January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

[Carvers Gap]

Watching a GFS run is like watching Tennessee play football this year.  Sometimes I am like, "This is really awesome."  And sometimes I am like, "How is this even possible?"

[Holston_River_Rambler]

20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Watching a GFS run is like watching Tennessee play football this year.  Sometimes I am like, "This is really awesome."  And sometimes I am like, "How is this even possible?"

Very timely observation. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Very timely observation. 

Haha.  Very!!!

[John1122]

Losing snow events to wild modeling misses, and coaching searches are what we do best on Rocky Top. With how Heupel closed this season, and how tough the schedule gets the next two season, the coaching search will be coming before too long. 

[Matthew70]

49 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Losing snow events to wild modeling misses, and coaching searches are what we do best on Rocky Top. With how Heupel closed this season, and how tough the schedule gets the next two season, the coaching search will be coming before too long. 

I feel your frustrations.  Being a BAMA fan, the first qtr against OK I was livid. 
All I hear is Indiana will kill us.  I was hoping UT would beat IL.  My gosh the banter of people saying the SEC is overrated just got louder.  Sadly college football is imploding.  I feel for schools like Iowa State & OK state.  They literally have 16/17 players left on their teams.  The portal & $$$ are killing it quickly.  Who would really want to coach college these days.  It’s a 365 days job.  Pros is much more easier. 

[John1122]

The 00z AI GFS is even colder than 18z. Looks like it has a powerful frontal passage that plows through the moisture for some anafrontal snow, then a clipper reinforces the cold and brings a 1-3 inch type snow across the area. Single digit temps in its wake. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The 00z AI GFS is even colder than 18z. Looks like it has a powerful frontal passage that plows through the moisture for some anafrontal snow, then a clipper reinforces the cold and brings a 1-3 inch type snow across the area. Single digit temps in its wake. 

How's it handling the Thorn in the NEPAC ? Is it showing a weaker Trough there ?

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

How's it handling the Thorn in the NEPAC ? Is it showing a weaker Trough there ?

Gone. Huge block into the Arctic. -EPO, +PNA, cross polar flow from Siberia. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z GFS loses the feedback over Baja and looks a lot like the 18z AIGFS.  Let’s see how the rest of 0z goes, but they are trending colder as John has already noted with the AIGFS.  

[Carvers Gap]

I am also noticing at tendency on the 0z GFS to include split flow with the -EPO.

[Carvers Gap]

Sitting in Knoxville…

The 0z AIGFS is definitely quick with the EPO ridge as it installs it around the 8th, and the trough begins to kick eastward at that time.  Very cold model and the 0z GFS has basically joined it.  John covers all of that nicely above.

[Carvers Gap]

Nice looks and decent agreement in general with cold placement and vastness of the airmass.

 

 

 

[Matthew70]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z GFS loses the feedback over Baja and looks a lot like the 18z AIGFS.  Let’s see how the rest of 0z goes, but they are trending colder as John has already noted with the AIGFS.  

Gawx like so many in here have been all over the data of temps trending colder.  

[Carvers Gap]

Nothing burger from the 0z Euro.  I have read some conversations that the MJO rolls into phase 6 right as the EPO forms.  We may be seeing some of that.   The Euro at 500 is still better than 12z though IMO.  See u at 12z tomorrow.

[John1122]

The Euro has a LP that moves from Colorado, southwest towards So Cal and then it just sit there over the Southwest.

[John1122]

I just sits there with the firehose turned on over Arkansas and West Tennessee, up the Ohio River valley pumping in warm air and moisture. Like 3-4 days of heavy rain with zero movement eastward because there's a Bermuda high that would make summer Bermuda high's jealous. Even with a massive west coast ridge, and major blocking over Greenland/Davis Straits, nothing moves at all.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's amazing how quickly the deterministics flipped. It seems like they were locked in on some sort of storm tracking east of the Mississippi for a week's worth of runs and the we had that massive storm on an 18z run Monday.

