ahead.  I wonder if that is going to end up being a storm?

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z ICON buckled the jet further west than the 12z GFS.  I wouldn't be surprised to actually see a cutter in that time frame...that is how "off" that run was Jan14-15 on the 12z GFS.

[Carvers Gap]

Man, the 12z GFS is just barely missing on some decent chances.  By 258 and just barely in fantasy land, the 12z GFS looks very similar to its AI counterpart.   Jan 17 is kind of a timeframe I have circled when the base of the trough flattens out, and allows for storms to slide across.

[*Flash*]

BAM doing some painful backtracking on X this morning. Yikes!

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEM has a storm along the coast during the 14-15th and a northern vortex crashing in.  Close miss but still some snow.  Good overall pattern though.  

As for Bam, I generally have steered clear of that site most winters....flip-flop city but some really good content at times.   Right now, the MJO seems decoupled from the NA weather pattern to some extent (certainly some influence).  

I think the window from the 11th-21st(maybe a little longer) is a good window.  Then, it looks like another ridge will retrograde through the East.  The positive from the GFS is that it RAPIDLY moves the Alaskan ridge through the Aleutians into Asia.  The faster that goes, the faster that we see the ridge develop in the West again.  February looks like it will have another deep trough develop between Feb1-10.  Remember, I am big on finding windows for winter precip, and then watching details as that window draws closer.

I do think there is a chance the ridge locks out West, but maybe a 40% chance on that.