I don't think there was any sort of a step down process. It's like they were drinking over Christmas and then sobered up and said "pattern conducive for eastern snow? No says I !" 

It may be the MJO is about to come out in 6 like y'all said over night. I saw GaWx mentioning that yesterday on the GFS suite's RMMs. Perfect timing I guess, lol. It looks like it is getting riled up on the less favorable regions:

 

 

If that is really what is going on, it'll take it at least a couple of weeks to cycle through into the Western Pac and would line up with what the OP Euro and GFS (non AI) showed over night. La Nina and MJO over the Maritime continent seems to = ye olden qpf fire hose. 

The other thing I noticed was that the long prophesied jet extension isn't quite as extensive as promised and that I supposed that would tend to pull the whole pattern back west some too. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I feel your frustrations.  Being a BAMA fan, the first qtr against OK I was livid. 
All I hear is Indiana will kill us.  I was hoping UT would beat IL.  My gosh the banter of people saying the SEC is overrated just got louder.  Sadly college football is imploding.  I feel for schools like Iowa State & OK state.  They literally have 16/17 players left on their teams.  The portal & $$$ are killing it quickly.  Who would really want to coach college these days.  It’s a 365 days job.  Pros is much more easier. 

The SEC isn’t as overrated as the Big 10, so there’s that! However fanbases of both of those conferences generally have no idea how terrible CFB has gotten. You guys are only just now seeing surface level stuff. And yes the sec and big 10 did it to the sport. I hope some humility finds its way back into the sport so that way people remember what made CFB great. The bluebloods have become absolute vampires, and not the sexy kind. It’s killing the spirit of the game.

[Weatheriscool]

44 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It's amazing how quickly the deterministics flipped. It seems like they were locked in on some sort of storm tracking east of the Mississippi for a week's worth of runs and the we had that massive storm on an 18z run Monday.

I don't think there was any sort of a step down process. It's like they were drinking over Christmas and then sobered up and said "pattern conducive for eastern snow? No says I !" 

It may be the MJO is about to come out in 6 like y'all said over night. I saw GaWx mentioning that yesterday on the GFS suite's RMMs. Perfect timing I guess, lol. It looks like it is getting riled up on the less favorable regions:

 

 

If that is really what is going on, it'll take it at least a couple of weeks to cycle through into the Western Pac and would line up with what the OP Euro and GFS (non AI) showed over night. La Nina and MJO over the Maritime continent seems to = ye olden qpf fire hose. 

The other thing I noticed was that the long prophesied jet extension isn't quite as extensive as promised and that I supposed that would tend to pull the whole pattern back west some too. 

I am not really able to comment on the deeper inner-workings of the MJO but it is super-frustrating to not have really any reliable American Modeling. It must have been really fun forecasting weather before the modern era, must of been why as a kid in the 1970's can recall local Nashville weather commercials bragging that they had a five day forecast, even that must have been difficult. I feel like we are back in that era with such flip flopping. I do not want to get my hopes up just yet for a wetter forecast but we sure could use it here! 

[*Flash*]

Per recent verification scores, it's a tad concerning the 0z GFS is more pro-cold than the 0z Euro, granted one run doesn't make a forecast. I imagine models are picking up on a transient warm spell before the hammer drop. As Carver noted last week, it just takes a few members to skew the batch. Still scratching my head why CPC is so warm for in their extended outlooks.

Also, 'tis interesting amidst the flip-flopping, there are signs a +TNH pattern may develop. That in tandem with a -EPO can work for most of the forum, though with the SE ridge risk, I prefer the 'old school' -NAO/-AO being a more dominant driver. At least the southern jet looks cooperative. Preferably, I like average to slightly below average precip for January/February given what that can imply. I recall past Nina winters that went super zonal in January. Doesn't look that way this go-around.

[Icy Hot]

9 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nice looks and decent agreement in general with cold placement and vastness of the airmass.

 

 

 

Only 16 days away… 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Icy Hot said:

Only 16 days away… 

Haha.  You are lucky I was posting maps at midnight to begin with.  I normally don't do the (model) night shift.  You're welcome.  They are free, so you get what you pay for around midnight......

[Carvers Gap]

I still think we are right on track for right around Jan 12.  I would not be surprised to see it speed up or be delayed by a day or two.  I also think we will have some minor chances prior.  Models have not been great w/ details or seeing cold fronts this year. They flip around a lot.  

We go through the same thing every year with the same complaints.  Sometimes models are simply too quick with the pattern change.  They also really struggle with the NAO.

Let us not forget they lost the pattern change in early December only to add it right back after 2-3 days when the pattern emerged from the 5-7 window where things get lost.  I am not saying that happens this time, but it is worth considering.

And no Icy, the pattern is not 16 days out...but I think you know that.  There are no guarantees, but roughly timed, the EPO starts to build on the 8th-9th. The 12z AIFGFS(admittedly not an overly reliable model) has the beginning of the pattern change inside of 240 hours.  In fact, I can make a pretty good argument the pattern change is underway now w/ the big -NAO which "should" retrograde into the EPO block.

In my mind, we lost a 1-2 cold fronts in the pattern w/ the cold sliding to our north.  Phase 6?  Maybe and sure looks like it.

The 12z GFS also has the ridge building into the eastern PAC around Jan 8th as well.  I was showing maps last night, because quite frankly...I was trying to stay awake which I halfway noted....turn and burn to Knoxville.

As noted the GFS (which has been truly awful this winter) had some phase 6 stuff yesterday.  I haven't looked today.  MJO plots at CPC have been largely unreliable this winter as the MJO has just flatlined.  The driver going forward is likely HL blocking, but there will be a likely transition in order to get to that point.

The biggest thing is to watch the 500 pattern and see if the EPO ridge keeps moving forward in time.  If it does, models should trend colder.  It looks to me like we are going to have to roll one ridge through the eastern pattern from Jan5-8th.

I will check back in a bit.  We rolled in last night at 3:00AM.  Just catching up.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS(so proceed at your own risk) has a monster Alaskan block by around 300.  So far(famous last words), the pattern at 500 is moving forward with time.

[Weatheriscool]

34 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS(so proceed at your own risk) has a monster Alaskan block by around 300.  So far(famous last words), the pattern at 500 is moving forward with time.

That was one cold and dry run for sure

[Carvers Gap]

The January 3rd slider which is rain...The 12z Euro has frozen precip at higher elevations in the Apps and in SW VA(northern sections).  Temps remain in the upper 30s and low 40s most of that day.  If that moves in at night...we could see some snow above 3000' IMHO...maybe lower.  That is a sneaky system.

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, Weatheriscool said:

That was one cold and dry run for sure

Who knows if the 12z GFS is right or not.  I certainly don't.  But for the sake of discussion...if that cold front comes in at the angle and slow speed that it does on that run, that is prime for over-running sometime after the 11th.  We have seen that repeatedly during the past few years with Nina winters.  

[Carvers Gap]

This is a pretty good trend from an albeit not-the-best model of reliability....This d11-16 5d map from the 12z GFS.  That is a big time winter pattern if it verifies.  

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the 12z Euro d10-15 pattern.  The noticeable difference is Alaska.  That Bering Straits low floods Canada with Pacific air.  While it does have precedent, I think that feature is likely wrong.  Get that our of there, and it is the GFS 12z run.

IMPORTANT:  What we are seeing(and this is under way even today) is a retrograding of the eastern North American ridge into the eastern Pacific.  How long does it stay there?  IDK.  It could keep retrograding.  But it is wild to watch the ridge get knocked down, and then "resurface" further west.  How that ridge retrogrades is going to be key.  A retrograding pattern has often been good to us regarding winter weather.

[jaxjagman]

Better get something fast,it looks rather bleak right now down the road with that strong ERW thats fixing to pass along the IDL the next few days,Maybe it will weaken some  but this could cause the tropical forcing  to shit towards the WP into the MC,probably end up seeing RMM madness continue,you're seemingly starting to see the NINA background getting taken out now even tho it's still NINA.